Umit Singh Dhuga
@usdhuga.bsky.social
Hedge fund manager.
Former Classics professor (PhD Columbia 2006; postdoc Harvard 2008).
Author of three books (philology & poetry)
Hyperpolyglot.
Pope.
Author website: https://www.usdhuga.com
Academic website: https://columbia.academia.edu/UmitDhuga
Former Classics professor (PhD Columbia 2006; postdoc Harvard 2008).
Author of three books (philology & poetry)
Hyperpolyglot.
Pope.
Author website: https://www.usdhuga.com
Academic website: https://columbia.academia.edu/UmitDhuga
Pinned
Reposted by Umit Singh Dhuga
When I say "run out of money," I mean that Oracle cannot afford to pay the debt on its data centers if OpenAI does not pay it. For OpenAI to do so, it will have to make more money than Salesforce in the space of a year.
edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo...
edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo...
January 30, 2026 at 12:34 AM
When I say "run out of money," I mean that Oracle cannot afford to pay the debt on its data centers if OpenAI does not pay it. For OpenAI to do so, it will have to make more money than Salesforce in the space of a year.
edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo...
edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo...
Reposted by Umit Singh Dhuga
Cartoon from 1982 (!!).
February 1, 2026 at 10:01 AM
Cartoon from 1982 (!!).
Describe your Bluesky account in a single image:
January 31, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Describe your Bluesky account in a single image:
Re-upping this.
The crucible for silver and the furnace for gold, but the Lord tests the heart.
— Proverbs 17:3
Not investment advice.
— Proverbs 17:3
Not investment advice.
January 31, 2026 at 3:48 AM
Re-upping this.
Did you cancel your free trial?
If, like me, you’re on the 30-day free trial subscription for The Year 2026 and you want to cancel, I think Friday 23 January is the last day to cancel without getting billed for the whole year.
Not investment advice.
Not investment advice.
January 30, 2026 at 7:08 AM
Did you cancel your free trial?
Tillis (R-NC) stated: “I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed — including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy — until this legal matter is fully resolved.”
So any official announcement of any nominee — not just because it’s Warsh — should cause UST yields at the back end to rise.
So any official announcement of any nominee — not just because it’s Warsh — should cause UST yields at the back end to rise.
I suspect that the market reaction to the Warsh news is not about Warsh per se, but rather about the fiscal dominance and legal prematurity of the nomination’s timing.
Recall that Tillis took a hardline stance against advancing any Fed nominees whilst the DoJ investigation into Powell is active.
Recall that Tillis took a hardline stance against advancing any Fed nominees whilst the DoJ investigation into Powell is active.
January 30, 2026 at 5:30 AM
Tillis (R-NC) stated: “I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed — including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy — until this legal matter is fully resolved.”
So any official announcement of any nominee — not just because it’s Warsh — should cause UST yields at the back end to rise.
So any official announcement of any nominee — not just because it’s Warsh — should cause UST yields at the back end to rise.
I suspect that the market reaction to the Warsh news is not about Warsh per se, but rather about the fiscal dominance and legal prematurity of the nomination’s timing.
Recall that Tillis took a hardline stance against advancing any Fed nominees whilst the DoJ investigation into Powell is active.
Recall that Tillis took a hardline stance against advancing any Fed nominees whilst the DoJ investigation into Powell is active.
January 30, 2026 at 5:22 AM
I suspect that the market reaction to the Warsh news is not about Warsh per se, but rather about the fiscal dominance and legal prematurity of the nomination’s timing.
Recall that Tillis took a hardline stance against advancing any Fed nominees whilst the DoJ investigation into Powell is active.
Recall that Tillis took a hardline stance against advancing any Fed nominees whilst the DoJ investigation into Powell is active.
Excellent read.
Read the full report here: www.commoditycontext.com/p/barreling-...
Barreling Ahead: Realizing—or Denying?—The Glut
The oil market in 2025 ended up much looser than anyone expected and expectations for 2026 balances are beginning to tighten after nearly a year of ever-weaker outlooks.
www.commoditycontext.com
January 30, 2026 at 4:11 AM
Excellent read.
January 30, 2026 at 3:58 AM
Excellent point — the contango speaks volumes (or, depending on your view, the contango isn’t listening).
During the peak of the Israel-Iran War rally in crude prices last June the entire Brent futures curve shifted back into backwardation (blue curve)
Today we've still in smiley-face curve land (white)
But there's your comp where what it'll look like if we ramp a level higher here
Today we've still in smiley-face curve land (white)
But there's your comp where what it'll look like if we ramp a level higher here
January 30, 2026 at 3:57 AM
Excellent point — the contango speaks volumes (or, depending on your view, the contango isn’t listening).
“An FT analysis of government contracting data shows that…Palantir has received nearly $100mn in contracts from ICE since January 2025, while Deloitte…has been handed new work totalling more than $100mn from ICE and CBP over the same period.”
Gift article 🎁
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Gift article 🎁
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Companies reap $22bn from Trump’s immigration crackdown
Palantir and Deloitte among beneficiaries of spending by government agencies
giftarticle.ft.com
January 29, 2026 at 4:55 PM
“An FT analysis of government contracting data shows that…Palantir has received nearly $100mn in contracts from ICE since January 2025, while Deloitte…has been handed new work totalling more than $100mn from ICE and CBP over the same period.”
Gift article 🎁
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Gift article 🎁
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Umit Singh Dhuga
But why is gold going up?
It’s right here.
It’s right here.
January 29, 2026 at 7:02 AM
But why is gold going up?
It’s right here.
It’s right here.
Life as a Roman in AD 54. Week three.
January 29, 2026 at 6:18 AM
Life as a Roman in AD 54. Week three.
Seven metals here, 1 year (left) and 1 month (right).
Normalised (factor 100).
Normalised (factor 100).
January 29, 2026 at 6:05 AM
Seven metals here, 1 year (left) and 1 month (right).
Normalised (factor 100).
Normalised (factor 100).
The implication here on Boxing Day 2025 was that gold was a relative laggard.
January 29, 2026 at 5:55 AM
The implication here on Boxing Day 2025 was that gold was a relative laggard.
This post from just over one month ago was, importantly, not investment advice.
Here’s a chart of ETFs that give specific exposure to platinum, palladium, silver — legend on right — all vs SPY (broken into price return and total return).
Silver and gold have dominated news because of the safe-haven narrative; palladium and platinum show an industrial demand narrative as well.
Silver and gold have dominated news because of the safe-haven narrative; palladium and platinum show an industrial demand narrative as well.
January 29, 2026 at 5:50 AM
This post from just over one month ago was, importantly, not investment advice.
A basket of metals — precious and other — seems irresistible at present. As momentum goes parabolic on gold and silver, there are numerous reasons for aluminium, copper, nickel, palladium, platinum, and zinc to participate as well.
Does FOMO care if it’s USD-denominated?
Not investment advice.
Does FOMO care if it’s USD-denominated?
Not investment advice.
January 29, 2026 at 5:44 AM
A basket of metals — precious and other — seems irresistible at present. As momentum goes parabolic on gold and silver, there are numerous reasons for aluminium, copper, nickel, palladium, platinum, and zinc to participate as well.
Does FOMO care if it’s USD-denominated?
Not investment advice.
Does FOMO care if it’s USD-denominated?
Not investment advice.
iykyk
“Deuterium is the one where they enter the Promised Land, right?”
“You’re thinking of Deuteronomy”
“You’re thinking of Deuteronomy”
January 29, 2026 at 5:23 AM
iykyk
The crucible for silver and the furnace for gold, but the Lord tests the heart.
— Proverbs 17:3
Not investment advice.
— Proverbs 17:3
Not investment advice.
January 29, 2026 at 4:35 AM
The crucible for silver and the furnace for gold, but the Lord tests the heart.
— Proverbs 17:3
Not investment advice.
— Proverbs 17:3
Not investment advice.
#$ASML earnings:
“bookings in the fourth quarter were a record €13.2 billion ($16.1 billion). That compares with an average analyst estimate of €6.85 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”
Gift link 🎁
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“bookings in the fourth quarter were a record €13.2 billion ($16.1 billion). That compares with an average analyst estimate of €6.85 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”
Gift link 🎁
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
ASML’s Record Orders Beat Estimates as AI Spending Spurs Demand
ASML Holding NV’s orders in the fourth quarter exceeded analysts’ expectations, as the rapid development of artificial intelligence infrastructure boosted demand for its cutting-edge chip-making machi...
www.bloomberg.com
January 28, 2026 at 6:30 AM
#$ASML earnings:
“bookings in the fourth quarter were a record €13.2 billion ($16.1 billion). That compares with an average analyst estimate of €6.85 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”
Gift link 🎁
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“bookings in the fourth quarter were a record €13.2 billion ($16.1 billion). That compares with an average analyst estimate of €6.85 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”
Gift link 🎁
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Umit Singh Dhuga
“.. Our proprietary measure of cash-on-the-sidelines for the US shows it is at a record low as % of the US equity market cap. And yes, it includes retail and institutional money market funds!”
@budaghyanarthur @dailychartbook.bsky.social
@budaghyanarthur @dailychartbook.bsky.social
January 27, 2026 at 1:12 AM
“.. Our proprietary measure of cash-on-the-sidelines for the US shows it is at a record low as % of the US equity market cap. And yes, it includes retail and institutional money market funds!”
@budaghyanarthur @dailychartbook.bsky.social
@budaghyanarthur @dailychartbook.bsky.social
I rather enjoyed this.
January 27, 2026 at 3:19 AM
I rather enjoyed this.
