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trackow.bsky.social
Thomas Rackow 🧊
@trackow.bsky.social
760 followers 440 following 55 posts
Scientist @ecmwf.int : climate & ocean variability, kilometre-scale modelling, and its visualisation. #art and music enthusiast. #scicomm
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trackow.bsky.social
Thomas Rackow 🧊 @trackow.bsky.social · Dec 5
We have a new paper out in @science.org today, led by Helge Goessling from #AWI:

The recent global temperature surge in 2023 was intensified by a record-low planetary #albedo

👉 doi.org/10.1126/scie... @thomasjung.bsky.social @ecmwf.bsky.social

This is what we found (🧵1/8)
Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthr...
doi.org
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
leonsimons.bsky.social
Leon Simons @leonsimons.bsky.social · 1d
I just updated this NASA CERES graph. The regional level of Absorbed Solar Radiation increased by 4.2 W/m² in 20 years!!

That's more than the global greenhouse gas forcing increase since 1750!

The 2 W/m² Net Flux increase indicates that there is a lot more regional warming in the pipeline.
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
jens-d-mueller.bsky.social
Jens Daniel Müller @jens-d-mueller.bsky.social · Sep 2
Finally, some excellent resources on the 2023 SST anomalies:

@polarocean.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/pola...

@trackow.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/trac...

bsky.app/profile/mice...

@tguinaldo.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/tgui...

@profmattengland.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/prof...
polarocean.bsky.social
Jens Terhaar @polarocean.bsky.social · Mar 12
Why have the sea surface temperature suddenly risen in 2023/24? 🌊
Is it true that climate models cannot simulate such SST jumps? What is common to such jumps? How will SSTs evolve over the next months and years? Are we in uncharted territory? More from our recent study in Nature is here👇
Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected - Nature
Observations and climate models suggest that the global sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 was not unexpected and would have been nearly impossible without anthropogenic warming.
www.nature.com
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
jens-d-mueller.bsky.social
Jens Daniel Müller @jens-d-mueller.bsky.social · Sep 2
🌊 In 2023, the ocean carbon sink weakened for the first time in a record-hot year 🌡️🌎
Our new study in Nature Climate Change quantifies this unexpected decline and explains how it came about. 👇
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023 - Nature Climate Change
The ocean carbon sink strengthened in previous warm El Niño years due to reduced CO2 outgassing in the tropics. Here the authors show that the ocean carbon sink declined in 2023 despite record-high se...
doi.org
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
deepseadawn.bsky.social
Dr. Dawn Wright @deepseadawn.bsky.social · Aug 1
Hope you enjoy exploring this cool 3D app of the ocean focusing on NOAA World Ocean Atlas water column measurements of temp, salinity, dissolved O2, and nutrients!
#voxels #EcologicalMarineUnits

www.esri.com/about/newsro...

🌊 🦑 🌎 🌍 🌏 #GISchat #geogchat #geogsky
Explore a 3D App of the Ocean
In this 10-minute tutorial, learn how 3D scenes and interactive controls allow for greater data exploration with the 3D Ocean Explorer app.
www.esri.com
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
nicolasberrod.bsky.social
Nicolas Berrod @nicolasberrod.bsky.social · Jul 9
Enfin, la température de l'eau à la surface de la mer Méditerrannée entre la France rt l'Afrique du Nord a été historiquement élevée (tous mois confondus) en juin : jusqu'à 27 °C, soit +3,7 °C par rapport à la "normale".

3/3
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
lukasbrunner.bsky.social
Lukas Brunner @lukasbrunner.bsky.social · Jun 17
New paper in ERL! We study the importance of resolution for the representation of climate extremes.

We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions.

doi.org/10.1088/1748...
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
forumeteoclimat.bsky.social
Forum Météo Climat #FIMC2025 🌎 @forumeteoclimat.bsky.social · Jun 6
#FIMC2025, Sarah Keeley (@‌copernicusecmwf.bsky.social) showed how coupling ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere boosts forecast accuracy. Storms, heatwaves, even sea ice changes—what lies beneath shapes what’s above. AI is now taking it further.
#CoupledForecasting #ECMWF #AI4Weather #UNOC3
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
marylouathanase.bsky.social
Marylou Athanase @marylouathanase.bsky.social · Jun 3
To celebrate the kick-off of #UNOC3 and #OOSC in Nice, we share a striking, mesmerising perspective on Mediterranean Marine Heatwaves —and their clear amplification by climate change.

From @awi.de storyline simulations, visual by @jawijan.bsky.social
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
tguinaldo.bsky.social
Thibault Guinaldo @tguinaldo.bsky.social · May 13
If I can add something. Here we demonstrate that NATL warming was due to natural variability. The event was excepted and in line with climate projections (return period around 10 years). The processes are well known and we can explain it.

www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic - Communications Earth & Environment
The 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave was driven by an extreme phase of internal atmospheric variability but would have been impossible without the doping effect of anthropogenic warming, according ...
www.nature.com
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
michaelemann.bsky.social
Michael E. Mann @michaelemann.bsky.social · May 4
Important new article in @nature.com:
"...the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend."
#TruthIsBadEnough
(h/t @flowinguphill.bsky.social)
polarocean.bsky.social
Jens Terhaar @polarocean.bsky.social · Mar 12
Why have the sea surface temperature suddenly risen in 2023/24? 🌊
Is it true that climate models cannot simulate such SST jumps? What is common to such jumps? How will SSTs evolve over the next months and years? Are we in uncharted territory? More from our recent study in Nature is here👇
Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected - Nature
Observations and climate models suggest that the global sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 was not unexpected and would have been nearly impossible without anthropogenic warming.
www.nature.com
7 69 180
Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
leonsimons.bsky.social
Leon Simons @leonsimons.bsky.social · May 2
If only people valued peer reviewed scientific papers and regional data more than tweets and blogs and global averages...

This is barely ever addressed.

Helge Goessling gave a great presentation at the EGU yesterday.

More soon.
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
ecmwf.int
ECMWF @ecmwf.int · May 2
It's a wrap for this year's European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly, where we have been presenting developments from across #ECMWF. Our team have been involved as speakers, poster presenters and conveners, but found time to get together for this great group photo!
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trackow.bsky.social
Thomas Rackow 🧊 @trackow.bsky.social · Apr 28
Today @jens-d-mueller.bsky.social gave a great talk on the ocean carbon sink during the record-warm year 2023 & an outlook for 24. #EGU25

This relates to our joint work @awi.de @ecmwf.int that is presented Thursday morning, room 0.14. See you there:

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
plosclimate.org
PLOS Climate @plosclimate.org · Apr 23
Our editors are calling for submissions to help build a robust, peer-reviewed evidence base for the forthcoming IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Cities.

Read more 👇
latitude.plos.org/2024/11/call...
Call for papers: a new 'living' collection for the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Cities - Latitude
As work on the IPCC’s Special Report on Climate Change and Cities begins, PLOS Climate is calling for papers for a new…
latitude.plos.org
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
marylouathanase.bsky.social
Marylou Athanase @marylouathanase.bsky.social · Apr 27
If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon!

We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them:
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social
Leaflet of the EGU25 splinter meeting. Title: Networking session: comparing methods for extreme event attribution. Illustrations: plots from various attribution methods. Time and location: Friday 02.05, 12h45-13h45, room 2.43.
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
marylouathanase.bsky.social
Marylou Athanase @marylouathanase.bsky.social · Apr 27
I will be presenting our results at #EGU25 in a poster on Wednesday. 🌀 So if you'd like to chat about the Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 models, find me there!

The poster: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

The paper: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
ecmwf.int
ECMWF @ecmwf.int · Apr 25
We will be at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly next week, presenting developments from across #ECMWF. Find out which sessions we are involved in as speakers, poster presenters and conveners ➡ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...
#EGU2025
@egu.eu
EGU flags in background. Text: "27 April - 2 May 2025. ECMWF at EGU General Assembly"
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
jnwhnr.bsky.social
Jan Wehner @jnwhnr.bsky.social · Apr 7
For a new visualization project @awi.de, I’m currently experimenting with satellite imagery, elevation data, and OSM. Exciting!

@blender.org
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
jnwhnr.bsky.social
Jan Wehner @jnwhnr.bsky.social · Apr 5
Exploring ways to visualise wind together with my colleague @sbeyer.net at AWI. Here’s a glimpse: IFS-FESOM wind speed visualised as coloured particles.
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Reposted by Thomas Rackow 🧊
marylouathanase.bsky.social
Marylou Athanase @marylouathanase.bsky.social · Mar 31
Our new study is out:

The Arctic Beaufort Gyre is projected to weaken or vanish in most CMIP6 models under future climate change.

The gyre would thus stop storing freshwater in its centre, with possibly large impacts on the Arctic and beyond.

Read: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
The Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 Models: Present and Future
CMIP6 models generally simulate a too strong, large, and northward-extending Beaufort Gyre (BG) during the historical period Among the least unrealistic models, most simulations project a decline...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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trackow.bsky.social
Thomas Rackow 🧊 @trackow.bsky.social · Mar 19
Merci!
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trackow.bsky.social
Thomas Rackow 🧊 @trackow.bsky.social · Mar 19
Link does not seem to work?
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trackow.bsky.social
Thomas Rackow 🧊 @trackow.bsky.social · Mar 13
Thank you for explaining, Jens!
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trackow.bsky.social
Thomas Rackow 🧊 @trackow.bsky.social · Mar 13
Very interesting! In the jump years, there is always an El Nino with "at least 1.5°" amplitude in the simulations. The 2023/24 one you write is 1.3° only, which we consider more moderate. Accounting for this, doesn't the recent temperature surge appear even more extreme/rare?
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