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Todd Tucker

@toddntucker.com

9.3K followers 2.3K following 2.8K posts

Director, Industrial Policy & Trade, @RooseveltInstitute.org, @RooseveltForward.org. Political scientist of economic transitions, administrative states, Bidenomics, Trumpnomics. Fellow @ Harvard Kennedy School. PhD.

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · Sep 8

NEW from me @newrepublic.com:

If progressives don’t seize this moment to define a democratic, public-minded state capitalism, they will find themselves living in one designed by the Trump administration.
newrepublic.com/article/2000...

Democrats: Don’t Let Trump Define What State Capitalism Can Be

There’s no turning back from Trump’s moves on Intel and U.S. Steel. The challenge is to make public ownership serve the people.

newrepublic.com

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Reposted by Todd Tucker

Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 6d

NEW from @betonyjones.bsky.social @rooseveltinstitute.org: Tying Labor Standards to Clean Energy Incentives: How Biden’s Department of Energy Tackled Climate Industrial Policy.

Betony shows how DOE reorganized to center workers in the energy transition.
rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...

Tying Labor Standards to Clean Energy Incentives: How Biden’s Department of Energy Tackled Climate Industrial Policy - Roosevelt Institute

In a new analysis, Betony Jones explores the efficacy of the Biden administration's incentive-based, equity-conscious industrial strategy approach and the role of government in shaping markets. Despite promising results from aligning climate goals to labor standards, equity, and economic growth at the Department of Energy, the administration’s efforts also highlighted the challenges of establishing long-term economic transformation in a politically fragmented environment.

https://rooseveltinstitute.org/publications/tying-labor-standards-to-clean-energy/?utm_m[…]tm_campaign=staffshare202510&utm_content=cleanenergylabor

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 3h

US clean energy projections cut in half for the decade, while India, Saudi Arabia and other countries surge ahead
www.ft.com/content/2fa6...

Global solar and wind power surges despite US green cuts under Trump

Renewable energy held back in world’s biggest economy while growing in India, the Middle East and Africa

www.ft.com

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 22h

As a formal matter, the board seat will allow much more visibility and influence over day to day corporate operations. The golden share arrangement was just an obligation to get written permission before taking certain enumerated actions.

Practically speaking, both deals allow informal sway.

Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

Looks like it's the DPA Fund, which Congress needs to reauthorize.

Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

However, all this is contingent on the Defense Production Act - which expired last week - being reauthorized by the end of March. That could be a lift!

Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

Another difference from other deals - the US government gets a board seat.

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

The name change to "Department of War" is having at least one cosmetic import: it's the label Trilogy Metals is using when describing the federal equity investment.
trilogymetals.com/news-and-med...

Trilogy Metals Inc. | Trilogy Metals Announces Strategic Investment by US Federal Government

Trilogy Metals Inc. is advancing exploration at the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects in Alaska's Ambler Mining District

trilogymetals.com

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

Worth noting, however, he's been a shareholder since 2012, when Trump was not yet a politician - much less a second term president.

And stock valuations would be expected to go up on any significant government intervention - equity infusion or otherwise.

Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

Value of Trump donor's shares up more than 3x.

"It’s not the first time Trump’s government has moved the market by investing directly in stocks this year—it has taken stakes in Intel, MP Materials and Lithium Americas... but none as significantly as Trilogy."
www.forbes.com/sites/hanktu...

Billionaire Trump Donor Paulson Scores Windfall Thanks To Government’s Investment In Trilogy Metals

One of Donald Trump’s earliest supporters on Wall Street owns a stake in the tiny mining business that tripled overnight on news of the government’s investment.

www.forbes.com

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

Greer on “managed trade”: “I don't want to be dependent on the Chinese or think they want to be dependent on us either. But I think if we have a healthy trading relationship where we find goods that we can trade with each other...that’s" confidence-building
subscriber.politicopro.com/newsletter/2...

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

"The Trump administration was taking a “real capital markets focus” to establish domestic supply chains for critical minerals, said one former DOE official. That was a marked change from the government’s recent approach of avoiding perception of “picking winners”.
www.ft.com/content/8951...

US government to take 10% stake in Canada’s Trilogy Metals

Alaskan road project opening remote areas for mining approved as US looks to break dependency on China for critical resources

www.ft.com

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

The US is charging an $80 minimum fee on packages coming in, whereas the EU is considering going from 0 under de minimis exemption to a 2 Euro fee. The rub: lots of China exports are being diverted from the US to the EU - risking the destruction of EU industry.

Alice Hancock @alicemhancock.bsky.social · 2d

Clothes exports from China to the EU have jumped 20% in value and volume this year, prompting accusations that EU politicians are still not looking after its industry.

www.ft.com/content/245f...

China reroutes clothes exports to Europe after US tariffs upset trade

European textiles industry body says Chinese companies are selling in ‘aggressive’ way

www.ft.com

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

Good background here from @tracyalloway.bsky.social and @weisenthal.bsky.social about why tech and AI companies are backing away from net zero commitments: there is no way to build Machine God quickly without natural gas.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/j...

James van Geelen on the Next Phase of the AI Buildout

Podcast Episode · Odd Lots · 10/06/2025 · 39m

podcasts.apple.com

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

This'll be the bumper sticker for the next political faction after Abundance.

Sanae Takaichi: "I am determined to confront various issues rather than feel happy."
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/04/w...

Japan Is Set for Its First Female Prime Minister

www.nytimes.com

Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

“Old-school labor populism, it’s not something that I love personally,” Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket said in a recent interview. “But that is actually, probably the single most electorally potent wing of the party.”

Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 1d

Tim Shenk on FDR to Dan Osborn: "The dirty secret of American politics is how little the big picture really changes. For almost a century, Democrats have been at their strongest... when they united working people around a populist message powerful enough to overcome their cultural differences."

New York Times Opinion @nytopinion.nytimes.com · 9d

“A strategy for remaking the Democratic Party is coming together — a coalition of moderates and progressives leaning into economic populism while leaving room to maneuver in the culture war,” writes Tim Shenk.

Opinion | Democrats Are in Crisis. Eat-the-Rich Populism Is the Only Answer.

A blistering assault on economic elites, a moderate stance on cultural issues and a rejection of politics as usual. That’s how to remake the Democratic Party.

nyti.ms

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 2d

⚡Costco protecting margins by displaying fewer imported products
⚡BLS says audio equipment prices rose 14%, dresses 8%, tools 5%
⚡Telsey finds more categories of "hard lines" going up, relative to soft lines and sporting goods
⚡Ashley Furniture raising prices up to 12 percent.

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 2d

Tariff impact beginning to show in prices
⚡Citigroup estimates firms have eaten 60% of tariff cost, but that will flip to 40%, with rest paid by consumers
⚡AutoZone tells investors customers will be willing to pay it, since cars won't start without needed parts
www.ft.com/content/f4bd...

Impact of Trump tariffs is beginning to show in US consumer prices

Trade levies are starting to drive up costs for goods from cans of soup to car parts

www.ft.com

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 2d

Despite Liberation Day tariffs, beef imports up 30 percent in first half of year, writes @taylornrogers.ft.com et al
www.ft.com/content/5fad...

Billionaire beef baron says US not producing enough to satisfy protein craze

JBS’s Wesley Batista says strong US demand is pushing country towards imports despite Trump’s tariffs

www.ft.com

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Reposted by Todd Tucker

Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 4d

more than a whiff of self-censorship in markets at the moment. No-one wants to call BS on, ya know, everything, for fear of angering the president

on.ft.com/4pRyTHp

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 2d

Magnets beyond rare earths. Minnesota's Niron Magnetics, backed by Stellantis and GM is giving it a go with iron and nitrogen.
www.ft.com/content/f0e3...

US magnet start-up targets China’s grip on rare earths

Niron Magnetics is backed by $150mn from automakers to develop technology based on abundant iron and nitrogen

www.ft.com

Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 2d

The Tories have "governed the UK for 65 of the last 100 years. But if an election were held tomorrow, some polls suggest that the Conservatives would come fourth in terms of seats — having never finished lower than second in a general election since at least the 1830s."
www.ft.com/content/ad96...

Are the Tories facing oblivion?

With the Conservatives at their lowest ebb ever, leader Kemi Badenoch faces a fierce struggle to maintain the party’s relevance

www.ft.com

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Reposted by Todd Tucker

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 4d

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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 4d

The more interesting tidbit from the Polis article is that both parties are now trying to do policy that - if successful - succeeds over multiple election cycles. That is proving very tough indeed in a democracy.

Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 4d

Polis' fate is somewhat locked in, given how he has opposed labor in the past.

But will candidates with more affinity with labor or in the industrial heartland go all out against tariffs in the same way?
bsky.app/profile/dday...

David Dayen @ddayen.bsky.social · May 19

Also Brock Hrehor on how Jared Polis absolutely sucks. For all the insistence from the Abundance set that they are really truly pro-labor liberals, I don't think it's a coincidence that the politicians who support their ideas the most do stuff like this:
prospect.org/labor/2025-0...

The Democrats’ One and Only Union-Busting Governor

Colorado’s Democratic legislature voted to repeal the state’s de facto right-to-work law. On Friday, Gov. Jared Polis vetoed it.

prospect.org

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