Tom MacDonald
@tscmacdonald.bsky.social
Energy & decarbonisation by way of physical chemistry and spin stuff. Sometimes folk music and dance.
Excellent essay here on the slow strangling of mass literary culture in the West - most clearly in the US, but it's obviously happening here too
November 9, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Excellent essay here on the slow strangling of mass literary culture in the West - most clearly in the US, but it's obviously happening here too
Utterly deranged writing here forced by Australia's ridiculous defo laws
September 27, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Utterly deranged writing here forced by Australia's ridiculous defo laws
Incredible piece here, bringing together some clear insights into the thinking driving America's technical/economic self-immolation at the altar of a millenarian quest for AGI. Definitely check out the linked FP piece, too
August 19, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Incredible piece here, bringing together some clear insights into the thinking driving America's technical/economic self-immolation at the altar of a millenarian quest for AGI. Definitely check out the linked FP piece, too
Still thinking about energy market complexity and possible topologies that can scale to accommodate >millions of energy assets providing co-optimised energy and network support services. Two fundamental structures come to mind - are there others?
(I accept this is all very conceptual/hypothetical!)
(I accept this is all very conceptual/hypothetical!)
August 12, 2025 at 2:27 AM
Still thinking about energy market complexity and possible topologies that can scale to accommodate >millions of energy assets providing co-optimised energy and network support services. Two fundamental structures come to mind - are there others?
(I accept this is all very conceptual/hypothetical!)
(I accept this is all very conceptual/hypothetical!)
I love these new charts on wind lulls & correlation. Managing long winter periods of correlated low wind availability is IMO *the* big reliability challenge for a mostly-renewable system in temperate latitudes.
July 31, 2025 at 12:19 AM
I love these new charts on wind lulls & correlation. Managing long winter periods of correlated low wind availability is IMO *the* big reliability challenge for a mostly-renewable system in temperate latitudes.
Hot new Q2 Quarterly Energy Dynamics! aemo.com.au/-/media/file...
Intermittent renewable seasonality means most grids will become winter peaking systems. In the NEM that means June/July is the painful part of the year - look at that evening price peak! Many more batteries needed to bring it down.
Intermittent renewable seasonality means most grids will become winter peaking systems. In the NEM that means June/July is the painful part of the year - look at that evening price peak! Many more batteries needed to bring it down.
July 31, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Hot new Q2 Quarterly Energy Dynamics! aemo.com.au/-/media/file...
Intermittent renewable seasonality means most grids will become winter peaking systems. In the NEM that means June/July is the painful part of the year - look at that evening price peak! Many more batteries needed to bring it down.
Intermittent renewable seasonality means most grids will become winter peaking systems. In the NEM that means June/July is the painful part of the year - look at that evening price peak! Many more batteries needed to bring it down.
SMH implying a new take on the production challenges of AUKUS: out Trump's contacts to use and go make a deal with Sevmash for some Borei boats
July 10, 2025 at 12:37 AM
SMH implying a new take on the production challenges of AUKUS: out Trump's contacts to use and go make a deal with Sevmash for some Borei boats
Saw this today, and it looks like a decent approach: www.smh.com.au/property/new...
June 26, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Saw this today, and it looks like a decent approach: www.smh.com.au/property/new...
The goal of the REGO is *not* to incentivise new generation - that's what the CIS is for. The REGO is designed to have the flexibility to recognise a range of attributes (e.g. additionality, time-matching), but it's a tool for compliance: it's not a demand signal for any of those things.
May 24, 2025 at 6:13 AM
The goal of the REGO is *not* to incentivise new generation - that's what the CIS is for. The REGO is designed to have the flexibility to recognise a range of attributes (e.g. additionality, time-matching), but it's a tool for compliance: it's not a demand signal for any of those things.
Ianucci on early 2000s government, but I reckon this explains a lot of misplaced faith in LLM AI today. Clear and confident advice still seems to short-circuit many peoples' critical faculties and go straight to accepted belief.
www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio...
www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio...
May 20, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Ianucci on early 2000s government, but I reckon this explains a lot of misplaced faith in LLM AI today. Clear and confident advice still seems to short-circuit many peoples' critical faculties and go straight to accepted belief.
www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio...
www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio...
Enthralled by the level of hating on reed players from this local brass band
May 9, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Enthralled by the level of hating on reed players from this local brass band
• ALP + climate indies own the house
• Greens hold balance in the senate
• Unclear if the LNP have any articulate MPs left in the country
• Albo never [?] explicitly said he wouldn't...
It's Time.
• Greens hold balance in the senate
• Unclear if the LNP have any articulate MPs left in the country
• Albo never [?] explicitly said he wouldn't...
It's Time.
May 4, 2025 at 12:55 AM
• ALP + climate indies own the house
• Greens hold balance in the senate
• Unclear if the LNP have any articulate MPs left in the country
• Albo never [?] explicitly said he wouldn't...
It's Time.
• Greens hold balance in the senate
• Unclear if the LNP have any articulate MPs left in the country
• Albo never [?] explicitly said he wouldn't...
It's Time.
We [NEM] have also seen a weakening of the link between gas prices (STTM) and spot electricity prices. They're still clearly linked, but the $/GJ vs $/MWh ratio seems to be weakening and increasingly seasonal (i.e. spring sees more VRE supply and less correlation of power and gas prices)
May 2, 2025 at 10:34 PM
We [NEM] have also seen a weakening of the link between gas prices (STTM) and spot electricity prices. They're still clearly linked, but the $/GJ vs $/MWh ratio seems to be weakening and increasingly seasonal (i.e. spring sees more VRE supply and less correlation of power and gas prices)
Uncontroversial?
• High % renewables bring new grid stability risks.
• Those risks seem manageable, but necessary policies/tech/regs are still in flux.
• The 🇪🇸/🇵🇹 event was almost certainly multifactorial. Untangling will take time, but…
• Early data does imply VRE instability as one contributor.
• High % renewables bring new grid stability risks.
• Those risks seem manageable, but necessary policies/tech/regs are still in flux.
• The 🇪🇸/🇵🇹 event was almost certainly multifactorial. Untangling will take time, but…
• Early data does imply VRE instability as one contributor.
May 1, 2025 at 4:06 AM
Uncontroversial?
• High % renewables bring new grid stability risks.
• Those risks seem manageable, but necessary policies/tech/regs are still in flux.
• The 🇪🇸/🇵🇹 event was almost certainly multifactorial. Untangling will take time, but…
• Early data does imply VRE instability as one contributor.
• High % renewables bring new grid stability risks.
• Those risks seem manageable, but necessary policies/tech/regs are still in flux.
• The 🇪🇸/🇵🇹 event was almost certainly multifactorial. Untangling will take time, but…
• Early data does imply VRE instability as one contributor.
Super interesting to me how contentious REC granularity is: voluntary offtakers want a least-cost ESG box ticket or in some cases a marketable green differentiator; green energy advocates want a system that incentivises least-cost rapid decarbonisation.
Can be a lot of arguing at cross purposes.
Can be a lot of arguing at cross purposes.
April 16, 2025 at 12:27 AM
Super interesting to me how contentious REC granularity is: voluntary offtakers want a least-cost ESG box ticket or in some cases a marketable green differentiator; green energy advocates want a system that incentivises least-cost rapid decarbonisation.
Can be a lot of arguing at cross purposes.
Can be a lot of arguing at cross purposes.
Watched A Night To Remember last night (on the anniversary), and it was shockingly good - tight and relentless pacing, beautifully understated acting, a thoroughly English take on responding to disaster. Also excellent cinematography and effects by today's standards - truly remarkable for the 50s.
April 14, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Watched A Night To Remember last night (on the anniversary), and it was shockingly good - tight and relentless pacing, beautifully understated acting, a thoroughly English take on responding to disaster. Also excellent cinematography and effects by today's standards - truly remarkable for the 50s.
At #smartenergy25, Fluence talking us through the excitement of an energy future without North Sydney in it
April 9, 2025 at 3:43 AM
At #smartenergy25, Fluence talking us through the excitement of an energy future without North Sydney in it
Following up with a quick effort to plot peak demand reduction benefits vs rooftop PV capacity in NEM states. It's a little hacky:
- PD reduction here is just annual max(operational demand) vs annual max(op. demand + rPV output)
- rPV capacity is just max output seen
Each point is one calendar year.
- PD reduction here is just annual max(operational demand) vs annual max(op. demand + rPV output)
- rPV capacity is just max output seen
Each point is one calendar year.
January 30, 2025 at 11:55 PM
Following up with a quick effort to plot peak demand reduction benefits vs rooftop PV capacity in NEM states. It's a little hacky:
- PD reduction here is just annual max(operational demand) vs annual max(op. demand + rPV output)
- rPV capacity is just max output seen
Each point is one calendar year.
- PD reduction here is just annual max(operational demand) vs annual max(op. demand + rPV output)
- rPV capacity is just max output seen
Each point is one calendar year.
A great series of articles on energy market modelling posted on WattClarity yesterday prompted the thought: has Australia ever had an energy grid that left the market to deliver new capacity investments? My sense is no.
Short article on this over on LinkedIn:
www.linkedin.com/pulse/openin...
Short article on this over on LinkedIn:
www.linkedin.com/pulse/openin...
January 15, 2025 at 10:25 PM
A great series of articles on energy market modelling posted on WattClarity yesterday prompted the thought: has Australia ever had an energy grid that left the market to deliver new capacity investments? My sense is no.
Short article on this over on LinkedIn:
www.linkedin.com/pulse/openin...
Short article on this over on LinkedIn:
www.linkedin.com/pulse/openin...
Huh! I was thinking that even with increased coal dispatch in autumn/winter as *key* driver, Callide C would surely have lifted coal mingen in the last third of the year - but that seems more than offset by other plants on outage. Overall, little visible impact Callide C return (or Liddell exit):
January 8, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Huh! I was thinking that even with increased coal dispatch in autumn/winter as *key* driver, Callide C would surely have lifted coal mingen in the last third of the year - but that seems more than offset by other plants on outage. Overall, little visible impact Callide C return (or Liddell exit):
New signage on the Metro, I think? SW Metro - we're getting closer!
Here's to a smooth opening this year and a much improved weekday commute
Here's to a smooth opening this year and a much improved weekday commute
January 7, 2025 at 9:52 PM
New signage on the Metro, I think? SW Metro - we're getting closer!
Here's to a smooth opening this year and a much improved weekday commute
Here's to a smooth opening this year and a much improved weekday commute
@reneweconomy.com.au are you aware that the All Articles page is currently broken and not showing new articles? I think it's been this way for a few weeks, maybe a month. Annoying as I follow it for a complete/chronological feed of RE's articles!
January 7, 2025 at 9:29 PM
@reneweconomy.com.au are you aware that the All Articles page is currently broken and not showing new articles? I think it's been this way for a few weeks, maybe a month. Annoying as I follow it for a complete/chronological feed of RE's articles!
At Great Lake: 2000 GWh stored, with room for 4500 GWh more!
January 2, 2025 at 1:57 AM
At Great Lake: 2000 GWh stored, with room for 4500 GWh more!
