The linear extrapolation of the past 15 years and the nonlinear 30-year extrapolation now both put global warming at +1.54°C above 1850-1900.

Reaching +2°C in 2037 or 2034.

Using the @ecmwf.int ERA5 dataset.

H/t @tugberksamur.bsky.social

It can no longer be denied: Climate change is progressing unabated and accelerating.

1.5°C limit for global warming agreed upon in Paris may already have been permanently exceeded.

3°C limit could be exceeded as early as 2050'

2/8

3°C of global warming by 2050 might be hard to imagine, but it could happen if the non-linear warming trend of the past 30 years continues.

See this graph with @ecmwf.int ERA5 data (trend line has an R² of 0.975), made using the code they provided, by
@tugberksamur.bsky.social

8/8

I have updated the graph. So our remaining carbon budget might be depleted by the end of this year or 2026 with the current warming rate, unlike the assumptions here: essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

That is quite the upper range of IPCC projections.

There's very little reason to assume 30-year linear warming extrapolation.

Emissions, forcings, Earth's Energy Imbalance and (especially variability corrected) temperature observations all indicate acceleration of global warming.

We should prepare for reaching +2.0°C soon!

@pfriedling.bsky.social @piersforster.bsky.social @robinlamboll.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social

Considering the RCB methodologies and the current data, is this graph logical?

Note this is for CO2 emissions, not all GHGs. If methane emissions stopped (which we can't, at least not entirely), global warming would not just stabilise but reduce by about 0.5°C over the following century.

Slowly moving here as I notice valuable people moving as well. Where they are, I want to be. No bots (yet), no stupid ads, no far-right madness.