Author | Lightnews

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 1d

I lean to the latter view, as I think that historically the most successful sanctions policy was that on apartheid-era South Africa. Lots of Russia opposition figures think otherwise, I don't have strong arguments against this. But for an "expert" to be surprised at Russians in Europe is idiocy 5/5

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 1d

No one can decide whether you should let Russians travel to Europe, and emigrate, to create a brain drain, and not "punish the middle class" or have a blanket ban on Russians travelling to Europe, to drive home the fact that their government has made them pariahs. 4/n

1

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 1d

European embassies have been handing out multi-entry multi-year Schengen visas to Russians since 2022, so perhaps you should ask your own allies what they think about that. If he followed Russian celebrity Instagram he would be all too aware that the war has not stopped people travelling 3/n

1 1

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 1d

Which would allow you to travel in Europe. If you watched TV in those countries, especially "Oryol ili Reshka" you would know what I mean. (b) If you had a lot of Russian friends you would know that many of them have emigrated over the last 20 years (c) you would also know that 2/n

1

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 1d

It's not just McFaul (although he chooses to post about it) but most American "experts" on Russia are horrifyingly distant from their subject matter. (a) if you've spent time in Kyiv or Minsk in the last 20 years you will understand that it's possible to make good money there 1/n

Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 1d

no one expects the Spanish Inquisition

1

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 3d

For what it's worth, the Russian parliamentarians do this too

2

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 6d

Which all means in the longer term that the Russian market will likely pivot towards Chinese auto manufacturers, although we may see some Western companies choosing to set up in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan and selling into Russia from there. 5/5

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 6d

These Mazdas have some local contents, but the highest value components will be imported, and may fall foul of dual-use restrictions which will likely persist for a long time. Additionally Mazda's banks are likely to create friction even for non-sanctioned transactions. 4/n

1

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 6d

Subsequent Russian legislation has made it questionable whether even 3-yr buyback clauses can be enforced. This sort of JV is going to be hard to implement even when there is a peace deal, as there are likely to be residual sanctions and logistics problems. 3/n

1

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 6d

Most investors did nothing for 6 months after the attack on Ukraine in late Feb 2022. By late 2022 it was clear that there would be no peace, so many started making plans to leave. Mazda's decision to sell to local partners with a buyback clause was a common choice, as was the 3-year tenor 2/n

Mazda is first foreign automaker to lose buyback rights in Russian JV, ex-partner says

Japan's Mazda Motor has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise an option to do so, its former Russian partner Sollers told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

1

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 6d

www.reuters.com/business/maz... Mazda lets its buyback option expire in regards to its Russian assets. This is not surprising given the current state of sanctions, and we are likely to see a number of similar announcements in the coming months. 1/n

Mazda is first foreign automaker to lose buyback rights in Russian JV, ex-partner says

Japan's Mazda Motor has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise an option to do so, its former Russian partner Sollers told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

1 2

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 6d

Thank you for bringing the Apothecary Diaries to my attention

1

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 8d

“If it has to happen, baby, do you want to know?”

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 9d

But not with this, www.tiktok.com/@nate.b.jone...
which claims they are freeing cash to buy GPUs. I don't buy it, as capex and headcount must be different buckets. Thanks for your analysis, so far it seems GOOG and AMZN are the big winners from this season. I have cash to deploy from selling NVDA...

Almost no one is saying what really happened #ai #learn #learnontiktok #chatgpt #news

TikTok video by Nate

www.tiktok.com

1

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 9d

Thanks. That is consistent with this: www.aboutamazon.com/news/company....

Staying nimble and continuing to strengthen our organizations

The following message was shared with Amazon employees earlier today.

www.aboutamazon.com

1

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 9d

Weird, I had assumed they had announced the layoffs on Monday to get ahead of bad news, especially on margins

1

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 11d

Thanks, I was hoping someone would suggest something. Maybe I should just completely mute "Musk" and hope that I can catch the real stories about him via Matt Levine

2

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 11d

I really wish there was some sort of function that ensured that I see content only once - all the people that I follow are re-tweeting Musk's comment about civil war, and I really don't need to see it repeatedly.

2 4

Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 13d

Ooh, so that's what Jonny Tickle looks like! Great podcast, enjoyed the discussion greatly.

1 1