Tom Adshead
@tomadshead.bsky.social
Director of Research at Macro-Advisory Ltd. Eurasian economics and politics
Was this because of politics? No Soviet music?
I went to the Moscow premiere of "Parsifal" in 1998
I went to the Moscow premiere of "Parsifal" in 1998
December 9, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Was this because of politics? No Soviet music?
I went to the Moscow premiere of "Parsifal" in 1998
I went to the Moscow premiere of "Parsifal" in 1998
We got him half price!
December 9, 2025 at 2:46 PM
We got him half price!
Delighted with mine - top tip, it doesn't work before 0930
December 8, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Delighted with mine - top tip, it doesn't work before 0930
Have you guys got a link to the Institute's announcement, please? This feels like a kite-flying exercise rather than a BRICS initiative
December 7, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Have you guys got a link to the Institute's announcement, please? This feels like a kite-flying exercise rather than a BRICS initiative
Plenty of content there for an LLM to mine, just saying
December 5, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Plenty of content there for an LLM to mine, just saying
MSFT is so good at lots of things, and can hire the best people in the world. So I can't help but feel that the performative boomer techno-incompetence of LinkedIn is meant to be a meta-signal to more senior executives that Microsoft has a camp for them as well.
December 4, 2025 at 10:33 AM
MSFT is so good at lots of things, and can hire the best people in the world. So I can't help but feel that the performative boomer techno-incompetence of LinkedIn is meant to be a meta-signal to more senior executives that Microsoft has a camp for them as well.
Bloody hell, that's just wrong
December 3, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Bloody hell, that's just wrong
"This is my crude pseudo-IMF Keynesian macro model. There are many like it but this one is mine. It is my best friend, it is my life. Without me, my model is useless. Without my model, my short term rate forecasts are useless."
December 3, 2025 at 4:26 PM
"This is my crude pseudo-IMF Keynesian macro model. There are many like it but this one is mine. It is my best friend, it is my life. Without me, my model is useless. Without my model, my short term rate forecasts are useless."
"There's a 40% probability of this outcome" - it's the first thing they teach you at sell-side macro boot camp
December 3, 2025 at 4:24 PM
"There's a 40% probability of this outcome" - it's the first thing they teach you at sell-side macro boot camp
Depends if it's two bottles of vodka a day, a week, or a month
December 3, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Depends if it's two bottles of vodka a day, a week, or a month
"бывшая ленина" is available on the Kindle UK store for £2.63! Thanks, I'll give it a read
December 3, 2025 at 3:40 PM
"бывшая ленина" is available on the Kindle UK store for £2.63! Thanks, I'll give it a read
What would be your top recommendations for recent novels, please?
December 3, 2025 at 3:33 PM
What would be your top recommendations for recent novels, please?
Look at the difference in the number of IPOs in China and Russia over the last 25 years.
December 3, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Look at the difference in the number of IPOs in China and Russia over the last 25 years.
You can argue it's the key difference between China and Russia. Raiders make it hard for medium sized businesses to grow to big ones - decent mittelstand companies that pay their taxes are vulnerable to visits from law enforcement who take over and milk the cash. The Chinese mittelstand grows big.
December 3, 2025 at 3:16 PM
You can argue it's the key difference between China and Russia. Raiders make it hard for medium sized businesses to grow to big ones - decent mittelstand companies that pay their taxes are vulnerable to visits from law enforcement who take over and milk the cash. The Chinese mittelstand grows big.
But for the purposes of a general discussion, you could use EBITDA interest coverage without fear of criticism. Bear in mind that interest coverage is EBITDA divided by interest paid - and the 39% is interest paid divided by "EBITDA". 39% equates to interest coverage of 2.6 or so, which is not bad
December 3, 2025 at 3:14 PM
But for the purposes of a general discussion, you could use EBITDA interest coverage without fear of criticism. Bear in mind that interest coverage is EBITDA divided by interest paid - and the 39% is interest paid divided by "EBITDA". 39% equates to interest coverage of 2.6 or so, which is not bad
Another wrinkle here is that if they are adding back depreciation, this tends to be lower in Russian companies, because the tax service is quite tough on deductions like depreciation, plus for more established companies the book value is more art than science
December 3, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Another wrinkle here is that if they are adding back depreciation, this tends to be lower in Russian companies, because the tax service is quite tough on deductions like depreciation, plus for more established companies the book value is more art than science
Actually, they say that they are using EBITDA as a denominator, but the Russian term implies that they're doing Earnings (net income) plus interest and taxes "minus losses". Those losses could be depreciation, or they may be removing loss-making companies from the aggregate.
December 3, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Actually, they say that they are using EBITDA as a denominator, but the Russian term implies that they're doing Earnings (net income) plus interest and taxes "minus losses". Those losses could be depreciation, or they may be removing loss-making companies from the aggregate.
The number is certainly the highest it's been, but one caveat is that Russian companies tend to under-use debt. One reason is that debts can be re-sold to corporate raiders, so they're a source of risk. Also banks are very conservative in corporate lending
December 3, 2025 at 3:04 PM
The number is certainly the highest it's been, but one caveat is that Russian companies tend to under-use debt. One reason is that debts can be re-sold to corporate raiders, so they're a source of risk. Also banks are very conservative in corporate lending
Actually, I've looked at the source (slide 10): www.forecast.ru/_ARCHIVE/Pre...
And they're using a Russian equivalent of interest coverage using a sort of EBIT as a denominator
And they're using a Russian equivalent of interest coverage using a sort of EBIT as a denominator
www.forecast.ru
December 3, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Actually, I've looked at the source (slide 10): www.forecast.ru/_ARCHIVE/Pre...
And they're using a Russian equivalent of interest coverage using a sort of EBIT as a denominator
And they're using a Russian equivalent of interest coverage using a sort of EBIT as a denominator
Interest coverage is related to EBIT or EBIT, whereas the Russian accounting would be related to net income. But it would be a reasonable starting point
December 3, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Interest coverage is related to EBIT or EBIT, whereas the Russian accounting would be related to net income. But it would be a reasonable starting point
Georgia also worth a mention
December 2, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Georgia also worth a mention