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Reposted by Tong Zhao

The Monitor @uscnpm.bsky.social · 1d

Tyler Quillen talks with @tongzhao.bsky.social at @carnegieendowment.org about the consequences of America's illiberal turn for China and its neighbors

open.substack.com/pub/uscnpm/p...

Dialogue of the Deaf w/ Tong Zhao

As Beijing's position toward the U.S. hardens, the U.S.' position towards itself fractures further

open.substack.com

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · 15d

Nuclear risks are rising as old safeguards fray. A new high-level bipartisan Task Force convened by @carnegieendowment.org, @nti.org, & @belfercenter.bsky.social lays out a blueprint to prevent an era of nuclear anarchy.
@carnegienpp.bsky.social
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Preventing an Era of Nuclear Anarchy: Nuclear Proliferation and American Security

Following decades of mostly successful efforts to combat the spread of nuclear weapons, multiple global trends are reviving the possibility of a world with more nuclear-armed states. These development...

carnegieendowment.org

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · 29d

Grateful to our Communications team colleagues for making this video possible.

Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · 29d

China’s latest parade showcased unprecedented nuclear power. In this @carnegieendowment.org short video, I explain why the buildup isn’t serving China’s goals—and how Beijing can help strengthen a rules-based nuclear order.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaf3...

China’s Nuclear Arsenal Is Growing Faster Than Ever

YouTube video by Carnegie Explains

www.youtube.com

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Sep 4

Beijing’s stunning display of nuclear power at its recent military parade is striking. In @economist.com, I explain why China should resist fueling arms races and instead champion a rules-based nuclear order.
www.economist.com/by-invitatio...

China should not fuel an arms race, says a close watcher of its nuclear policy

Its interests would be better served if it led on crafting nuclear rules, argues Tong Zhao

www.economist.com

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Aug 27

Enjoyed discussing the politics behind China's nuclear policy shift with @nktpnd.bsky.social on @warontherocks.bsky.social' Thinking the Unthinkable podcast:
warontherocks.com/episode/thin...

The Politics Behind China’s Nuclear Shift - War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com

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Reposted by Tong Zhao

John Carl Baker @johncarlbaker.bsky.social · Aug 11

Important piece from @tongzhao.bsky.social warning that China may be considering a launch-under-attack policy for its nuclear forces, mirroring the US and Russia foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/05/c...

Is China Changing Its Nuclear Launch Strategy?

Certain behaviors suggest it may be preparing to adopt one of the Cold War’s most dangerous policies.

foreignpolicy.com

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Aug 5

Many thanks to Megan DuBois for her excellent editing!

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Aug 5

Happy to share my @foreignpolicy.com analysis on China's potential adoption of launch-under-attack policy for its nuclear forces, including the security impact of this major policy shift and potential measures to mitigate risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/05/c...

Is China Changing Its Nuclear Launch Strategy?

Certain behaviors suggest it may be preparing to adopt one of the Cold War’s most dangerous policies.

foreignpolicy.com

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Reposted by Tong Zhao

Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · Jul 9

See also this commemoration of the manifesto, recorded Tuesday at the Royal Society in London, and featuring remarks from Dr. Hussain Al-Shahristani, president of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, and a conversation with Steve Fetter, Andriy Baklitskiy and @tongzhao.bsky.social.

70 years of the Russell-Einstein manifesto | The Royal Society

YouTube video by The Royal Society

www.youtube.com

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Jun 25

www.apln.network/analysis/the...

The Israel-Iran War and the Crisis of the Nonproliferation Regime: Views from the Asia-Pacific | Asia-Pacific Leadership Network

www.apln.network

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Jun 25

Thanks @apln.network for the opportunity to make a few comments on the implications of Israeli-US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities for nonproliferation and regional security in and beyond the Middle East, including in the Asia Pacific region. Link below.

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Reposted by Tong Zhao

Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · Jun 16

Slashing nuclear nonproliferation funding, as the Trump administration has requested, would be, for the U.S., “a recipe for national security failure.”

@coreyah.bsky.social on why, in her latest for Emissary: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Cutting Nuclear Nonproliferation Funding Will Undermine U.S. National Security

It’ll also make deterrence even more challenging.

carnegieendowment.org

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Reposted by Tong Zhao

John Carl Baker @johncarlbaker.bsky.social · May 28

Nuclear expert @tongzhao.bsky.social says Russia and China see space-based interceptors "as indistinguishable from offensive weapons, arguing that a better-protected United States might be emboldened to pursue more aggressive military actions" www.wsj.com/world/trumps...

Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ Riles Nuclear-Armed Foes

The countries claim the missile-defense project is driving a dangerous new arms race.

www.wsj.com

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Reposted by Tong Zhao

Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · May 28

Does President Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” risk igniting a new arms race? To Russia, China, and North Korea – the three greatest nuclear threats to the U.S. – it does.

📰 @tongzhao.bsky.social‬ weighed in for @wsj.com: www.wsj.com/world/trumps...

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · May 2

As China sees a new era of "strategic stalemate" with the US, what does it mean for bilateral security—arms racing, crisis stability, and conflict risk?
My analysis in @foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Will China Escalate?

Despite short-term stability, the risk of military crisis is rising.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Reposted by Tong Zhao

EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · Mar 18

🎙️Listen to the full #TheArmsPoseur podcast from IISS with Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social, Dr Jingdong Yuan, Dr @tongzhao.bsky.social & Dr @fionacunningham.bsky.social as they discuss the history and current trajectory of #China's nuclear arsenal. 🎧🔗 iiss.org/podcasts/arm...

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Apr 2

How does China envision the expansion of #BRICS? What's its strategy for enhancing engagement with Global South countries through BRICS to bolster its economic, security, & normative power?

My analysis for @carnegieendowment.org's new report on BRICS expansion:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order: Perspectives from Member States, Partners, and Aspirants

The potential of BRICS members and partner countries to fulfill their individual aspirations via BRICS hinges on what vision of the future of world order ultimately wins out within BRICS.

carnegieendowment.org

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Mar 1

Shift in logic:

Biden admin: Ukraine's fight defends a rules-based order—vital to US; Ukraine soldiers & lives lost are priceless contributions to a joint struggle.

Trump admin: Ukraine's fight is irrelevant to US interests & its sacrifice is a waste; Ukr owes US for one-sided aid & generosity.

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Reposted by Tong Zhao

Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · Dec 27

10/ “Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security” by @tongzhao.bsky.social from the Nuclear Policy Program

https://buff.ly/4iMKXqd

Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security

The message from Chinese officials has become increasingly clear: the United States and China should first stabilize their political relationship before taking on nuclear issues.

carnegieendowment.org

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Dec 10

Look forward to this @csis.org online discussion:

Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan

December 13, 2024, 1:30 – 2:30 pm EST
www.csis.org/events/confr...

Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan | CSIS Events

Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham will discuss a new CSIS report Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan with Kari ...

www.csis.org

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Dec 9

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Dec 9

Honored to join distinguished experts discussing nuclear policy under a new Trump administration in the latest Arms Control Today @armscontrolnow.bsky.social

My contribution: "Dangerous Parallax: Chinese-U.S. Nuclear Risks in Trump's Second Term"

www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-12/...

Trump to Regain Control of U.S. Nuclear Policy. Now What? | Arms Control Association

www.armscontrol.org

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Tong Zhao @tongzhao.bsky.social · Nov 28

Thanks, Jon. Happy Thanksgiving!

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