Will Marble
wpmarble.bsky.social
Will Marble
@wpmarble.bsky.social
Political scientist at the Hoover Institution at Stanford || williammarble.co
Yep! Different estimation framework entirely but similar in spirit to this approach. I haven't read the paper you linked but looks like it builds on this one which influenced my thinking on this problem academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
Combining Micro and Macro Data in Microeconometric Models
Abstract. Census reports can be interpreted as providing nearly exact knowledge of moments of the marginal distribution of economic variables. This informa
academic.oup.com
January 9, 2026 at 1:50 AM
In principle yes. Data requirements are: individual level Y1, Y2, X (survey); ground-truth joint distribution of X (census); known marginals of Y2 (auxiliary data). Also need svy to include relevant geographic vars to link to ground-truth Y2 (though this can be relaxed, see sec 5 of the paper)
January 9, 2026 at 12:49 AM
This package is a companion to my paper with Josh Clinton on MRP calibration (osf.io/preprints/so...)

Please let me know if you try it out the package and email me or file a github issue if you find bugs. Thanks!
OSF
osf.io
January 8, 2026 at 11:52 PM
This function also works to implement the "logit shift" calibration with a single outcome — e.g. to ensure your subgroup estimates of vote choice are consistent with known election outcomes.
January 8, 2026 at 11:52 PM
The package supports both full Bayesian calibration (i.e. calibrating each draw from the posterior) as well as a plug-in estimator which works with posterior summaries.
January 8, 2026 at 11:52 PM
calibratedMRP provides a high-level interface for doing this type of calibration. First, specify a `brms` multilevel regression model. Second, call the `calibrate_mrp()` function to calibrate cell-level estimates to known geographic margins. Third, poststratify to the target groups.
January 8, 2026 at 11:52 PM
calibratedMRP implements a calibration procedure that accounts for known margins of Y2 to improve estimates of Y1.

Intuition: if your MRP model overestimates Biden vote share, it probably overestimates liberal policy attitudes too. The method implemented here accounts for this discrepancy.
January 8, 2026 at 11:52 PM
Suppose you have a survey that measures policy attitudes (Y1) alongside demographics (X) and related behavior (Y2). You have population data on the joint distribution of X from the census, but only coarse geographic aggregates (e.g. election results) of Y2.
January 8, 2026 at 11:52 PM
I have never seen Casablanca [embarrassing admission] but am resolved to watching it this week
November 21, 2025 at 8:47 PM