Rohan Murdeshwar
@timesnewrohan.me
www.lseg.com
July 15, 2025 at 12:59 PM
And if that wasn't enough for a movie, the NAIC was bullied into rescinding its report on the dangers of inflated credit scores by small CRAs (who control 86% of the ratings of US insurers' private credit assets). buff.ly/PVDb9tO
July 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
And if that wasn't enough for a movie, the NAIC was bullied into rescinding its report on the dangers of inflated credit scores by small CRAs (who control 86% of the ratings of US insurers' private credit assets). buff.ly/PVDb9tO
For a $100m loan, junk-level B has a 9.5% capital charge; BBB- has a 1.5% charge. And because the buy-side is so concentrated - few lenders control almost all the business - the CRAs still need to satisfy their customers; only unlike 2008 the customers are buy-side not sell-side.
July 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
For a $100m loan, junk-level B has a 9.5% capital charge; BBB- has a 1.5% charge. And because the buy-side is so concentrated - few lenders control almost all the business - the CRAs still need to satisfy their customers; only unlike 2008 the customers are buy-side not sell-side.
And @matt-levine.bsky.social has this interesting counter to big-CRA critics who think the Eagan-Jones business model is the answer: lenders do their own credit analysis and so will understand the risk well internally; they only use CRAs to satisfy regulatory capital requirements.
July 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
And @matt-levine.bsky.social has this interesting counter to big-CRA critics who think the Eagan-Jones business model is the answer: lenders do their own credit analysis and so will understand the risk well internally; they only use CRAs to satisfy regulatory capital requirements.
If it took 24 hours for someone to do due diligence on the contents of my flat, I'd question the quality of that report; if it's DD on an entire company I'd certainly want my (little) money back.
July 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
If it took 24 hours for someone to do due diligence on the contents of my flat, I'd question the quality of that report; if it's DD on an entire company I'd certainly want my (little) money back.
Even if Eagan-Jones's fees are a % of S&P etc, who's paying anything at all for what sounds like no DD at all? "Analysts rarely visit company executives or personally inspect the businesses that borrow money. A call to the CFO is typically enough."
July 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Even if Eagan-Jones's fees are a % of S&P etc, who's paying anything at all for what sounds like no DD at all? "Analysts rarely visit company executives or personally inspect the businesses that borrow money. A call to the CFO is typically enough."
Throw in two whistleblowers who accused the owner and his wife of violating federal securities laws, and you just need to decide who to pick for the cast.
July 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Throw in two whistleblowers who accused the owner and his wife of violating federal securities laws, and you just need to decide who to pick for the cast.
Even this small part of the plot has it all: a 20-person credit rating agency run out of a 4 bedroom house in small-town Pennsylvania passing quick and questionable judgment on the creditworthiness of borrowers in a ~$2 trillion global industry.
July 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Even this small part of the plot has it all: a 20-person credit rating agency run out of a 4 bedroom house in small-town Pennsylvania passing quick and questionable judgment on the creditworthiness of borrowers in a ~$2 trillion global industry.
US 10Y yield in Jan was 4.5% and post OBBBA is *down* to 4.3%. In contrast, UK 10Y yield went from 4.5% to 4.68% in one day after PMQs.
July 3, 2025 at 12:24 PM
US 10Y yield in Jan was 4.5% and post OBBBA is *down* to 4.3%. In contrast, UK 10Y yield went from 4.5% to 4.68% in one day after PMQs.
He will obviously never feature in a history textbook in India.
June 5, 2025 at 8:47 AM
He will obviously never feature in a history textbook in India.
This is from Roger Crowley’s Conquerors on crucial military support from Timoji, a local Hindu privateer, for the Portuguese conquest of Goa. He incorrectly assumed the Portuguese would hand him the keys after ousting the Sultan of Bijapur.
June 5, 2025 at 8:47 AM
This is from Roger Crowley’s Conquerors on crucial military support from Timoji, a local Hindu privateer, for the Portuguese conquest of Goa. He incorrectly assumed the Portuguese would hand him the keys after ousting the Sultan of Bijapur.
22/ All this to say that there is nothing time-specific to the rise of Trumpism.
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
22/ All this to say that there is nothing time-specific to the rise of Trumpism.
21/ The paranoid style inherently distrusts elites. "Cosmopolitans and intellectuals" have eroded old virtues - see Trump's attack on universities - and that the enemy controls media via "managed news" – a precursor to Trump’s "fake news" claims.
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
21/ The paranoid style inherently distrusts elites. "Cosmopolitans and intellectuals" have eroded old virtues - see Trump's attack on universities - and that the enemy controls media via "managed news" – a precursor to Trump’s "fake news" claims.
20/ Fear of immigration has long fuelled the paranoid style. Hofstadter highlighted historical beliefs that "ignorant, ill-educated immigrants" constituted a "hostile tide... subsidized by 'potentates of Europe'." Clear parallels in some contemporary rhetoric.
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
20/ Fear of immigration has long fuelled the paranoid style. Hofstadter highlighted historical beliefs that "ignorant, ill-educated immigrants" constituted a "hostile tide... subsidized by 'potentates of Europe'." Clear parallels in some contemporary rhetoric.
19/ The "paranoid style" historically saw foreign plots (Europe's monarchs, Pope) as "plotting our destruction" or seeing the Marshall Plan as an "evil hoax." Contemporary populist "anti-Europeanism" taps into this same vein of seeing international entanglements as conspiracies.
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
19/ The "paranoid style" historically saw foreign plots (Europe's monarchs, Pope) as "plotting our destruction" or seeing the Marshall Plan as an "evil hoax." Contemporary populist "anti-Europeanism" taps into this same vein of seeing international entanglements as conspiracies.
18/ Hofstadter noted the "political leverage" that can be gained from the "animosities & passions of a small minority." This echoes in the modern paranoid style where a group feels dispossessed – that "America has been largely taken away from them and their kind."
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
18/ Hofstadter noted the "political leverage" that can be gained from the "animosities & passions of a small minority." This echoes in the modern paranoid style where a group feels dispossessed – that "America has been largely taken away from them and their kind."
17/ But importantly, the essay feels incredibly prescient today. It dissects a recurring political mindset that has striking parallels with contemporary populism & how figures like Trump tap into underlying paranoia.
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
17/ But importantly, the essay feels incredibly prescient today. It dissects a recurring political mindset that has striking parallels with contemporary populism & how figures like Trump tap into underlying paranoia.
16/ And they evidently don’t use Hanlon’s razor. History isn't seen as a complex flow of events, mistakes, and competing interests, but as the deliberate machination of a hidden, malevolent will.
May 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
16/ And they evidently don’t use Hanlon’s razor. History isn't seen as a complex flow of events, mistakes, and competing interests, but as the deliberate machination of a hidden, malevolent will.