Umit Singh Dhuga
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usdhuga.bsky.social
Umit Singh Dhuga
@usdhuga.bsky.social
1.6K followers 1.8K following 9.2K posts
Hedge fund manager.
Former Classics professor (PhD Columbia 2006; postdoc Harvard 2008).
Author of three books (philology & poetry)
Hyperpolyglot.
Pope.

Author website: https://www.usdhuga.com

Academic website: https://columbia.academia.edu/UmitDhuga
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usdhuga.bsky.social
a man wearing glasses and a suit is looking at the camera .
ALT: a man wearing glasses and a suit is looking at the camera .
media.tenor.com
February 4, 2026 at 3:32 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
a man in a white robe is sitting in a chair with a cross around his neck .
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media.tenor.com
February 4, 2026 at 3:31 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
The five year chart is breathtaking:
February 4, 2026 at 3:29 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
The 5 yr chart is a beauty:
February 4, 2026 at 3:27 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
I recommend looking at "Performance attribution for multifactorial equity portfolios" (Journal of Investment Strategies, 2021). Abergel and Heckel address what you’re describing: the struggle to distinguish between stock-specific returns (Alpha) and systematic factor returns (Beta).
February 4, 2026 at 3:17 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
a close up of a man wearing sunglasses with sky atlantic written on the bottom right
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February 4, 2026 at 3:07 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
Gift link above ☝️
February 4, 2026 at 2:36 AM
Reposted by Umit Singh Dhuga
edzitron.com
When I say "run out of money," I mean that Oracle cannot afford to pay the debt on its data centers if OpenAI does not pay it. For OpenAI to do so, it will have to make more money than Salesforce in the space of a year.
edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo...
Oracle Is Going To Default On Its Debts By 2028 Unless It Can Build 4.5GW of Data Centers In The Next Year And A Half, And Likely Needs Upwards of $150 Billion More In Debt To Do So Even if OpenAI makes the money, Oracle still needs the data centers. Oracle has already delayed multiple OpenAI data centers to 2028. Oracle is already having trouble raising funding for the data centers, and US banks are balking at working with it further. Oracle already has $95 billion in outstanding debt, with much of it yet to truly start accumulating interest (or requiring significant payments). Oracle has $248 billion in upcoming lease obligations for data centers to service OpenAI’s compute. OpenAI needs to raise $100 billion, and clearly needs to do it quickly, suggesting it will have significant difficulty paying Oracle. For any of this to work, OpenAI must be paying Oracle more than the ($75 billion in) annual revenue of Microsoft Azure in the next two years. This is not hyperbole - it’s quite literally the cost of the agreement that helped Oracle pump its stock. Even if Oracle rewrites the terms of its deal with OpenAI, the debt exists, the construction has started, and the expectations are set with the market that it will have made hundreds of billions of revenue from AI compute by 2030. Here is the very, very likely scenario: OpenAI folds within the next year or two, and Oracle sees its stock beaten to death by furious investors who have already drained it of 50% of its value since last September. In this scenario, Oracle must somehow reconcile with its various creditors, and while it’s likely created all manner of weird SPVs and other kinds of holding entity to distance itself from the damage, but nothing can keep creditors from your door when you’ve raised $38 billion, let alone the many more tens of billions to come if it wants to actually keep its end of the bargain. The problem I see is an inevitable reckoning with one or more realities: OpenAI will not h… In all of these scenarios, Oracle is left with massive amounts of debt, with some of it tied to construction milestones for projects it likely cannot afford to finish. I have for a while theorized that the $15 billion raised for Stargate Abilene is insufficient to complete it, and if any extra funding is required, it will send shockwaves through every data center deal as tightening debt markets make it tough to get things over the line. There’s no squaring this circle.
January 30, 2026 at 12:34 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
culpa nulla sit, error tamen quantus fuerit vides. - Ovid
February 2, 2026 at 3:30 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
BCP > BTC

iykyk
February 2, 2026 at 3:28 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
Pray.
February 2, 2026 at 3:25 AM
Reposted by Umit Singh Dhuga
berkshire-haddaway.bsky.social
Cartoon from 1982 (!!).
February 1, 2026 at 10:01 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
Cc @metronorthcapital.bsky.social
February 2, 2026 at 2:31 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
I have not seen Zatoichi! Thanks for the recommendation.

(“Ronin towards that ideal”…the one time I’ve been grateful that this app has no edit button!)
January 30, 2026 at 6:38 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
a man wearing a hat and a trench coat is looking at the camera
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January 30, 2026 at 6:28 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
a man in a paisley shirt is sitting in front of a house .
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January 30, 2026 at 6:23 AM
usdhuga.bsky.social
A few years ago, before my papal phase, I was in an acute samurai phase.
January 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM