Tom Adshead
@tomadshead.bsky.social
Director of Research at Macro-Advisory Ltd. Eurasian economics and politics
This is reminiscent of the Russians refusing to believe that courts in the UK are independent and don't take orders from the government
The Trump disbelief that the Norwegian govt doesn't control the Nobel process is deeply indicative of his thinking. He can't conceive that an institution could (or should) be genuinely independent of coercion or political power. That's the change he represents.
Trump: "I should have gotten the Nobel prize for each war...I saved millions and millions of people...and don't let anyone tell you that Norway doesn't control the shots. It's in Norway. Norway controls the shots. It's a joke. They've lost such prestige.“
January 21, 2026 at 10:40 AM
This is reminiscent of the Russians refusing to believe that courts in the UK are independent and don't take orders from the government
New substack post about Pluribus, and what it tells us about the utopianism of the Arrow-Debreu model: open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
Bitcoin, or rather, not about bitcoin
How the world of Pluribus is no less fantastic than that which underpins the theory of the efficiency of the free market
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 3:22 PM
New substack post about Pluribus, and what it tells us about the utopianism of the Arrow-Debreu model: open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
www.reuters.com/world/india/... I think this is the direction of travel for payments systems amongst the BRICS. There was already talk of this last year. China and Dubai developed the mBridge system to allow for easy exchange of CBDCs. The BIS was involved but withdrew under USA pressure 1/n
Exclusive: India's central bank proposes linking BRICS' digital currencies, sources say
India's central bank has proposed that BRICS countries link their official digital currencies to make cross-border trade and tourism payments easier, two sources said, which could reduce reliance on t...
www.reuters.com
January 19, 2026 at 4:54 PM
www.reuters.com/world/india/... I think this is the direction of travel for payments systems amongst the BRICS. There was already talk of this last year. China and Dubai developed the mBridge system to allow for easy exchange of CBDCs. The BIS was involved but withdrew under USA pressure 1/n
Now draw ME like a French girl
January 17, 2026 at 8:59 AM
Now draw ME like a French girl
I implore everyone to read Operation KRONSTADT by Harry Ferguson - deserves to be filmed. I couldn't put it down - flimsy motor boats with giant engines depositing spies near Petrograd, and also raiding the Kronstadt base. Dukes plays a big part
👀 Agent reporting (known as a CX) from Sir Paul Dukes, codenamed ST 25, and the only SIS agent to be knighted for his services in Russia, from January 1919. Dukes was an important agent on Bolshevik political and military affairs, who later wrote about his experiences.
January 16, 2026 at 12:14 PM
I implore everyone to read Operation KRONSTADT by Harry Ferguson - deserves to be filmed. I couldn't put it down - flimsy motor boats with giant engines depositing spies near Petrograd, and also raiding the Kronstadt base. Dukes plays a big part
This is a fantastic piece of work, really opened up my eyes
I mapped 80k london airbnbs putting pressure on London housing. The result is annoying if you want a simple villain because airbnb is not to blame for this pressure. Anyway I also found 1,500 listings where you can book guilt-free: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle... Map: laurenleek.eu/airbnb_map
Everyone’s Mad at Airbnb. This Map Explains What We Should Blame Instead.
The real reason Airbnb clusters where it does - and 1,500 listings you can book guilt-free if the policymakers won't listen.
open.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 8:37 AM
This is a fantastic piece of work, really opened up my eyes
My latest on shower thoughts inspired by Pluribus, this time about Arrow's Impossibility Theorem:
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
Pluribus and Arrow's Impossibility Theorem
Wouldn't life be better if we all thought the same way?
open.substack.com
January 4, 2026 at 12:25 PM
My latest on shower thoughts inspired by Pluribus, this time about Arrow's Impossibility Theorem:
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
I read Babel. I went into it having absolutely adored The Poppy Wars trilogy, and having been in an international postgraduate group in Oxford I was fascinated to see her take on this. Every single BookTok account I follow loved Babel. I'm glad that someone is pointing out the flaws BUT 1/n
Has anyone read the book Babel? I’m trying but every time I start to get into it it gets really didactic in a way that just rips me right back out of it
December 26, 2025 at 8:59 PM
I read Babel. I went into it having absolutely adored The Poppy Wars trilogy, and having been in an international postgraduate group in Oxford I was fascinated to see her take on this. Every single BookTok account I follow loved Babel. I'm glad that someone is pointing out the flaws BUT 1/n
Anything we can actually tinsel, we can afford to tinsel
December 26, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Anything we can actually tinsel, we can afford to tinsel
In the Adshead family this is known as a kid-size bottle of wine
December 17, 2025 at 11:15 AM
In the Adshead family this is known as a kid-size bottle of wine
There are waivers from both the US and EU on fertilizers and food exports from Russia and Belarus, but previously potash exports from Belarus were not part of the waiver, because of the importance of potash revenues to the Belarussian state
December 15, 2025 at 4:20 PM
There are waivers from both the US and EU on fertilizers and food exports from Russia and Belarus, but previously potash exports from Belarus were not part of the waiver, because of the importance of potash revenues to the Belarussian state
On the other hand, if you've actually lived in Moscow,, the Rublyovka "area" (It's really a main road) is huge, it's like saying that the Hamptons are a gated community for NY's wealthy, or the Cotswolds are a gated community for wealthy Londoners
oh my god there actually is a gated community of horrible people in hiding in Moscow, pleaseeeee someone write that sitcom with me www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
December 15, 2025 at 10:18 AM
On the other hand, if you've actually lived in Moscow,, the Rublyovka "area" (It's really a main road) is huge, it's like saying that the Hamptons are a gated community for NY's wealthy, or the Cotswolds are a gated community for wealthy Londoners
God forbid Rachel Reeves ever wears a tan suit
This is the point where the anti-Reeves stories tip into madness. Criticise her performance all you like but what the hell is this?
December 3, 2025 at 10:22 AM
God forbid Rachel Reeves ever wears a tan suit
Reposted by Tom Adshead
But Lord! to see the absurd nature of Englishmen, that cannot forbear laughing and jeering at every thing that looks strange.
November 27, 2025 at 2:02 PM
But Lord! to see the absurd nature of Englishmen, that cannot forbear laughing and jeering at every thing that looks strange.
I have a law on Russian politics which is that when there is an internal political fight within the elite, the first person to go public is usually the eventual loser. Maybe I should expand its application to all authoritarian systems
November 26, 2025 at 3:49 PM
I have a law on Russian politics which is that when there is an internal political fight within the elite, the first person to go public is usually the eventual loser. Maybe I should expand its application to all authoritarian systems
The Saudis subsequently bought an overpriced painting from Rybolovlev, so it's more likely the bribe was from them. No one who knows Russia would describe Rybolovlev as close to the Kremlin
The Kremlin disguised a nearly $100 mn payment to Trump in the form of a brokered real estate deal... and both Jeffrey Epstein and William Pulte were involved in the deal. That's very interesting.
November 13, 2025 at 9:06 PM
The Saudis subsequently bought an overpriced painting from Rybolovlev, so it's more likely the bribe was from them. No one who knows Russia would describe Rybolovlev as close to the Kremlin
First time I've seen someone in the thinktank world ask: "What is more important—a cooperative Georgia or a reform-oriented Georgia?" 1/n us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: The West's Inflection Point in the Caucasus: Untying the Georgian Knot. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
Join us for a conversation with Join us for a conversation with:
John DiPirro, Senior Fellow in Eurasia at the American Foreign Policy Council and Senior Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institu...
us02web.zoom.us
November 13, 2025 at 11:24 AM
First time I've seen someone in the thinktank world ask: "What is more important—a cooperative Georgia or a reform-oriented Georgia?" 1/n us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
I was fascinated by this post from Telegram: t.me/yurasumy/25457. It shows how Russian troops enter a town in the new reality of drone strikes. You need to wait for fog, and I guess the small cars and motorcycles make the target spread out. So this is how infantry tactics are changing on the ground.
Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
Туман наше все: ВС РФ под покровом тумана входят в Покровск...
Когда на землю ложится густой туман, «птички» слепы. А значит дроновая угроза сводится почти к нулю.
А потому туман — друг солдата. Од...
t.me
November 12, 2025 at 12:48 PM
I was fascinated by this post from Telegram: t.me/yurasumy/25457. It shows how Russian troops enter a town in the new reality of drone strikes. You need to wait for fog, and I guess the small cars and motorcycles make the target spread out. So this is how infantry tactics are changing on the ground.
It's not just McFaul (although he chooses to post about it) but most American "experts" on Russia are horrifyingly distant from their subject matter. (a) if you've spent time in Kyiv or Minsk in the last 20 years you will understand that it's possible to make good money there 1/n
November 8, 2025 at 8:47 AM
It's not just McFaul (although he chooses to post about it) but most American "experts" on Russia are horrifyingly distant from their subject matter. (a) if you've spent time in Kyiv or Minsk in the last 20 years you will understand that it's possible to make good money there 1/n
www.reuters.com/business/maz... Mazda lets its buyback option expire in regards to its Russian assets. This is not surprising given the current state of sanctions, and we are likely to see a number of similar announcements in the coming months. 1/n
Mazda is first foreign automaker to lose buyback rights in Russian JV, ex-partner says
Japan's Mazda Motor has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise an option to do so, its former Russian partner Sollers told Reuters.
www.reuters.com
November 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
www.reuters.com/business/maz... Mazda lets its buyback option expire in regards to its Russian assets. This is not surprising given the current state of sanctions, and we are likely to see a number of similar announcements in the coming months. 1/n
tashkenttimes.uz/national/162...
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
UNITY military exercises of five countries commence in Uzbekistan
Large-scale military exercises involving units from the defense ministries of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan commenced at Kattakurgan training ground of the Central Mil...
tashkenttimes.uz
October 21, 2025 at 12:00 PM
tashkenttimes.uz/national/162...
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
"Kremlin-led" is such a weaselly adjective. The EaEU makes decisions unanimously, like the EU which it apes in many aspects of its work. Russia is the largest budget contributor, because it's the largest economy. If it's "Kremlin-led", why was Russia rebuffed when it wanted a single currency?
ICYMI: Kremlin-led group wants to be more like Brussels. Bne IntelliNews
Eurasian Economic Union planning operational changes
Kremlin-led group wants to be more like Brussels.
dlvr.it
October 15, 2025 at 2:22 PM
"Kremlin-led" is such a weaselly adjective. The EaEU makes decisions unanimously, like the EU which it apes in many aspects of its work. Russia is the largest budget contributor, because it's the largest economy. If it's "Kremlin-led", why was Russia rebuffed when it wanted a single currency?
Reposted by Tom Adshead
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs. Bne IntelliNews
MACRO ADVISORY: The unintended consequences of Western sanctions
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs.
dlvr.it
October 12, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs. Bne IntelliNews
Looking at the countries I cover, it does feel like an omission for Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic not to ratify the WTO Fisheries Agreement, since presumably the fact that they are landlocked means that they have no fishing industry to protect
Supposedly, since Sep 15, the agreement has been “in effect”—in fact, not until yesterday for Oman and Mali, and still not in effect in 51 others.
The @wto.org and @noiweala.bsky.social are not helping us by creating the (false) impression that the agreement is in effect everywhere. It isn’t.
2/2
The @wto.org and @noiweala.bsky.social are not helping us by creating the (false) impression that the agreement is in effect everywhere. It isn’t.
2/2
October 9, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Looking at the countries I cover, it does feel like an omission for Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic not to ratify the WTO Fisheries Agreement, since presumably the fact that they are landlocked means that they have no fishing industry to protect