TJ Terwilliger
@tj-terwilliger.bsky.social
Finance and investing. I like shareholder yield however I can get it, and no-brainers.
Find more of my writing at:
https://www.compoundingdividends.net
https://tjterwilliger.substack.com/
Find more of my writing at:
https://www.compoundingdividends.net
https://tjterwilliger.substack.com/
Bottom line:
Short-term price movements don't change the fundamentals.
PayPal is generating massive free cash flow, returning capital to shareholders, and growing key metrics.
Pay attention to what the business is doing. But don't confuse analyst sentiment with it.
Short-term price movements don't change the fundamentals.
PayPal is generating massive free cash flow, returning capital to shareholders, and growing key metrics.
Pay attention to what the business is doing. But don't confuse analyst sentiment with it.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Bottom line:
Short-term price movements don't change the fundamentals.
PayPal is generating massive free cash flow, returning capital to shareholders, and growing key metrics.
Pay attention to what the business is doing. But don't confuse analyst sentiment with it.
Short-term price movements don't change the fundamentals.
PayPal is generating massive free cash flow, returning capital to shareholders, and growing key metrics.
Pay attention to what the business is doing. But don't confuse analyst sentiment with it.
So what are long term investors missing vs Wall Street?
Probably nothing.
We're just playing a different game.
They're worried about being wrong in the next 3 months.
We're focused on where the business will be in 3 years.
Probably nothing.
We're just playing a different game.
They're worried about being wrong in the next 3 months.
We're focused on where the business will be in 3 years.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
So what are long term investors missing vs Wall Street?
Probably nothing.
We're just playing a different game.
They're worried about being wrong in the next 3 months.
We're focused on where the business will be in 3 years.
Probably nothing.
We're just playing a different game.
They're worried about being wrong in the next 3 months.
We're focused on where the business will be in 3 years.
This is the difference between trading and investing.
Traders need to predict next quarter's sentiment.
Investors need to understand the business trajectory.
PayPal looks to be executing well on the things that matter for long-term value creation.
Traders need to predict next quarter's sentiment.
Investors need to understand the business trajectory.
PayPal looks to be executing well on the things that matter for long-term value creation.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
This is the difference between trading and investing.
Traders need to predict next quarter's sentiment.
Investors need to understand the business trajectory.
PayPal looks to be executing well on the things that matter for long-term value creation.
Traders need to predict next quarter's sentiment.
Investors need to understand the business trajectory.
PayPal looks to be executing well on the things that matter for long-term value creation.
Let me repeat that.
PayPal is generating $6-7 BILLION in annual free cash flow.
They're buying back shares.
They just introduced a dividend.
Branded experiences grew 8% globally and 10% in the U.S. in Q3.
But Wall Street is focused on one quote about slower growth.
PayPal is generating $6-7 BILLION in annual free cash flow.
They're buying back shares.
They just introduced a dividend.
Branded experiences grew 8% globally and 10% in the U.S. in Q3.
But Wall Street is focused on one quote about slower growth.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Let me repeat that.
PayPal is generating $6-7 BILLION in annual free cash flow.
They're buying back shares.
They just introduced a dividend.
Branded experiences grew 8% globally and 10% in the U.S. in Q3.
But Wall Street is focused on one quote about slower growth.
PayPal is generating $6-7 BILLION in annual free cash flow.
They're buying back shares.
They just introduced a dividend.
Branded experiences grew 8% globally and 10% in the U.S. in Q3.
But Wall Street is focused on one quote about slower growth.
But here's what the market completely ignored from that same conference:
• Transaction margin dollar growth: 6-7%
• EPS growth: Mid-teens
• Annual free cash flow: $6-7 billion
• BNPL growth: 20% quarter over quarter
• Pay with Venmo growth: 40% quarter over quarter
• Transaction margin dollar growth: 6-7%
• EPS growth: Mid-teens
• Annual free cash flow: $6-7 billion
• BNPL growth: 20% quarter over quarter
• Pay with Venmo growth: 40% quarter over quarter
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
But here's what the market completely ignored from that same conference:
• Transaction margin dollar growth: 6-7%
• EPS growth: Mid-teens
• Annual free cash flow: $6-7 billion
• BNPL growth: 20% quarter over quarter
• Pay with Venmo growth: 40% quarter over quarter
• Transaction margin dollar growth: 6-7%
• EPS growth: Mid-teens
• Annual free cash flow: $6-7 billion
• BNPL growth: 20% quarter over quarter
• Pay with Venmo growth: 40% quarter over quarter
The recent negative sentiment centers on one thing:
CFO Jamie Miller said at a conference that consumers were spending less.
The market latched onto this quote about Q4 branded checkout growing "a couple points slower" than Q3.
Slower growth. Not negative growth.
CFO Jamie Miller said at a conference that consumers were spending less.
The market latched onto this quote about Q4 branded checkout growing "a couple points slower" than Q3.
Slower growth. Not negative growth.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
The recent negative sentiment centers on one thing:
CFO Jamie Miller said at a conference that consumers were spending less.
The market latched onto this quote about Q4 branded checkout growing "a couple points slower" than Q3.
Slower growth. Not negative growth.
CFO Jamie Miller said at a conference that consumers were spending less.
The market latched onto this quote about Q4 branded checkout growing "a couple points slower" than Q3.
Slower growth. Not negative growth.
Current price targets for PayPal range from $60 to $120 for the next 12 months.
That's a 100% spread.
Nobody knows what will happen in the short term.
But here's what we DO know about the business...
That's a 100% spread.
Nobody knows what will happen in the short term.
But here's what we DO know about the business...
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Current price targets for PayPal range from $60 to $120 for the next 12 months.
That's a 100% spread.
Nobody knows what will happen in the short term.
But here's what we DO know about the business...
That's a 100% spread.
Nobody knows what will happen in the short term.
But here's what we DO know about the business...
Here's the blunt answer on what these analysts are seeing:
Their price targets are diverging from the stock price in the short term.
They look 'wrong.'
Their jobs are at risk.
Incentives always matter.
Their price targets are diverging from the stock price in the short term.
They look 'wrong.'
Their jobs are at risk.
Incentives always matter.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Here's the blunt answer on what these analysts are seeing:
Their price targets are diverging from the stock price in the short term.
They look 'wrong.'
Their jobs are at risk.
Incentives always matter.
Their price targets are diverging from the stock price in the short term.
They look 'wrong.'
Their jobs are at risk.
Incentives always matter.
Now they're cutting again.
PayPal is down 8% over the past 3 months.
Notice the pattern?
Price targets are following the stock price. They're not predicting it.
They're reacting to it.
PayPal is down 8% over the past 3 months.
Notice the pattern?
Price targets are following the stock price. They're not predicting it.
They're reacting to it.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Now they're cutting again.
PayPal is down 8% over the past 3 months.
Notice the pattern?
Price targets are following the stock price. They're not predicting it.
They're reacting to it.
PayPal is down 8% over the past 3 months.
Notice the pattern?
Price targets are following the stock price. They're not predicting it.
They're reacting to it.
April 2025: Wells Fargo CUT their price target.
What happened to PayPal from February to April?
Down 26%.
They cut their target AFTER the stock went down.
What happened to PayPal from February to April?
Down 26%.
They cut their target AFTER the stock went down.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
April 2025: Wells Fargo CUT their price target.
What happened to PayPal from February to April?
Down 26%.
They cut their target AFTER the stock went down.
What happened to PayPal from February to April?
Down 26%.
They cut their target AFTER the stock went down.
First, let's look at the pattern.
In October 2024, Wells Fargo RAISED their price target.
What happened to PayPal from August to October?
Up 21%.
They raised their target AFTER the stock went up.
In October 2024, Wells Fargo RAISED their price target.
What happened to PayPal from August to October?
Up 21%.
They raised their target AFTER the stock went up.
December 11, 2025 at 5:58 PM
First, let's look at the pattern.
In October 2024, Wells Fargo RAISED their price target.
What happened to PayPal from August to October?
Up 21%.
They raised their target AFTER the stock went up.
In October 2024, Wells Fargo RAISED their price target.
What happened to PayPal from August to October?
Up 21%.
They raised their target AFTER the stock went up.
No idea. I don’t think AI itself is going anywhere. I think the most likely outcome is similar to the fiber boom. We overbuild infrastructure that takes years for demand to fill in.
December 11, 2025 at 12:08 PM
No idea. I don’t think AI itself is going anywhere. I think the most likely outcome is similar to the fiber boom. We overbuild infrastructure that takes years for demand to fill in.
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Then hit follow → @tj-terwilliger.bsky.social for more threads breaking down investing insights.
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
If you enjoyed this breakdown, jump back to the top to:
• Bookmark it
• Retweet to share with others
• Reply with your biggest takeaway
Then hit follow → @tj-terwilliger.bsky.social for more threads breaking down investing insights.
• Bookmark it
• Retweet to share with others
• Reply with your biggest takeaway
Then hit follow → @tj-terwilliger.bsky.social for more threads breaking down investing insights.
The question isn't whether AI will change the world.
It will.
The question is whether today's prices and investments will produce returns that justify the risk.
We won't know the answer for years.
It will.
The question is whether today's prices and investments will produce returns that justify the risk.
We won't know the answer for years.
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
The question isn't whether AI will change the world.
It will.
The question is whether today's prices and investments will produce returns that justify the risk.
We won't know the answer for years.
It will.
The question is whether today's prices and investments will produce returns that justify the risk.
We won't know the answer for years.
TL;DR:
• AI is likely an "inflection bubble" that will transform society
• These bubbles accelerate progress but destroy early investor wealth
• Massive unknowns make predicting winners nearly impossible
• Debt financing adds extra risk
• Moderation beats all-or-nothing
• AI is likely an "inflection bubble" that will transform society
• These bubbles accelerate progress but destroy early investor wealth
• Massive unknowns make predicting winners nearly impossible
• Debt financing adds extra risk
• Moderation beats all-or-nothing
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
TL;DR:
• AI is likely an "inflection bubble" that will transform society
• These bubbles accelerate progress but destroy early investor wealth
• Massive unknowns make predicting winners nearly impossible
• Debt financing adds extra risk
• Moderation beats all-or-nothing
• AI is likely an "inflection bubble" that will transform society
• These bubbles accelerate progress but destroy early investor wealth
• Massive unknowns make predicting winners nearly impossible
• Debt financing adds extra risk
• Moderation beats all-or-nothing
His advice?
Don't go all-in and risk ruin.
But don't stay all-out and miss the revolution.
"A moderate position, applied with selectivity and prudence, seems like the best approach."
Balance is everything.
Don't go all-in and risk ruin.
But don't stay all-out and miss the revolution.
"A moderate position, applied with selectivity and prudence, seems like the best approach."
Balance is everything.
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
His advice?
Don't go all-in and risk ruin.
But don't stay all-out and miss the revolution.
"A moderate position, applied with selectivity and prudence, seems like the best approach."
Balance is everything.
Don't go all-in and risk ruin.
But don't stay all-out and miss the revolution.
"A moderate position, applied with selectivity and prudence, seems like the best approach."
Balance is everything.
Marks' actual bottom line:
"There can be no way to participate fully in the benefits without being exposed to the losses if enthusiasm proves excessive."
In other words: high potential returns require accepting high risk of loss.
"There can be no way to participate fully in the benefits without being exposed to the losses if enthusiasm proves excessive."
In other words: high potential returns require accepting high risk of loss.
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Marks' actual bottom line:
"There can be no way to participate fully in the benefits without being exposed to the losses if enthusiasm proves excessive."
In other words: high potential returns require accepting high risk of loss.
"There can be no way to participate fully in the benefits without being exposed to the losses if enthusiasm proves excessive."
In other words: high potential returns require accepting high risk of loss.
Here's what makes AI different from past bubbles:
It's not just a tool for humans.
It might replace human cognition entirely.
Coding jobs are already being automated at world-class levels.
This isn't just disruption. It's replacement.
It's not just a tool for humans.
It might replace human cognition entirely.
Coding jobs are already being automated at world-class levels.
This isn't just disruption. It's replacement.
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Here's what makes AI different from past bubbles:
It's not just a tool for humans.
It might replace human cognition entirely.
Coding jobs are already being automated at world-class levels.
This isn't just disruption. It's replacement.
It's not just a tool for humans.
It might replace human cognition entirely.
Coding jobs are already being automated at world-class levels.
This isn't just disruption. It's replacement.
But there are counterarguments to the bubble thesis:
• AI already has 1 billion users
• Leading companies have real revenues and profits
• P/E ratios are reasonable (31x median vs 41x in dot-com)
• No IPO mania
• Established players, not just startups
• AI already has 1 billion users
• Leading companies have real revenues and profits
• P/E ratios are reasonable (31x median vs 41x in dot-com)
• No IPO mania
• Established players, not just startups
December 10, 2025 at 11:56 AM
But there are counterarguments to the bubble thesis:
• AI already has 1 billion users
• Leading companies have real revenues and profits
• P/E ratios are reasonable (31x median vs 41x in dot-com)
• No IPO mania
• Established players, not just startups
• AI already has 1 billion users
• Leading companies have real revenues and profits
• P/E ratios are reasonable (31x median vs 41x in dot-com)
• No IPO mania
• Established players, not just startups