Rohan Murdeshwar
@timesnewrohan.me
And @matt-levine.bsky.social has this interesting counter to big-CRA critics who think the Eagan-Jones business model is the answer: lenders do their own credit analysis and so will understand the risk well internally; they only use CRAs to satisfy regulatory capital requirements.
July 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
And @matt-levine.bsky.social has this interesting counter to big-CRA critics who think the Eagan-Jones business model is the answer: lenders do their own credit analysis and so will understand the risk well internally; they only use CRAs to satisfy regulatory capital requirements.
Writing about the different market reactions to possible UK debt expansion after yesterday's PMQs versus US debt expansion after OBBBA, @weisenthal.bsky.social touches upon a point that I think we sometimes forget: the huge advantages of scale.
July 3, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Writing about the different market reactions to possible UK debt expansion after yesterday's PMQs versus US debt expansion after OBBBA, @weisenthal.bsky.social touches upon a point that I think we sometimes forget: the huge advantages of scale.
This is from Roger Crowley’s Conquerors on crucial military support from Timoji, a local Hindu privateer, for the Portuguese conquest of Goa. He incorrectly assumed the Portuguese would hand him the keys after ousting the Sultan of Bijapur.
June 5, 2025 at 8:47 AM
This is from Roger Crowley’s Conquerors on crucial military support from Timoji, a local Hindu privateer, for the Portuguese conquest of Goa. He incorrectly assumed the Portuguese would hand him the keys after ousting the Sultan of Bijapur.
The @financialtimes.com editorial board seems to forget what its own columnists have written in the past. The US has carte blanche because its "futile to try and use the local justice system". Everyone else must provide evidence and permit "an independent probe". buff.ly/gVjA1BJ and buff.ly/zMRpmxt
May 8, 2025 at 11:45 AM
The @financialtimes.com editorial board seems to forget what its own columnists have written in the past. The US has carte blanche because its "futile to try and use the local justice system". Everyone else must provide evidence and permit "an independent probe". buff.ly/gVjA1BJ and buff.ly/zMRpmxt
21/ The paranoid style inherently distrusts elites. "Cosmopolitans and intellectuals" have eroded old virtues - see Trump's attack on universities - and that the enemy controls media via "managed news" – a precursor to Trump’s "fake news" claims.
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
21/ The paranoid style inherently distrusts elites. "Cosmopolitans and intellectuals" have eroded old virtues - see Trump's attack on universities - and that the enemy controls media via "managed news" – a precursor to Trump’s "fake news" claims.
19/ The "paranoid style" historically saw foreign plots (Europe's monarchs, Pope) as "plotting our destruction" or seeing the Marshall Plan as an "evil hoax." Contemporary populist "anti-Europeanism" taps into this same vein of seeing international entanglements as conspiracies.
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
19/ The "paranoid style" historically saw foreign plots (Europe's monarchs, Pope) as "plotting our destruction" or seeing the Marshall Plan as an "evil hoax." Contemporary populist "anti-Europeanism" taps into this same vein of seeing international entanglements as conspiracies.
16/ And they evidently don’t use Hanlon’s razor. History isn't seen as a complex flow of events, mistakes, and competing interests, but as the deliberate machination of a hidden, malevolent will.
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
16/ And they evidently don’t use Hanlon’s razor. History isn't seen as a complex flow of events, mistakes, and competing interests, but as the deliberate machination of a hidden, malevolent will.
15/ Paranoids are also fooled by randomness, searching for patterns in the "noise" of history. They seek simple explanations for complex events, have a need for control in uncertain times, and have a tendency towards proportionality bias (big events must have big causes).
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
15/ Paranoids are also fooled by randomness, searching for patterns in the "noise" of history. They seek simple explanations for complex events, have a need for control in uncertain times, and have a tendency towards proportionality bias (big events must have big causes).
7/ The paranoia lies dormant, is triggered by economic or perceived cultural malaise and enabled by people (Trump/Musk in 2025; McCarthy/Hoover in 1950s).
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
7/ The paranoia lies dormant, is triggered by economic or perceived cultural malaise and enabled by people (Trump/Musk in 2025; McCarthy/Hoover in 1950s).
6/ And although the internet may make it seem like paranoia has increased, there’s little evidence of this. And even some evidence that belief in conspiracy theories is falling. buff.ly/Z908vA9
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
6/ And although the internet may make it seem like paranoia has increased, there’s little evidence of this. And even some evidence that belief in conspiracy theories is falling. buff.ly/Z908vA9
5/ In 2021, @paulkrugman asked “how much of what’s going on is simply group dynamics that have given pre-existing craziness license to express itself?” buff.ly/vVHx3kq
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
5/ In 2021, @paulkrugman asked “how much of what’s going on is simply group dynamics that have given pre-existing craziness license to express itself?” buff.ly/vVHx3kq
Reading Hofstadter's The Paranoid Style in American Politics feels, at least for someone with no knowledge of the philosophies underlying MAGA, a bit like getting the answer key when everyone else is scratching their heads. Should be required reading.
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Reading Hofstadter's The Paranoid Style in American Politics feels, at least for someone with no knowledge of the philosophies underlying MAGA, a bit like getting the answer key when everyone else is scratching their heads. Should be required reading.
First some history: since the nineteenth century London has always been a hub for bonds, not stocks. And, globally, the bond market is 4x the size of the stock market.
April 30, 2025 at 6:30 PM
First some history: since the nineteenth century London has always been a hub for bonds, not stocks. And, globally, the bond market is 4x the size of the stock market.
And the Norwegians have iodine tabs and the Germans and Poles have bunkers www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...
April 23, 2025 at 2:11 PM
And the Norwegians have iodine tabs and the Germans and Poles have bunkers www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...
Though the corresponding numbers in the UK are higher than I would've expected: 15% have an emergency supply kit and ~60% have non-perishable food and water www.ft.com/content/0024...
April 23, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Though the corresponding numbers in the UK are higher than I would've expected: 15% have an emergency supply kit and ~60% have non-perishable food and water www.ft.com/content/0024...
And some more wild numbers: in the event of an earthquake under Tokyo, electricity will take 4 days to recover, the water supply 17 days, and gas 6 weeks (!)
April 22, 2025 at 10:50 AM
And some more wild numbers: in the event of an earthquake under Tokyo, electricity will take 4 days to recover, the water supply 17 days, and gas 6 weeks (!)
Only a third of Tokyo, with its gold-standard emergency planning, has the minimum amount of stockpiles
April 22, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Only a third of Tokyo, with its gold-standard emergency planning, has the minimum amount of stockpiles
Is the fundamental question of all Indian political ideology: how do we keep the country together?
April 16, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Is the fundamental question of all Indian political ideology: how do we keep the country together?
This also reminded me of this comment below by @peterfrankopan.bsky.social of the deep-seated othering when we think about people outside of Europe; in this case the Seljuk Turks in C11 - C12. buff.ly/r4nKy5h
April 14, 2025 at 7:40 PM
This also reminded me of this comment below by @peterfrankopan.bsky.social of the deep-seated othering when we think about people outside of Europe; in this case the Seljuk Turks in C11 - C12. buff.ly/r4nKy5h
And ~80% of that $800 trillion number is derivatives.
April 9, 2025 at 8:00 PM
And ~80% of that $800 trillion number is derivatives.
In times like these, a reminder of who the boss in the room really is. Fixed income market (~$800 trillion) is 4x equities (~$200 trillion).
April 9, 2025 at 8:00 PM
In times like these, a reminder of who the boss in the room really is. Fixed income market (~$800 trillion) is 4x equities (~$200 trillion).
Niall Ferguson strives very hard to be the flag bearer for 21st century Orientalism. And for a historian, this 2011 article on Turkey is shockingly bad history.
April 9, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Niall Ferguson strives very hard to be the flag bearer for 21st century Orientalism. And for a historian, this 2011 article on Turkey is shockingly bad history.
Clearly Trump doesn't read history but if he did I'd bet he'd pick the wrong lessons.
April 8, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Clearly Trump doesn't read history but if he did I'd bet he'd pick the wrong lessons.
And my favourite: on being the non-striker in life.
April 7, 2025 at 9:00 PM
And my favourite: on being the non-striker in life.