Will Marble
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wpmarble.bsky.social
Will Marble
@wpmarble.bsky.social
910 followers 290 following 56 posts
Political scientist at the Hoover Institution at Stanford || williammarble.co
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wpmarble.bsky.social
This post has some more discussion of other methods for incorporating known ground-truth margins in an MRP framework, based on some validation exercises in osf.io/preprints/so...
January 8, 2026 at 11:55 PM
wpmarble.bsky.social
Folks doing public opinion research: I wrote an R package called `calibratedMRP` that implements methods to calibrate MRP estimates to known geographic-level ground truth (e.g. election results)

github.com/wpmarble/cal...
GitHub - wpmarble/calibratedMRP: An R package with tools to generate small-area estimates from survey and administrative data
An R package with tools to generate small-area estimates from survey and administrative data - wpmarble/calibratedMRP
github.com
January 8, 2026 at 11:52 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
bjpols.bsky.social
NEW -

Foreign Policy Failures and Global Attitudes Towards Great Powers: Evidence from the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan - https://cup.org/3YSsX4N

- @rachelmyrick.bsky.social & @wpmarble.bsky.social

#OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract from a scholarly article about the perceived foreign policy failures of the US in Afghanistan and its impact on global perceptions of US leadership. The text mentions a survey across 24 countries and findings on changes in favorability after the fall of Kabul on 15 August 2021.
January 2, 2026 at 10:10 AM
Reposted by Will Marble
shiraamitchell.bsky.social
blog post: 3rd helpings of the logit shift

You have multiple outcomes, but only some have aggregate truth to shift to.

How can we calibrate our estimates of p(y_1, y_2 | X) to aggregate data about E[y_1] ?

@wpmarble.bsky.social and Josh Clinton have ideas !
December 16, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
mamalik.bsky.social
New paper in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵
December 8, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
brendannyhan.bsky.social
My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:

Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
October 6, 2025 at 11:48 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
gelliottmorris.com
Why most polls overstate support for political violence
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...
Why most polls overstate support for political violence
Misperceptions about the popularity of violence increase public support for it — but you can help change that.
www.gelliottmorris.com
October 7, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
stano.bsky.social
Absolutely momentous day for California. We're turning the corner on housing at the very moment America needs us to.
acbowen.bsky.social Andrew Bowen (he/him) @acbowen.bsky.social · Sep 12
SB 79 has the votes!
September 12, 2025 at 10:25 PM
wpmarble.bsky.social
Job/life update: Today was my last day at Penn, where I've been lucky to teach amazing students and work with great colleagues for the past 3 years. This fall, I'll join @hooverinstitution.bsky.social as a Hoover Fellow—I'm excited to join a vibrant, interdisciplinary community of scholars there.
August 1, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
jenvictor.bsky.social
I made an event timeline to try to make sense of all the federal overreach at @georgemasonu.bsky.social and whoo boy. When you lay it out like this, the executive over reach comes into focus. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
Authoritarians are attacking universities. Here's how it's going at one public school.
I'm publicly documenting an event timeline to help bring order to the chaotic nature of events and help other schools plan the responses they are likely going to need.
open.substack.com
July 31, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
gregsargent.bsky.social
Wow. A group of top scholars at Harvard just sent a letter to its president, Alan Garber, warning against surrendering to Trump.

Signatories include Steven Levitsky, Dani Rodrik, Ryan Enos, Theda Skocpol, and Steven Walt.

Someone forwarded it to me. Read it here:
July 31, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
wpmarble.bsky.social
Universities often serve as "anchor institutions" that deeply affect the character of their communities. In a new paper, we estimate how (and when) the establishment of a college influences local political and civic life. 🧵

osf.io/preprints/so...
Screenshot of title page. "The Long-Run Effects of Colleges on Civic and Political Life" by Michael J. Andrews, William Marble, and Lauren Russell. Abstract: Social theorists and education advocates have long argued for the civic benefits of education. As large, durable institutions, universities are especially likely to affect the civic life of their communities. We investigate how the establishment of a university alters the civic and political trajectory of the surrounding area. For identification, we leverage historical site selection processes in which multiple locations were considered for new colleges. We bring together data on social capital, political preferences, and elections to assess the long-run impacts of college establishment. Communities with colleges exhibit higher levels of civic engagement and greater social trust today, relative to “runner-up” locations without colleges. These counties are also more politically liberal — a gap that has grown substantially since 2000. Our findings suggest understanding universities as place-based policies that shape the long-run civic and political development of their communities. They also shed light on current political battles over higher education policy.
July 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
wpmarble.bsky.social
Nothing more American than getting a head start on work by taking a meeting in your car while you commute to work by yourself
moreperfectunion.bsky.social More Perfect Union @moreperfectunion.bsky.social · Jul 24
Microsoft and Mercedes‑Benz are working together to let people access Teams from the car.

Benz is the first car maker to enable in-car camera use for Teams while a car is being driven.

The companies are also partnering to put Microsoft 365 Copilot into vehicles.

www.theverge.com/news/708481/...
Mercedes-Benz will let you use an in-car camera in Microsoft Teams while driving
The all-new CLA gets this first
www.theverge.com
July 24, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
albrgr.bsky.social
Very cool paper about how important social networks are in driving movement
conference.nber.org/conf_papers...
July 22, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
joshchafetz.bsky.social
I just posted a new paper on @ssrn.bsky.social, titled "The Chadha Presidency". Here's the link, and I'll post the abstract in the next post. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The <i>Chadha </i>Presidency
<p><span>Where is Congress? Why hasn’t it reined in some of the worst abuses of the Trump Administration? This Article argues that a significant part of the ans
papers.ssrn.com
July 21, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
adambonica.bsky.social
Been a busy year in the data mines.📊 Just published my mid-year roundup: 29 data visualizations on the state of US democracy, tracking everything from judicial resistance to billionaire influence to why Dems have a mobilization crisis, not a moderation problem.

All charts free to use:
On Data and Democracy (Mid-Year Roundup): Charting the Assault on American Democracy and A Path Forward
A narrative of a democracy in the balance, told through 29 data visualizations.
open.substack.com
July 19, 2025 at 3:44 PM
wpmarble.bsky.social
Universities often serve as "anchor institutions" that deeply affect the character of their communities. In a new paper, we estimate how (and when) the establishment of a college influences local political and civic life. 🧵

osf.io/preprints/so...
Screenshot of title page. "The Long-Run Effects of Colleges on Civic and Political Life" by Michael J. Andrews, William Marble, and Lauren Russell. Abstract: Social theorists and education advocates have long argued for the civic benefits of education. As large, durable institutions, universities are especially likely to affect the civic life of their communities. We investigate how the establishment of a university alters the civic and political trajectory of the surrounding area. For identification, we leverage historical site selection processes in which multiple locations were considered for new colleges. We bring together data on social capital, political preferences, and elections to assess the long-run impacts of college establishment. Communities with colleges exhibit higher levels of civic engagement and greater social trust today, relative to “runner-up” locations without colleges. These counties are also more politically liberal — a gap that has grown substantially since 2000. Our findings suggest understanding universities as place-based policies that shape the long-run civic and political development of their communities. They also shed light on current political battles over higher education policy.
July 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
nateela.bsky.social
Horrendous. In attempting to reclassify Head Start as “welfare” rather than education, the Trump administration is trying an end run around Supreme Court precedent that protects undocumented children from limits to education based on their immigration status. 🧵
lea9223.bsky.social Lea Woods @lea9223.bsky.social · Jul 10
HHS announced today they will consider Head Start a welfare program, not an education program, and will subject it to new citizenship requirements. This goes against decades of legal precedence that all children in America have a right to education. Announcement here. www.hhs.gov/press-room/p...
www.hhs.gov
July 10, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
donmoyn.bsky.social
War on universities, war on science, war on knowledge
June 24, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
dangaristo.bsky.social
NEW: NSF will be kicked out of their building. Announcement will be made tomorrow by HUD Sec. and Governor of VA. HUD will take over the NSF building over the next two years.

NSF staffer: "There is no planning for NSF, no identified future location, appropriation for a new building or a move."
June 24, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
A reminder of how the number of centrifuges in Iran soared after Trump’s 2018 JCPOA withdrawal.

@brendannyhan.bsky.social
June 22, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
profsaunders.bsky.social
America now has the foreign policy of a personalist dictator. New piece from me in @foreignaffairs.com

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Imperial President at Home, Emperor Abroad
American foreign policy in an age of unrestrained executive power.
www.foreignaffairs.com
June 16, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Reposted by Will Marble
indivisible.org
There are nearly 100,000 people at the rally in Philadelphia. #NoKings
June 14, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
donmoyn.bsky.social
She is saying, in effect: "We are going to liberate the city from its democratically elected leadership using the military"
justinbaragona.bsky.social Justin Baragona @justinbaragona.bsky.social · Jun 12
Kristi Noem: "We are not going away. We are staying here to liberate the city from the socialists and the burdensome leadership that this governor and that this mayor have placed on this country and what they have tried to insert into the city."

Sen. Alex Padilla is then forcibly removed!
June 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Reposted by Will Marble
brendannyhan.bsky.social
What would you say if you saw it in another country? A senator from a coequal branch of government dragged away by security to prevent him from asking a question of a Cabinet official and arrested
hawaiidelilah.bsky.social HawaiiDelilah™ 🌊 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇺🇦🇬🇧 @hawaiidelilah.bsky.social · Jun 12
A US senator is assaulted and cuffed for asking a question at a press conference held by the Sec of Homeland Security. We now live in an authoritarian regime where the political opposition can be detained and rounded up.
June 12, 2025 at 6:35 PM