TJ Terwilliger
@tj-terwilliger.bsky.social
Finance and investing. I like shareholder yield however I can get it, and no-brainers.
Find more of my writing at:
https://www.compoundingdividends.net
https://tjterwilliger.substack.com/
Find more of my writing at:
https://www.compoundingdividends.net
https://tjterwilliger.substack.com/
Current price targets for PayPal range from $60 to $120 for the next 12 months.
That's a 100% spread.
Nobody knows what will happen in the short term.
But here's what we DO know about the business...
That's a 100% spread.
Nobody knows what will happen in the short term.
But here's what we DO know about the business...
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Current price targets for PayPal range from $60 to $120 for the next 12 months.
That's a 100% spread.
Nobody knows what will happen in the short term.
But here's what we DO know about the business...
That's a 100% spread.
Nobody knows what will happen in the short term.
But here's what we DO know about the business...
Now they're cutting again.
PayPal is down 8% over the past 3 months.
Notice the pattern?
Price targets are following the stock price. They're not predicting it.
They're reacting to it.
PayPal is down 8% over the past 3 months.
Notice the pattern?
Price targets are following the stock price. They're not predicting it.
They're reacting to it.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Now they're cutting again.
PayPal is down 8% over the past 3 months.
Notice the pattern?
Price targets are following the stock price. They're not predicting it.
They're reacting to it.
PayPal is down 8% over the past 3 months.
Notice the pattern?
Price targets are following the stock price. They're not predicting it.
They're reacting to it.
April 2025: Wells Fargo CUT their price target.
What happened to PayPal from February to April?
Down 26%.
They cut their target AFTER the stock went down.
What happened to PayPal from February to April?
Down 26%.
They cut their target AFTER the stock went down.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
April 2025: Wells Fargo CUT their price target.
What happened to PayPal from February to April?
Down 26%.
They cut their target AFTER the stock went down.
What happened to PayPal from February to April?
Down 26%.
They cut their target AFTER the stock went down.
First, let's look at the pattern.
In October 2024, Wells Fargo RAISED their price target.
What happened to PayPal from August to October?
Up 21%.
They raised their target AFTER the stock went up.
In October 2024, Wells Fargo RAISED their price target.
What happened to PayPal from August to October?
Up 21%.
They raised their target AFTER the stock went up.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
First, let's look at the pattern.
In October 2024, Wells Fargo RAISED their price target.
What happened to PayPal from August to October?
Up 21%.
They raised their target AFTER the stock went up.
In October 2024, Wells Fargo RAISED their price target.
What happened to PayPal from August to October?
Up 21%.
They raised their target AFTER the stock went up.
Wells Fargo, Compass Point, and others are cutting $PYPL price targets.
Compass Point just dropped theirs to $56.
Should long-term investors be worried?
Let me show you what's really happening (and what Wall Street doesn't want you to see):
Compass Point just dropped theirs to $56.
Should long-term investors be worried?
Let me show you what's really happening (and what Wall Street doesn't want you to see):
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Wells Fargo, Compass Point, and others are cutting $PYPL price targets.
Compass Point just dropped theirs to $56.
Should long-term investors be worried?
Let me show you what's really happening (and what Wall Street doesn't want you to see):
Compass Point just dropped theirs to $56.
Should long-term investors be worried?
Let me show you what's really happening (and what Wall Street doesn't want you to see):
Don't take the markets personally:
December 11, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Don't take the markets personally:
Build a latticework of mental models
Knowing a lot about one thing isn’t enough.
You have to know the big ideas from multiple fields, and how they connect.
Focus on the things that change slowly.
Knowing a lot about one thing isn’t enough.
You have to know the big ideas from multiple fields, and how they connect.
Focus on the things that change slowly.
December 11, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Build a latticework of mental models
Knowing a lot about one thing isn’t enough.
You have to know the big ideas from multiple fields, and how they connect.
Focus on the things that change slowly.
Knowing a lot about one thing isn’t enough.
You have to know the big ideas from multiple fields, and how they connect.
Focus on the things that change slowly.
20 Quotes From Benjamin Graham:
December 10, 2025 at 2:04 PM
20 Quotes From Benjamin Graham:
Marks' actual bottom line:
"There can be no way to participate fully in the benefits without being exposed to the losses if enthusiasm proves excessive."
In other words: high potential returns require accepting high risk of loss.
"There can be no way to participate fully in the benefits without being exposed to the losses if enthusiasm proves excessive."
In other words: high potential returns require accepting high risk of loss.
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Marks' actual bottom line:
"There can be no way to participate fully in the benefits without being exposed to the losses if enthusiasm proves excessive."
In other words: high potential returns require accepting high risk of loss.
"There can be no way to participate fully in the benefits without being exposed to the losses if enthusiasm proves excessive."
In other words: high potential returns require accepting high risk of loss.
But there are counterarguments to the bubble thesis:
• AI already has 1 billion users
• Leading companies have real revenues and profits
• P/E ratios are reasonable (31x median vs 41x in dot-com)
• No IPO mania
• Established players, not just startups
• AI already has 1 billion users
• Leading companies have real revenues and profits
• P/E ratios are reasonable (31x median vs 41x in dot-com)
• No IPO mania
• Established players, not just startups
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
But there are counterarguments to the bubble thesis:
• AI already has 1 billion users
• Leading companies have real revenues and profits
• P/E ratios are reasonable (31x median vs 41x in dot-com)
• No IPO mania
• Established players, not just startups
• AI already has 1 billion users
• Leading companies have real revenues and profits
• P/E ratios are reasonable (31x median vs 41x in dot-com)
• No IPO mania
• Established players, not just startups
The debt part is what worries him most.
Companies are issuing 30-year bonds to fund AI investments.
But will today's chips and data centers still be valuable in 30 years?
Or will they be obsolete in 5?
Companies are issuing 30-year bonds to fund AI investments.
But will today's chips and data centers still be valuable in 30 years?
Or will they be obsolete in 5?
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
The debt part is what worries him most.
Companies are issuing 30-year bonds to fund AI investments.
But will today's chips and data centers still be valuable in 30 years?
Or will they be obsolete in 5?
Companies are issuing 30-year bonds to fund AI investments.
But will today's chips and data centers still be valuable in 30 years?
Or will they be obsolete in 5?
Marks points to Warren Buffett's lesson from the automobile:
2,000 car companies existed in the early 1900s.
Only 3 survived.
The auto transformed America but destroyed investor wealth.
Revolutionary technology ≠ investment returns.
2,000 car companies existed in the early 1900s.
Only 3 survived.
The auto transformed America but destroyed investor wealth.
Revolutionary technology ≠ investment returns.
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Marks points to Warren Buffett's lesson from the automobile:
2,000 car companies existed in the early 1900s.
Only 3 survived.
The auto transformed America but destroyed investor wealth.
Revolutionary technology ≠ investment returns.
2,000 car companies existed in the early 1900s.
Only 3 survived.
The auto transformed America but destroyed investor wealth.
Revolutionary technology ≠ investment returns.
So what's happening with AI right now?
• AI accounts for a huge portion of company capex
• AI spending is a large share of U.S. GDP growth
• AI stocks are responsible for 75% of S&P 500 gains
The numbers are staggering.
• AI accounts for a huge portion of company capex
• AI spending is a large share of U.S. GDP growth
• AI stocks are responsible for 75% of S&P 500 gains
The numbers are staggering.
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
So what's happening with AI right now?
• AI accounts for a huge portion of company capex
• AI spending is a large share of U.S. GDP growth
• AI stocks are responsible for 75% of S&P 500 gains
The numbers are staggering.
• AI accounts for a huge portion of company capex
• AI spending is a large share of U.S. GDP growth
• AI stocks are responsible for 75% of S&P 500 gains
The numbers are staggering.
Here's the paradox:
Inflection bubbles fund the infrastructure we need.
Without the dot-com bubble, we wouldn't have the fiber optic network that powers today's internet.
The bubble compressed decades of buildout into a few years.
But investors still lost fortunes.
Inflection bubbles fund the infrastructure we need.
Without the dot-com bubble, we wouldn't have the fiber optic network that powers today's internet.
The bubble compressed decades of buildout into a few years.
But investors still lost fortunes.
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Here's the paradox:
Inflection bubbles fund the infrastructure we need.
Without the dot-com bubble, we wouldn't have the fiber optic network that powers today's internet.
The bubble compressed decades of buildout into a few years.
But investors still lost fortunes.
Inflection bubbles fund the infrastructure we need.
Without the dot-com bubble, we wouldn't have the fiber optic network that powers today's internet.
The bubble compressed decades of buildout into a few years.
But investors still lost fortunes.
First, a key distinction most people miss:
There are TWO types of bubbles.
"Mean-reversion bubbles" destroy wealth (subprime mortgages).
"Inflection bubbles" accelerate progress AND destroy wealth (railroads, internet).
AI looks like the second kind.
There are TWO types of bubbles.
"Mean-reversion bubbles" destroy wealth (subprime mortgages).
"Inflection bubbles" accelerate progress AND destroy wealth (railroads, internet).
AI looks like the second kind.
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
First, a key distinction most people miss:
There are TWO types of bubbles.
"Mean-reversion bubbles" destroy wealth (subprime mortgages).
"Inflection bubbles" accelerate progress AND destroy wealth (railroads, internet).
AI looks like the second kind.
There are TWO types of bubbles.
"Mean-reversion bubbles" destroy wealth (subprime mortgages).
"Inflection bubbles" accelerate progress AND destroy wealth (railroads, internet).
AI looks like the second kind.
This is Howard Marks.
Warren Buffett says when one of Howard's memos hits his desk, he stops what he's doing and reads it.
He just released a new one asking: Is AI a bubble?
Here's what he sees happening now (and why this time might actually be different):
Warren Buffett says when one of Howard's memos hits his desk, he stops what he's doing and reads it.
He just released a new one asking: Is AI a bubble?
Here's what he sees happening now (and why this time might actually be different):
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
This is Howard Marks.
Warren Buffett says when one of Howard's memos hits his desk, he stops what he's doing and reads it.
He just released a new one asking: Is AI a bubble?
Here's what he sees happening now (and why this time might actually be different):
Warren Buffett says when one of Howard's memos hits his desk, he stops what he's doing and reads it.
He just released a new one asking: Is AI a bubble?
Here's what he sees happening now (and why this time might actually be different):
$ARE cut the dividend by 45%, but management is optimistic about the future of the life science industry.
It's currently at around $47/share and analysts think there's about $94/share of net asset value.
Anyone interested?
It's currently at around $47/share and analysts think there's about $94/share of net asset value.
Anyone interested?
December 5, 2025 at 3:01 PM
$ARE cut the dividend by 45%, but management is optimistic about the future of the life science industry.
It's currently at around $47/share and analysts think there's about $94/share of net asset value.
Anyone interested?
It's currently at around $47/share and analysts think there's about $94/share of net asset value.
Anyone interested?
Reminder that when your account is small, your savings rate matters more than your investment returns.
December 4, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Reminder that when your account is small, your savings rate matters more than your investment returns.
25 Cognitive Biases from Munger's Psychology of Human Misjudgment speech:
December 4, 2025 at 1:56 PM
25 Cognitive Biases from Munger's Psychology of Human Misjudgment speech:
20 Most Common Investing Mistakes
December 4, 2025 at 11:59 AM
20 Most Common Investing Mistakes
Getting jealous over someone else's portfolio just leads to panic buying, or chasing hot stocks.
Envy is a 'total net loss' because it doesn't help you, and distracts you from focusing on your own long-term plan.
Plus, it's not even fun!
Envy is a 'total net loss' because it doesn't help you, and distracts you from focusing on your own long-term plan.
Plus, it's not even fun!
December 3, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Getting jealous over someone else's portfolio just leads to panic buying, or chasing hot stocks.
Envy is a 'total net loss' because it doesn't help you, and distracts you from focusing on your own long-term plan.
Plus, it's not even fun!
Envy is a 'total net loss' because it doesn't help you, and distracts you from focusing on your own long-term plan.
Plus, it's not even fun!
Mistakes new investors make
December 3, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Mistakes new investors make
You don't just pay fees on your initial investment.
You pay them on every dollar of growth too.
A 2.3% annual fee over 20 years can cost you £100,000 compared to a 0.3% fee.
Same investments. Same strategy. £100,000 less.
Always choose the lowest-fee funds and brokerage accounts.
You pay them on every dollar of growth too.
A 2.3% annual fee over 20 years can cost you £100,000 compared to a 0.3% fee.
Same investments. Same strategy. £100,000 less.
Always choose the lowest-fee funds and brokerage accounts.
December 3, 2025 at 12:00 PM
You don't just pay fees on your initial investment.
You pay them on every dollar of growth too.
A 2.3% annual fee over 20 years can cost you £100,000 compared to a 0.3% fee.
Same investments. Same strategy. £100,000 less.
Always choose the lowest-fee funds and brokerage accounts.
You pay them on every dollar of growth too.
A 2.3% annual fee over 20 years can cost you £100,000 compared to a 0.3% fee.
Same investments. Same strategy. £100,000 less.
Always choose the lowest-fee funds and brokerage accounts.
Bob Farrell's 10 Market Rules to Remember
December 2, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Bob Farrell's 10 Market Rules to Remember
Warren Buffett says the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.
But you can only be patient if your short-term needs are covered.
That's the real secret to successful investing.
But you can only be patient if your short-term needs are covered.
That's the real secret to successful investing.
December 2, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Warren Buffett says the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.
But you can only be patient if your short-term needs are covered.
That's the real secret to successful investing.
But you can only be patient if your short-term needs are covered.
That's the real secret to successful investing.