2026* 🙄

And full NYT article w/o paywall or login:

archive.is/rUYS4

Last week my colleague @andresazp.bsky.social talked more about this and the general state of internet infrastructure in Venezuela with @eldomador.bsky.social and @networkphil.com

bsky.app/profile/eldo...

At @vesinfiltro.bsky.social we've monitored #internetVE connectivity for years. The data from that day doesn't support the claim of a massive power outage across Caracas, only localized disruptions (some lasting over 48 hours).

Why is there an interest in pushing the cyberattack theory?

Even the photo used on the article's cover can be deceptive considering that it was taken in San Luis, El Cafetal, during sunrise. There wasn't a power outage there at that time, people were just... trying to sleep after the chaos.

You can even see homes with their lights on.

Affirming that a U.S. cyberattack caused a large scale power outage in Caracas on Jan 3, while not even mentioning the intentional bombing of power infrastructure, is misleading.

The NYT article is speculative and doesn't provide any technical evidence.

👉 arstechnica.com/security/202...

It was later confirmed that the attacks hit at least two electrical substations, one of them located in Fuerte Tiuna, where Maduro was captured.

Nearby neighborhoods such as Coche, El Valle, Los Rosales, Santa Mónica, among others were affected by this.

proboxve.org/publicacion/...

Top: view of Caracas at night from Naiguatá Peak, 2014.

Bottom: view of Caracas at night from Naigutá Peak during the US military operation on 2025-01-03

The data suggests that the internet connectivity remained stable in most areas of the capital, but several neighborhoods near the affected targets got disconnected.

This aligns with power outage reports in the west and south-west parts of Caracas, as well as video evidence.

Another metric we monitor is traffic volume. Both @radar.cloudflare.com and @kentik.bsky.social actually showed a surge in traffic right after the first attacks, not only at a country level but also from Caracas.

Millions woke up after the explosions and went online looking for information.

The other Caracas municipalities (Baruta, El Hatillo, Chacao and Sucre) are located within Miranda state, which didn't show any significant connectivity drops.

A total city blackout, even for a few minutes, would have been noticeable in IODA's metrics.

ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4503?...

Active probing data from @ioda.live indicates a ~10% drop in connectivity in Dtto. Capital that started around 2:00 AM VET, the same moment the first explosions were heard in the city.

This only covers Libertador, one of the 5 municipalities of the Caracas metropolitan area.

I want to start by saying we don't know the extent of the role that the U.S. Cyber Command played during the operation.

However, the data shows a correlation between physical damages to electrical infrastructure and the power outages suffered in parts of Caracas.