Tobias Fella
@tobiaspfella.bsky.social
Project Director & Senior Researcher @ifshhamburg.bsky.social I Military Affairs I Strategy I Deterrence I Risk Reduction I Trump I Berlin
"Nach der Ankündigung von US-Präsident Trump zu möglichen Atomtests folgt nun die Antwort des russischen Präsidenten: Sollten die USA dies tun, würde Russland nachziehen. Vorbereitungen habe er bereits angeordnet, so Putin." www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asie...
Nach Trumps Ankündigung: Putin erwägt Wiederaufnahme von Atomtests
Nach der Ankündigung von US-Präsident Trump zu möglichen Atomtests folgt nun die Antwort des russischen Präsidenten: Sollten die USA dies tun, würde Russland nachziehen. Vorbereitungen habe er bereits...
www.tagesschau.de
November 6, 2025 at 7:28 AM
"Nach der Ankündigung von US-Präsident Trump zu möglichen Atomtests folgt nun die Antwort des russischen Präsidenten: Sollten die USA dies tun, würde Russland nachziehen. Vorbereitungen habe er bereits angeordnet, so Putin." www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asie...
"U.S. military officials involved with President Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements [...] a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion." www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Exclusive: US military officials required to sign NDAs tied to Latin America mission, sources say
U.S. military officials involved with President Donald Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements, three U.S. officials say, a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion.
www.reuters.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:32 AM
"U.S. military officials involved with President Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements [...] a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion." www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Reposted by Tobias Fella
Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.
High Stakes Promises: The Challenge of Security Guarantees for Ukraine | International Crisis Group
Ukraine is asking its partners for security guarantees – ideally now, but certainly before it makes any deal with Russia. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain why this topic is so fraught for Ukr...
www.crisisgroup.org
October 23, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.
Reposted by Tobias Fella
Why the impact of Poland and its NATO allies' decision to shoot down Russian drones may well be stabilizing. Expanding a bit on my Bluesky thread from yesterday with an entry in the @crisisgroup.org Analyst's Notebook series.
Drones over Poland | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker analyses the implications of the decision by Poland and its NATO allies to shoot down Russian drones over Polish territory on 9 September
www.crisisgroup.org
September 11, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Why the impact of Poland and its NATO allies' decision to shoot down Russian drones may well be stabilizing. Expanding a bit on my Bluesky thread from yesterday with an entry in the @crisisgroup.org Analyst's Notebook series.
Reposted by Tobias Fella
Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7
September 10, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7
Reposted by Tobias Fella
Germany’s defence debate is stuck in a numbers game – more tanks, jets, and spending. @tobiaspfella.bsky.social and I argue that what’s missing is a genuine strategic debate. We illustrate this by examining the newly introduced category of “Medium Forces.”
The Strategic Void in Germany’s Defense Debate
The debate on the Medium Forces can serve as an example of both the progress and the challenges of the German defense debate.
nationalinterest.org
September 10, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Germany’s defence debate is stuck in a numbers game – more tanks, jets, and spending. @tobiaspfella.bsky.social and I argue that what’s missing is a genuine strategic debate. We illustrate this by examining the newly introduced category of “Medium Forces.”
What could Europe have done differently to have more say in its own security today? I discussed this with Web.de News in context of the upcoming Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, web.de/magazine/pol...
Die Großen reden – und die EU schaut zu
Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (CDU) hat im Vorfeld des Putin-Trump-Treffens in Alaska zu Vorbereitungsgesprächen geladen – unter anderem mit US-Präsident Donald Trump. Denn die Europäer treibt vor alle...
web.de
August 14, 2025 at 12:09 PM
What could Europe have done differently to have more say in its own security today? I discussed this with Web.de News in context of the upcoming Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, web.de/magazine/pol...
I was interviewed by @zdfde.bsky.social (ZDFheute) about current discussions on territorial concessions ahead of the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. www.zdfheute.de/video/heute-...
Diskussion um Gebietsabtretungen
Vor den Gipfeln zu Wegen hin zu einem möglichen Frieden sorgt der Vorschlag von ukrainischen Gebietsabtretungen in der EU mehrheitlich für Ablehnung.
www.zdfheute.de
August 13, 2025 at 7:50 AM
I was interviewed by @zdfde.bsky.social (ZDFheute) about current discussions on territorial concessions ahead of the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. www.zdfheute.de/video/heute-...
I was interviewed by the Pforzheimer Zeitung and made the argument that we are currently in a phase of nuclear rearmament. www.pz-news.de/politik_arti...
Am nuklearen Scheideweg: 80 Jahre nach Hiroshima warnt ein Experte im PZ-Gespräch - Politik - Pforzheimer-Zeitung
Pforzheim/Hiroshima. Es ist 8:16 Uhr an jenem 6. August 1945, als der Tod in Hiroshima vom Himmel fällt. Rund 80.000 Menschen sterben in einem ...
www.pz-news.de
August 7, 2025 at 12:31 PM
I was interviewed by the Pforzheimer Zeitung and made the argument that we are currently in a phase of nuclear rearmament. www.pz-news.de/politik_arti...
I was interviewed by Jutta Sonnewald via @zdfde.bsky.social about the idea of a drone wall on NATO’s eastern border. www.zdfheute.de/politik/deut...
Drohnen-Schutzschirm an der Nato-Ostflanke: Was hinter der Idee deutscher Start-Ups steckt
Rüstungsfirmen aus Deutschland wollen einen Schutzschirm aus Drohnen an der Nato-Ostflanke. Was steckt dahinter? Und was sagt die Bundeswehr?
www.zdfheute.de
July 13, 2025 at 9:39 AM
I was interviewed by Jutta Sonnewald via @zdfde.bsky.social about the idea of a drone wall on NATO’s eastern border. www.zdfheute.de/politik/deut...
I gave an interview to @rbb24.de about US policy on Ukraine. I explained why it’s of limited value to focus only on single Trump administration decisions. What matters is the structural transformation of the US and its consequences. www.inforadio.de/rubriken/int...
Sicherheitsexperte: Trump bleibt Klarheit schuldig
Russland und die Ukraine sind von einem Frieden weit entfernt – was auch US-Präsident Trump frustriert. Der Sicherheitsexperte Tobias Fella sieht darin jedoch keine Wende in der Ukraine-Politik der US...
www.inforadio.de
July 10, 2025 at 6:54 AM
I gave an interview to @rbb24.de about US policy on Ukraine. I explained why it’s of limited value to focus only on single Trump administration decisions. What matters is the structural transformation of the US and its consequences. www.inforadio.de/rubriken/int...
Reposted by Tobias Fella
„Der Begriff Drohnenwall suggeriert fälschlicherweise, es könnte eine einfache, günstige und flächendeckende Lösung zur Verteidigung der Nato-Ostflanke geben, die völlige Sicherheit bietet.“
My interview with Marc Hasse of DER SPIEGEL on the NATO drone wall was featured in a report by Web.de, web.de/magazine/pol...
Deutsches Start-up will allein mit 100.000 Drohnen Nato-Ostflanke verteidigen
Drohnen können Milliarden Euro teures Kriegsgerät und massenhafte Rekrutierung überflüssig machen, behauptet ein deutsches Start-up. Kann Verteidigung so einfach sein? Experten sehen die Aussage kriti...
web.de
June 25, 2025 at 6:29 AM
„Der Begriff Drohnenwall suggeriert fälschlicherweise, es könnte eine einfache, günstige und flächendeckende Lösung zur Verteidigung der Nato-Ostflanke geben, die völlige Sicherheit bietet.“
My interview with Marc Hasse of DER SPIEGEL on the NATO drone wall was featured in a report by Web.de, web.de/magazine/pol...
Deutsches Start-up will allein mit 100.000 Drohnen Nato-Ostflanke verteidigen
Drohnen können Milliarden Euro teures Kriegsgerät und massenhafte Rekrutierung überflüssig machen, behauptet ein deutsches Start-up. Kann Verteidigung so einfach sein? Experten sehen die Aussage kriti...
web.de
June 25, 2025 at 6:13 AM
My interview with Marc Hasse of DER SPIEGEL on the NATO drone wall was featured in a report by Web.de, web.de/magazine/pol...
Marc Hasse (@marc-hasse.bsky.social) from @spiegel.de interviewed me about the concept of a NATO drone wall. www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...
(S+) Bedrohung durch Russland: 100.000 Drohnen an der Nato-Ostflanke – was würde das bringen?
Eine deutsche Firma wirbt für einen »Drohnenwall« zum Schutz gegen Russland. Tatsächlich haben die ferngesteuerten Flugobjekte den Krieg revolutioniert. Aber sie haben entscheidende Schwachpunkte.
www.spiegel.de
June 25, 2025 at 6:08 AM
Marc Hasse (@marc-hasse.bsky.social) from @spiegel.de interviewed me about the concept of a NATO drone wall. www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...
Reposted by Tobias Fella
Iran says parliament is preparing bill to leave nuclear non-proliferation treaty - www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Iran foreign ministry says parliament is preparing bill to leave NPT
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that the Iranian parliament is preparing a bill to leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), adding that Tehran remains opposed to developing of weapons of mass destruction.
www.reuters.com
June 17, 2025 at 6:49 AM
Iran says parliament is preparing bill to leave nuclear non-proliferation treaty - www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Reposted by Tobias Fella
1/ Very important signal that UK might return to air-launched tactical nuclear forces by buying F-35A and participating in US nuclear sharing arrangements. There had been indications that UK was preparing to be able to host B61 tactical nuclear weapons. www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
British fighter jets to carry nuclear bombs
American-made planes armed with tactical weapons would be the UK’s biggest defence expansion since the Cold War
www.thetimes.com
June 1, 2025 at 4:51 AM
1/ Very important signal that UK might return to air-launched tactical nuclear forces by buying F-35A and participating in US nuclear sharing arrangements. There had been indications that UK was preparing to be able to host B61 tactical nuclear weapons. www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
"President Donald Trump is expected to announce he has selected the path forward for his ambitious Golden Dome missile defense shield, a U.S. official said on Tuesday." www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Trump to make Golden Dome announcement on Tuesday, US official says
President Donald Trump is expected to announce he has selected the path forward for his ambitious Golden Dome missile defense shield, a U.S. official said on Tuesday.
www.reuters.com
May 20, 2025 at 3:26 PM
"President Donald Trump is expected to announce he has selected the path forward for his ambitious Golden Dome missile defense shield, a U.S. official said on Tuesday." www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
"Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland, in what NATO officials describe as the early stages of a long-term buildup", www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/05/19/s...
Satellite Images Show Russian Military Buildup Near Finland – NYT - The Moscow Times
Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland, in what NATO officials describe as the early stages of a long-term buildup, The New York Times reported Monday.
www.themoscowtimes.com
May 20, 2025 at 6:48 AM
"Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland, in what NATO officials describe as the early stages of a long-term buildup", www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/05/19/s...
"U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had 'sort of' agreed to the terms." www.reuters.com/world/trump-...
Trump says US close to a nuclear deal with Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had "sort of" agreed to the terms.
www.reuters.com
May 15, 2025 at 8:14 AM
"U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had 'sort of' agreed to the terms." www.reuters.com/world/trump-...
"French President Emmanuel Macron said he was 'ready to open a discussion' with European allies about stationing France’s nuclear weapons on their soil, in an effort to beef up defences against Russia." www.ft.com/content/9623...
Emmanuel Macron open to stationing French nuclear weapons in other European nations
French president in talks with Germany and Poland over whether warheads can protect them against Russia
www.ft.com
May 15, 2025 at 6:51 AM
"French President Emmanuel Macron said he was 'ready to open a discussion' with European allies about stationing France’s nuclear weapons on their soil, in an effort to beef up defences against Russia." www.ft.com/content/9623...
Reposted by Tobias Fella
Our new FAS Nuclear Notebook on Russian nuclear forces is now available. We estimate a stockpile of just over 4,300 warheads, modernizations, but also delays. Earlier STRATCOM projection of significant increase in tac nukes has not yet materialized. www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....
May 13, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Our new FAS Nuclear Notebook on Russian nuclear forces is now available. We estimate a stockpile of just over 4,300 warheads, modernizations, but also delays. Earlier STRATCOM projection of significant increase in tac nukes has not yet materialized. www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....
Reposted by Tobias Fella
Meine Kollegen @percepticon.bsky.social und Mateusz Łabuz zur Manipulierbarkeit von Large Language Models (vulgo: KI). Verstörend und lesenswert.
background.tagesspiegel.de/it-und-cyber...
background.tagesspiegel.de/it-und-cyber...
KI-Hintertür in die Demokratie
Es klingt beinahe dystopisch: Große Sprachmodelle reproduzieren Themen russischer Desinformation in 33 Prozent der von Forschenden beobachteten Fälle. Russische Desinformationsakteure versuchen zunehm...
background.tagesspiegel.de
April 10, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Meine Kollegen @percepticon.bsky.social und Mateusz Łabuz zur Manipulierbarkeit von Large Language Models (vulgo: KI). Verstörend und lesenswert.
background.tagesspiegel.de/it-und-cyber...
background.tagesspiegel.de/it-und-cyber...
Current developments in the US are the result of structural transformations. Focusing on individual actors alone provides an incomplete picture. Furthermore, the idealized image of America held by many transatlanticists is a myth that has contributed to ineffective European policies toward the US.
April 7, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Current developments in the US are the result of structural transformations. Focusing on individual actors alone provides an incomplete picture. Furthermore, the idealized image of America held by many transatlanticists is a myth that has contributed to ineffective European policies toward the US.
Reposted by Tobias Fella
If you feel like taking your mind off the tariffs, Ulrich Kühn, @profonderco.bsky.social, @hfayet.bsky.social, @andrewfutter.bsky.social, James Acton, @paulvanhooft.bsky.social, @bollfrass.bsky.social, George Perkovich, and I have written about Eurodeterrence. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Taking the Pulse: Can Europeans Build Their Independent Extended Nuclear Deterrent?
Confronted with a U.S. disengagement and the Russian threat, Europeans are reconsidering their stance on nuclear deterrence. Given the capabilities of the French and British arsenals, can Europe devel...
carnegieendowment.org
April 3, 2025 at 4:18 PM
If you feel like taking your mind off the tariffs, Ulrich Kühn, @profonderco.bsky.social, @hfayet.bsky.social, @andrewfutter.bsky.social, James Acton, @paulvanhooft.bsky.social, @bollfrass.bsky.social, George Perkovich, and I have written about Eurodeterrence. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
"Pete Hegseth will not attend a gathering of 50 countries to coordinate military support for Ukraine, multiple European officials and a U.S. official said — the first time the coalition will gather without America’s secretary of defense participating." www.defensenews.com/pentagon/202...
In first, Hegseth to skip multinational meeting on Ukraine support
The April 11 meeting will mark the first time the coalition will gather without America’s secretary of defense participating.
www.defensenews.com
April 3, 2025 at 8:44 AM
"Pete Hegseth will not attend a gathering of 50 countries to coordinate military support for Ukraine, multiple European officials and a U.S. official said — the first time the coalition will gather without America’s secretary of defense participating." www.defensenews.com/pentagon/202...