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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 20h

Here is our comprehensive, updated forecast on the coastal storm/nor'easter and all of its potential impacts, from significant coastal flooding to high winds and flooding rain.

weather.com/forecast/reg...

A Nor'easter Will Target The East Coast Beginning This Weekend | Weather.com

It may only be early October, but a nor'easter lies ahead for the East Coast. Here are the forecast details, including potential for wind, rain and coastal flooding for days.

weather.com

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 1d

I believe this would be the first widespread rain event of the season in California early next week. 👀

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 1d

At the risk of jinxing the rest of it, this is by far my favorite hurricane season in a decade.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 1d

Several NCAA and NFL games could have weather headaches this weekend due to the nor'easter and also in the West.

Football Forecast: East, West Rain Threats | Weather.com

While much of the nation's midsection should have great weather, that's not the case in parts of the East and West. Here are the games that could be impacted.

weather.com

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 3d

1 year ago today, Hurricane Milton explosively intensified into a record-tying Gulf Category 5.

On This Date: Hurricane Milton Tied Gulf Record Intensity | Weather.com

This is a reminder of how lucky we've been so far in 2025. One year ago, Milton rapidly intensified into a record-tying strong Gulf hurricane before it struck Florida two days later.

weather.com

Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 4d

Today, Caribou, Maine, will go for their third straight day with a high in the 80s.

Previously, they only had 1 such October day in records since 1939.

Probably their last 80s of 2025.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 4d

The other F5: May 29, 1953 in Ft. Rice.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 4d

One of the only two other N. Dakota F/EF5 tornadoes spawned groundbreaking research by Fujita.

On This Date: The Fargo F5 Tornado That Prompted Groundbreaking Research | Weather.com

Despite the destruction and death toll, this ended up being one of the most historically significant tornadoes for the science of meteorology.

weather.com

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 4d

There have been 5 other EF4 tornadoes so far in the U.S. this year, all during spring.

Since the EF scale was implemented in 2007, there have been an average of 5 to 6 EF4+ tornadoes in the U.S. each year.

How Rare Are EF4 Tornadoes In The US? How The 5 So Far In 2025 Stack Up. | Weather.com

A series of outbreaks in March, April and May have produced hundreds of tornadoes, with five of them rating as violent EF4s. Here's how that number stacks up compared to recent years this century.

weather.com

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 4d

You're the best, Chris. Thank you again for this. 👏

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 4d

Ah, thanks much.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 4d

If it didn't hit the train, it may never have been rated EF5.

As with anything in the EF scale, depends on if/what it hits.

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Reposted by Jonathan Erdman

SnowBrains @snowbrains.bsky.social · 4d

❄️🙌 The perfect way to start October! 😍

[PHOTOS] Up to 12" of October Snow Slams Utah, Montana, and Wyoming - SnowBrains

The first significant snow of the 2025-26 season hit Utah, Wyoming, and Montana on the weekend of October 4-5 with up to 16 inches of snow

snowbrains.com

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 4d

15 years ago today was the second day of arguably the most significant severe outbreak in Arizona history.

A swarm of tornadoes followed one day after America's costliest hailstorm.

On This Date: America's Costliest Hailstorm And Arizona Tornadoes | Weather.com

Severe weather outbreaks can happen almost anywhere in the U.S., including the Desert Southwest. Here's what happened in this two-day outbreak in 2010.

weather.com

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 4d

Hmmm....hybrid this weekend? 🤔

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 5d

Sunday, Burlington, VT tied their all-time October record high (86˚).

Today, Caribou, ME could have its second day in a row with a high in the 80s. Prior to Sunday, they had only 1 such October day since 1939.

Whew! 🥵

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 8d

On this date in weather history: The only known Southern California hurricane. Really.

On This Date: The Only Known Southern California Hurricane | Weather.com

Sounds weird, right? But a hurricane actually once happened in San Diego, and it took a recent study to discover it.

weather.com

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 9d

In the satellite era, October has typically had half the storms of September in the Atlantic Basin.

When they do develop, they tend to be much closer to Caribbean, Bahamas or U.S. #notoveryet

How Hurricane Season Usually Changes In October | Weather.com

We usually see a shift in the Atlantic hurricane season during the month of October. We may see fewer storms compared with September, however, the ones that do form can be just as impactful.

weather.com

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 9d

The Twin Cities will flirt with 90˚ highs both Friday and Saturday.

They've only had 3 days with 90˚+ highs in October since 1872.

Happy Fall. 🥵

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 9d

80 years ago today, the first Hurricane Hunter mission was lost.

On This Date: Hurricane Hunter Mission Lost In Philippines Typhoon | Weather.com

Hurricane Hunter missions provide vital data for forecasters. They can also be dangerous. Eighty years ago, still during the early days of flying planes into tropical cyclones, a Western Pacific missi...

weather.com

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Reposted by Jonathan Erdman

Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 10d

***New Paper Alert***

While the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season feels like a decade ago, here is a paper that does a deep dive into the headscratching "mid-season lull".

This line-up of co-authors is incredible, and very humbling to be part of it.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

The Remarkable 2024 North Atlantic Mid‐Season Hurricane Lull

Following an active start, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane was quiet during the climatological peak with only 1 tropical storm and 1 hurricane The lull was not anticipated by seasonal forecasting age...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 11d

With Imelda's expected sharp dog leg away from the US, this could be America's luckiest hurricane season in 10 years.

2025 Hurricane Season Tracks Show How Lucky We've Been, So Far | Weather.com

It's hard to draw up a better hurricane season than what the tracks have shown. Here are the many amazing aspects of this season-to-date track map, according to meteorologists.

weather.com

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 14d

Here we are, staring at the "I-storm" again. Hurricanes with that first letter have been notorious this century. But there's a simple explanation.

Why 'I' Hurricanes Have Been Most Notorious This Century | Weather.com

Have you noticed how many hurricanes starting with the letter "I" have been terribly destructive lately? It turns out there's a simple explanation.

weather.com

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Reposted by Jonathan Erdman

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 14d

2024 was the first year on record where the average global amount of atmospheric water vapor (precipitable water) was over 1.0" (25 mm). 🚨

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 14d

1 year ago tonight...the historic strong landfall for Florida's Big Bend with up to 16 feet of surge inundation was bad enough.

But it was far from the end of Helene's story.

On This Date: Hurricane Helene Made Landfall, But There Was More To Come | Weather.com

It ended up being one of America's deadliest and costliest hurricanes. And it started with a powerful Florida landfall one year ago tonight. Here's what happened with 2024's Hurricane Helene.

weather.com

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