Tom MacDonald
@tscmacdonald.bsky.social
Energy & decarbonisation by way of physical chemistry and spin stuff. Sometimes folk music and dance.
I haven't seen any very convenient free sources, but I think NEMOSIS is reasonably effective at automating the pull and reformat from AEMO's clunky MMS files
November 4, 2025 at 10:56 AM
I haven't seen any very convenient free sources, but I think NEMOSIS is reasonably effective at automating the pull and reformat from AEMO's clunky MMS files
Also those ISP assumed upgrades I've never seen costed at Gordon (#4,5 turbines?) and maybe Reece over on the west coast - speaking of, REECE2 still isn't back in action after the fire in July. Wonder how expensive that'll be to fix?
November 3, 2025 at 2:57 AM
Also those ISP assumed upgrades I've never seen costed at Gordon (#4,5 turbines?) and maybe Reece over on the west coast - speaking of, REECE2 still isn't back in action after the fire in July. Wonder how expensive that'll be to fix?
I suppose the real test here is "if the PRC threw its full economic heft behind sanctions to stop You/Us/The West accessing a mineral or material with strategic significance, could they succeed?". Seems to be yes for Dy or Gd, no for steel or copper, maybe for many things in between.
October 28, 2025 at 10:59 PM
I suppose the real test here is "if the PRC threw its full economic heft behind sanctions to stop You/Us/The West accessing a mineral or material with strategic significance, could they succeed?". Seems to be yes for Dy or Gd, no for steel or copper, maybe for many things in between.
Just pulled it out as an example of something very niche with few producers and little/no market incentive to add capacity, but with a few key uses (BeCu tooling, aviation alloys) that would suffer from losing access - which is more plausible than losing access to e.g. steel. That's the point.
October 28, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Just pulled it out as an example of something very niche with few producers and little/no market incentive to add capacity, but with a few key uses (BeCu tooling, aviation alloys) that would suffer from losing access - which is more plausible than losing access to e.g. steel. That's the point.
The government view on this is pure politics, but if "critical mineral" is to have any value as a concept I think it needs to focus on essential materials with smaller supply chains at risk of market capture. Fe, Al, Cu are clearly critical - but also somewhat distinct from Nb, Ga, Be etc
October 28, 2025 at 10:01 PM
The government view on this is pure politics, but if "critical mineral" is to have any value as a concept I think it needs to focus on essential materials with smaller supply chains at risk of market capture. Fe, Al, Cu are clearly critical - but also somewhat distinct from Nb, Ga, Be etc
Feels unproductive to overthink this until we get the new Qld plan, but the ESOO update seems to say that Gladstone PTI solves this if delivered on time. So I think that's where we stand: see if Powerlink can commit and deliver the PTI, then course correct as needed if it faces delays.
October 2, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Feels unproductive to overthink this until we get the new Qld plan, but the ESOO update seems to say that Gladstone PTI solves this if delivered on time. So I think that's where we stand: see if Powerlink can commit and deliver the PTI, then course correct as needed if it faces delays.
Origin made no visible efforts to replace Eraring's output, while Rio have multiple GWs of PPAs in place plus support from Powerlink to enable a '29 closure (Gladstone PTI).
Not to say that someone won't find another reason to delay retirement, but they're quite different situations.
Not to say that someone won't find another reason to delay retirement, but they're quite different situations.
October 2, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Origin made no visible efforts to replace Eraring's output, while Rio have multiple GWs of PPAs in place plus support from Powerlink to enable a '29 closure (Gladstone PTI).
Not to say that someone won't find another reason to delay retirement, but they're quite different situations.
Not to say that someone won't find another reason to delay retirement, but they're quite different situations.
Do you know of previous cases of the PRC intentionally stranding assets and shrinking an industry for policy reasons? Any comparable cases to the coal industry that we can learn from historically?
September 29, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Do you know of previous cases of the PRC intentionally stranding assets and shrinking an industry for policy reasons? Any comparable cases to the coal industry that we can learn from historically?