Jonathan Erdman
@wxjerdman.bsky.social
Senior meteorologist @weatherchannel. M.S. Colorado State Univ.; B.S. UW-Madison; Insightful. Interesting. Impactful. Weather. Opinions are mine only, not of my employer.
Spring fever update: How do low 50s sound in the Twin Cities?
Or perhaps low 60s in Chicagoland?
Of course, it won't last long. And it will be breezy. But enjoy this spring tease.
Or perhaps low 60s in Chicagoland?
Of course, it won't last long. And it will be breezy. But enjoy this spring tease.
February 13, 2026 at 12:13 PM
Spring fever update: How do low 50s sound in the Twin Cities?
Or perhaps low 60s in Chicagoland?
Of course, it won't last long. And it will be breezy. But enjoy this spring tease.
Or perhaps low 60s in Chicagoland?
Of course, it won't last long. And it will be breezy. But enjoy this spring tease.
Cyclone Gezani's anticipated "second wind" is well underway.
Uncomfortably close pass to Mozambique's Inhambane Province forecast for late Friday night - early Saturday, local time.
(Gfx: CIRA, Tomer Burg)
Uncomfortably close pass to Mozambique's Inhambane Province forecast for late Friday night - early Saturday, local time.
(Gfx: CIRA, Tomer Burg)
February 12, 2026 at 12:54 PM
Cyclone Gezani's anticipated "second wind" is well underway.
Uncomfortably close pass to Mozambique's Inhambane Province forecast for late Friday night - early Saturday, local time.
(Gfx: CIRA, Tomer Burg)
Uncomfortably close pass to Mozambique's Inhambane Province forecast for late Friday night - early Saturday, local time.
(Gfx: CIRA, Tomer Burg)
50˚F is usually the threshold at which high school or college kids wear shorts running outside here in the upper Midwest.
Looks like a good bet of that for parts of the upper Midwest for a few days starting this weekend.
Mini taste of spring. 💐
Looks like a good bet of that for parts of the upper Midwest for a few days starting this weekend.
Mini taste of spring. 💐
February 11, 2026 at 5:08 PM
50˚F is usually the threshold at which high school or college kids wear shorts running outside here in the upper Midwest.
Looks like a good bet of that for parts of the upper Midwest for a few days starting this weekend.
Mini taste of spring. 💐
Looks like a good bet of that for parts of the upper Midwest for a few days starting this weekend.
Mini taste of spring. 💐
While it will be quite windy (the price to pay for warmth this far north this early) & fleeting, how about a little "spring fever" early next week.
First 50 in the Twin Cities since the Sunday before Thanksgiving.
Flirting with 60 in parts of Chicagoland.
70s in to parts of Iowa? 👏
First 50 in the Twin Cities since the Sunday before Thanksgiving.
Flirting with 60 in parts of Chicagoland.
70s in to parts of Iowa? 👏
February 11, 2026 at 10:30 AM
While it will be quite windy (the price to pay for warmth this far north this early) & fleeting, how about a little "spring fever" early next week.
First 50 in the Twin Cities since the Sunday before Thanksgiving.
Flirting with 60 in parts of Chicagoland.
70s in to parts of Iowa? 👏
First 50 in the Twin Cities since the Sunday before Thanksgiving.
Flirting with 60 in parts of Chicagoland.
70s in to parts of Iowa? 👏
Cyclone Gezani appears to be the strongest cyclone to landfall near Toamasina, Madagascar, in over 30 years.
Here were the impacts from the closest Cat. 3+ 32 years ago: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane_bl...
Here were the impacts from the closest Cat. 3+ 32 years ago: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane_bl...
February 10, 2026 at 4:41 PM
Cyclone Gezani appears to be the strongest cyclone to landfall near Toamasina, Madagascar, in over 30 years.
Here were the impacts from the closest Cat. 3+ 32 years ago: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane_bl...
Here were the impacts from the closest Cat. 3+ 32 years ago: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane_bl...
From Monday's NCEI January report...10 states from Texas to the West Coast had their record warmest "November - January" period in 131 years.
Only somewhat "below average" in MA, OH, PA.
Only somewhat "below average" in MA, OH, PA.
February 10, 2026 at 10:18 AM
From Monday's NCEI January report...10 states from Texas to the West Coast had their record warmest "November - January" period in 131 years.
Only somewhat "below average" in MA, OH, PA.
Only somewhat "below average" in MA, OH, PA.
Cyclone Gezani is headed for a landfall in Madagascar at ~ Cat. 3 intensity, the strongest landfall of 2026, so far, and strongest in Madagascar since Batsirai 4 years ago.
Heavy rain, some wind threat for Antananarivo, then could flirt with S. Mozambique this weekend.
Heavy rain, some wind threat for Antananarivo, then could flirt with S. Mozambique this weekend.
February 10, 2026 at 9:55 AM
Cyclone Gezani is headed for a landfall in Madagascar at ~ Cat. 3 intensity, the strongest landfall of 2026, so far, and strongest in Madagascar since Batsirai 4 years ago.
Heavy rain, some wind threat for Antananarivo, then could flirt with S. Mozambique this weekend.
Heavy rain, some wind threat for Antananarivo, then could flirt with S. Mozambique this weekend.
12 days after the ice storm, nearly all power has been restored in Tennessee (still ~827 customers w/o power).
Still ~ 20k without power in northern Mississippi, per poweroutage.com.
Still ~ 20k without power in northern Mississippi, per poweroutage.com.
February 6, 2026 at 12:23 PM
12 days after the ice storm, nearly all power has been restored in Tennessee (still ~827 customers w/o power).
Still ~ 20k without power in northern Mississippi, per poweroutage.com.
Still ~ 20k without power in northern Mississippi, per poweroutage.com.
Among top 10 coldest "Jan. 15 - Feb. 4" three-week periods on record for much of the East, per SERCC.
Third coldest in 153 years in Detroit, coldest since 1963.
Also third coldest in 149 years in Pittsburgh, their coldest since 1977.
Third coldest in 153 years in Detroit, coldest since 1963.
Also third coldest in 149 years in Pittsburgh, their coldest since 1977.
February 6, 2026 at 11:06 AM
Among top 10 coldest "Jan. 15 - Feb. 4" three-week periods on record for much of the East, per SERCC.
Third coldest in 153 years in Detroit, coldest since 1963.
Also third coldest in 149 years in Pittsburgh, their coldest since 1977.
Third coldest in 153 years in Detroit, coldest since 1963.
Also third coldest in 149 years in Pittsburgh, their coldest since 1977.
Down to ~29k without power from the ice storm 11 days ago, primarily now in MS, TN, per poweroutage.com.
That's 14k fewer than 24 hours ago.
Again, kudos to the utility crews working feverishly.
That's 14k fewer than 24 hours ago.
Again, kudos to the utility crews working feverishly.
February 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Down to ~29k without power from the ice storm 11 days ago, primarily now in MS, TN, per poweroutage.com.
That's 14k fewer than 24 hours ago.
Again, kudos to the utility crews working feverishly.
That's 14k fewer than 24 hours ago.
Again, kudos to the utility crews working feverishly.
Today encapsulates what winter 2025-26 has been, so far.
About as warm or warmer today in Portland, OR and Great Falls, MT, as Tampa.
The upper level anomalies so far this winter (since Dec. 1) are about as stark as you'll see.
And not exactly out of the "La Niña" textbook, either.
About as warm or warmer today in Portland, OR and Great Falls, MT, as Tampa.
The upper level anomalies so far this winter (since Dec. 1) are about as stark as you'll see.
And not exactly out of the "La Niña" textbook, either.
February 5, 2026 at 9:55 AM
Today encapsulates what winter 2025-26 has been, so far.
About as warm or warmer today in Portland, OR and Great Falls, MT, as Tampa.
The upper level anomalies so far this winter (since Dec. 1) are about as stark as you'll see.
And not exactly out of the "La Niña" textbook, either.
About as warm or warmer today in Portland, OR and Great Falls, MT, as Tampa.
The upper level anomalies so far this winter (since Dec. 1) are about as stark as you'll see.
And not exactly out of the "La Niña" textbook, either.
Still ~43k without power this morning in TN, MS, LA, 10 days after the ice storm ended, per poweroutage.com.
That's 19k fewer than 24 hours ago.
Kudos to power crews working long hours to reconnect users after this historic event.
That's 19k fewer than 24 hours ago.
Kudos to power crews working long hours to reconnect users after this historic event.
February 4, 2026 at 12:24 PM
Still ~43k without power this morning in TN, MS, LA, 10 days after the ice storm ended, per poweroutage.com.
That's 19k fewer than 24 hours ago.
Kudos to power crews working long hours to reconnect users after this historic event.
That's 19k fewer than 24 hours ago.
Kudos to power crews working long hours to reconnect users after this historic event.
The recent cold outbreak's effect on nearshore surface water temps in Florida. 🥶
February 4, 2026 at 11:55 AM
The recent cold outbreak's effect on nearshore surface water temps in Florida. 🥶
Not surprisingly, record warm winters-to-date in many West cities, including Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Albuquerque, Portland.
Pretty stunning to see how much SLC is pummeling their previous record warmest season-to-date.
(Data: SERCC)
Pretty stunning to see how much SLC is pummeling their previous record warmest season-to-date.
(Data: SERCC)
February 3, 2026 at 12:58 PM
Not surprisingly, record warm winters-to-date in many West cities, including Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Albuquerque, Portland.
Pretty stunning to see how much SLC is pummeling their previous record warmest season-to-date.
(Data: SERCC)
Pretty stunning to see how much SLC is pummeling their previous record warmest season-to-date.
(Data: SERCC)
5 days after the precipitation from last weekend's winter storm ended. (Source: poweroutage.us)
January 30, 2026 at 10:49 AM
5 days after the precipitation from last weekend's winter storm ended. (Source: poweroutage.us)
Oh, to be in Phoenix, L.A. or San Diego this weekend...rather than Florida. 😆
January 29, 2026 at 2:28 PM
Oh, to be in Phoenix, L.A. or San Diego this weekend...rather than Florida. 😆
As late August and September go in hurricane season...
...so goes late January and February in "winter storm season".
...so goes late January and February in "winter storm season".
January 29, 2026 at 1:53 PM
As late August and September go in hurricane season...
...so goes late January and February in "winter storm season".
...so goes late January and February in "winter storm season".
With the caveat that it's based on a forecast, per SERCC, this could be among the coldest "January 19 - February 1" two-week stretches on record in the East.
January 29, 2026 at 1:02 PM
With the caveat that it's based on a forecast, per SERCC, this could be among the coldest "January 19 - February 1" two-week stretches on record in the East.
Our East Coast storm snow outlook yesterday and today.
Keeping a steady hand with best heavier snow chances in VA/Carolinas & eastern New England, for now.
Keeping a steady hand with best heavier snow chances in VA/Carolinas & eastern New England, for now.
January 28, 2026 at 11:17 AM
Our East Coast storm snow outlook yesterday and today.
Keeping a steady hand with best heavier snow chances in VA/Carolinas & eastern New England, for now.
Keeping a steady hand with best heavier snow chances in VA/Carolinas & eastern New England, for now.
Still typical track uncertainty re: the "40/70 benchmark" Sunday.
Euro, Canadian ensemble means would be "outside", but still members "inside". Matters for wind, snow impacts, especially New England, which is quite snow-fatigued after last weekend.
Euro, Canadian ensemble means would be "outside", but still members "inside". Matters for wind, snow impacts, especially New England, which is quite snow-fatigued after last weekend.
January 28, 2026 at 10:26 AM
Still typical track uncertainty re: the "40/70 benchmark" Sunday.
Euro, Canadian ensemble means would be "outside", but still members "inside". Matters for wind, snow impacts, especially New England, which is quite snow-fatigued after last weekend.
Euro, Canadian ensemble means would be "outside", but still members "inside". Matters for wind, snow impacts, especially New England, which is quite snow-fatigued after last weekend.
Yes, more record cold is possible in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, but it's the Florida cold this weekend that has my 👀.
Mid-30s lows in Miami could be their coldest since mid-Dec. 2010.
40s highs in central Florida Sunday.
Apologies for those on a "winter getaway" in the Sunshine State.
Mid-30s lows in Miami could be their coldest since mid-Dec. 2010.
40s highs in central Florida Sunday.
Apologies for those on a "winter getaway" in the Sunshine State.
January 27, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Yes, more record cold is possible in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, but it's the Florida cold this weekend that has my 👀.
Mid-30s lows in Miami could be their coldest since mid-Dec. 2010.
40s highs in central Florida Sunday.
Apologies for those on a "winter getaway" in the Sunshine State.
Mid-30s lows in Miami could be their coldest since mid-Dec. 2010.
40s highs in central Florida Sunday.
Apologies for those on a "winter getaway" in the Sunshine State.
Snow cover before (Jan. 23) and after (Jan. 26) the winter storm.
56% coverage of Lower 48 Monday AM is by far most widespread of 2025-26 season, so far.
(Credit: NOHRSC)
56% coverage of Lower 48 Monday AM is by far most widespread of 2025-26 season, so far.
(Credit: NOHRSC)
January 26, 2026 at 12:35 PM
Snow cover before (Jan. 23) and after (Jan. 26) the winter storm.
56% coverage of Lower 48 Monday AM is by far most widespread of 2025-26 season, so far.
(Credit: NOHRSC)
56% coverage of Lower 48 Monday AM is by far most widespread of 2025-26 season, so far.
(Credit: NOHRSC)
Over 700 reports of ice accumulations and or ice storm damage have been received by NWS offices from Jan. 23-26, from New Mexico to New England.
January 26, 2026 at 11:17 AM
Over 700 reports of ice accumulations and or ice storm damage have been received by NWS offices from Jan. 23-26, from New Mexico to New England.
An impressively "cold snow" today from the Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley.
January 24, 2026 at 4:40 PM
An impressively "cold snow" today from the Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Multiple -40s this AM in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
At least it's a dry cold. 😆
At least it's a dry cold. 😆
January 24, 2026 at 2:26 PM
Multiple -40s this AM in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
At least it's a dry cold. 😆
At least it's a dry cold. 😆