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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 1d

If you do a swap, you encourage repowering, you push cost further into the future when (hopefully) gas prices have gone lower on the back of an LNG wave and you keep investor confidence in place.

Scrapping something is just stupid.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 1d

I've said it myself that a tweaking to RO should be undertaken but scrapping it is nose/spite/face territory.

My idea* is to exchange RO payments now for a grant towards repowering in the future of equal value.

*I may have stolen this, not sure if I read it somewhere.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 1d

...But of course, she didn't do it, because it's a lie.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 1d

Same theme in the flagship energy market 'policy' unveiled by the Torys at conference: scrap RO, carbon price etc

With the tag line "this is something Ed Miliband could easily do"

Which implies it would have been easy for the person announcing the policy (Claire Coutinho) to do when she was SoS!

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 1d

I think the one she used was drawn in crayon.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 1d

Oh, just realised the comment from Coutinho maybe doesn't make sense without context...she was using graphs in her speech.

So when she says "China has been doing this" - she is pointing to a graph of rising emissions.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 1d

Number 2:

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Global renewable energy generation surpasses coal for first time

Record solar expansion and steady wind growth driving world’s shift away from fossil fuels in 2025, report finds

www.theguardian.com

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 1d

Will just append two things to reinforce the point, number 1:

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · Apr 25

Do you remember when former Energy SoS Claire Coutinho suggested her crack squad to "red team" policy?

Well let's check in with how it's going with a couple of examples including absolutely stupid conspiracy theory and hilariously funny maths...

Mini 🧵...

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · Jan 13

Things are going completely normally in the Tory party.

Basing your energy policy on output from fossil fuel grifting Twitter trolls (with at least one count of libel in there, plus plenty of baseless conspiracy theories and a smattering of racism) is quite the look.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 1d

Unfortunately, even though she was riffing on it, Claire Coutinho must be shot into the sun for her speech at the Tory conference. That's the rules.

(She should have gone into the sun for the 'red team' nonsense on Twitter a little while ago, so she's been lucky to spend this much time on Earth)

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 3d

But as you pointed out, the effect can be delayed so created a bit of a slosh of views in the transaction (short term ok / long term terrible) and made the valuation really tricky.

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 3d

And no specific reason to be converted to pure play food retail either has competition is everywhere (unlike for on route fuel retail sites in the middle of nowhere).

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 3d

Yeh that's really the crux of the question, petrol station sites that were built to essentially serve residential areas (trunk roads in/out of 'new build' estates - new build being up to 30 years ago I mean) are dead in the water. No use case as fast charging sites as home chargers eats them alive.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 3d

This is niche, but I'm interested in the effects on petrol stations, specifically suburban (edge of towns/cities).

Reason I ask is I worked on a transaction for a portfolio of these in the UK a few years back and we took a very dim long term view. Wondering if it has come to pass in Norway?

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 5d

Javier Blas is furious his 50 articles on 'European winter gas worries' are going straight into the recycling bin.

I'm joking of course. It was 20 articles, and he will still publish all of them.

www.ft.com/content/5ba8...

US rush to expand LNG exports heightens fears of global gas glut

Shell and TotalEnergies voice oversupply concerns as US companies race to build more terminals

www.ft.com

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 5d

I haven't gone asset by asset, but BMRS is where you will find it if you want to drill down. At a top level you can see the discrepancy from forecast to outturn pretty clearly:

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 5d

Overnight last night, around 5 to 6 GW of wind was curtailed from 7pm to 6am.

I am frequently at pains to point out how not all curtailment is bad, and some is economically beneficial (vs overspend on transmission) but that is a bit too much to be fair, considering it was for 11+ hours.

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 8d

Quick, get ready to fire up the wind curtailment hot takes.

Or, for the more old school amongst us, fire up the 'it's too windy for the windmills' snarky takes for the Telegraph.

Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 8d

Quite worrying solutions recently in the global weather models regarding Humberto's post-tropical intensification. The system is forecast to deepen explosively while arriving Europe.

The northern British Isles might be hit hard. 👀

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 6d

Oh, would be very interested to learn more, please do share any info.

Another factor is just securing a delivery slot before the Sun explodes which inevitably leads to some developers over paying to jump the queue (usually to keep to grid connection or subsidy deadlines).

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 6d

Solar PV might be the exception but that's largely a function of falling module prices hiding cost pressure on other items such as transformers or switchgear.

Same thing in BESS where big falls in lithium price (2022-24) and economy of scale effects have hidden supply chain pressure.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 6d

On the day the Conservative party is telling you that natural gas is the cheap choice, this analysis is perfectly timed.

Almost every type of energy generation is currently being smashed by inflationary factors riddled throughout the supply chain.

We would do well to engage with reality.

Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 6d

GAS TURBINE SHORTAGE 🚨⚡

Orders for turbines for natural gas power plants are vastly outpacing supply, threatening the world’s ability to keep pace with rising electricity demand

🧵 Thread on how we got here and what it means for power-hungry nations

www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 6d

Was about to admonish you for not posting enough here, but have seen you have been pretty active over the last 24/36 hours.

Please keep it up!

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 6d

Well yes, but you have also shown a graph that shows that Spanish consumers pay less than German/EU average consumers which is also what the Ember analysis is saying is driven by cheaper wholesale inputs.

Which is true given the larger than usual ES merchant fleet.

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 6d

Almost exactly one year ago:

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 6d

BMRS has three ~20GW wind peaks forecast over the next few days.

The nearer term forecasts put it into the 24 GW range for individual settlement periods tonight.

Storm Amy is coming.

(Note: outturn likely to be significantly different i.e. lower due to curtailment)

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 7d

...which produces an annoying counter point of "well why ban it then? Let them find out!"

Which is fine, but then you still just tie up local councillors to get stuck into this pointless permitting charade for years to discover the inevitable.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 7d

It would produce the most expensive gas anywhere in the world, and at a time the global gas markets are essentially oversupplied (which due to geographical-trade constraints can't show its full force in the UK/Europe yet) it wouldn't find an investor for love nor money.

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