Jonathan Erdman
@wxjerdman.bsky.social
Senior meteorologist @weatherchannel. M.S. Colorado State Univ.; B.S. UW-Madison; Insightful. Interesting. Impactful. Weather. Opinions are mine only, not of my employer.
⬆️ confident: A major storm off the East Coast this weekend
Less confident: The exact track
Our latest thinking 👇
Less confident: The exact track
Our latest thinking 👇
East Coast Storm This Weekend Could Become Bomb Cyclone With More Snow, Wind | Weather.com
On the heels of Winter Storm Fern, a strong storm will form off the East Coast this weekend that could bring snow and wind. Here is our latest forecast with what we know and what could happen.
weather.com
January 27, 2026 at 1:45 PM
⬆️ confident: A major storm off the East Coast this weekend
Less confident: The exact track
Our latest thinking 👇
Less confident: The exact track
Our latest thinking 👇
Yes, more record cold is possible in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, but it's the Florida cold this weekend that has my 👀.
Mid-30s lows in Miami could be their coldest since mid-Dec. 2010.
40s highs in central Florida Sunday.
Apologies for those on a "winter getaway" in the Sunshine State.
Mid-30s lows in Miami could be their coldest since mid-Dec. 2010.
40s highs in central Florida Sunday.
Apologies for those on a "winter getaway" in the Sunshine State.
January 27, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Yes, more record cold is possible in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, but it's the Florida cold this weekend that has my 👀.
Mid-30s lows in Miami could be their coldest since mid-Dec. 2010.
40s highs in central Florida Sunday.
Apologies for those on a "winter getaway" in the Sunshine State.
Mid-30s lows in Miami could be their coldest since mid-Dec. 2010.
40s highs in central Florida Sunday.
Apologies for those on a "winter getaway" in the Sunshine State.
Our recap of this historic winter storm's snow, ice, even severe weather.
Winter Storm Snow, Ice Reports Recap | Weather.com
Here's a quick recap of the notable snowfall and ice reports we've seen from this expansive winter storm.
weather.com
January 26, 2026 at 1:04 PM
Our recap of this historic winter storm's snow, ice, even severe weather.
Snow cover before (Jan. 23) and after (Jan. 26) the winter storm.
56% coverage of Lower 48 Monday AM is by far most widespread of 2025-26 season, so far.
(Credit: NOHRSC)
56% coverage of Lower 48 Monday AM is by far most widespread of 2025-26 season, so far.
(Credit: NOHRSC)
January 26, 2026 at 12:35 PM
Snow cover before (Jan. 23) and after (Jan. 26) the winter storm.
56% coverage of Lower 48 Monday AM is by far most widespread of 2025-26 season, so far.
(Credit: NOHRSC)
56% coverage of Lower 48 Monday AM is by far most widespread of 2025-26 season, so far.
(Credit: NOHRSC)
Over 700 reports of ice accumulations and or ice storm damage have been received by NWS offices from Jan. 23-26, from New Mexico to New England.
January 26, 2026 at 11:17 AM
Over 700 reports of ice accumulations and or ice storm damage have been received by NWS offices from Jan. 23-26, from New Mexico to New England.
Reposted by Jonathan Erdman
Got down to -24F at my backyard weather station in SE Michigan this morning, my 2nd-coldest lifetime temperature, behind -29 in Feb 2015. Here I am seeing if 70F water will freeze before hitting the ground at -24. Nope. Flint sank to at least -21, close to the all-time -25 record.
January 24, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Got down to -24F at my backyard weather station in SE Michigan this morning, my 2nd-coldest lifetime temperature, behind -29 in Feb 2015. Here I am seeing if 70F water will freeze before hitting the ground at -24. Nope. Flint sank to at least -21, close to the all-time -25 record.
An impressively "cold snow" today from the Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley.
January 24, 2026 at 4:40 PM
An impressively "cold snow" today from the Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Multiple -40s this AM in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
At least it's a dry cold. 😆
At least it's a dry cold. 😆
January 24, 2026 at 2:26 PM
Multiple -40s this AM in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
At least it's a dry cold. 😆
At least it's a dry cold. 😆
Fun on a subzero day in the Midwest.
January 23, 2026 at 4:52 PM
Fun on a subzero day in the Midwest.
The many ways this winter storm may go down in the history books...
How Winter Storm Fern Could Be Historic | Weather.com
Here are the many aspects of this massive winter storm that could write it firmly into the weather history books.
weather.com
January 23, 2026 at 3:52 PM
The many ways this winter storm may go down in the history books...
Usually either spring or fall is the peak of "everything but the kitchen sink" storm season.🚰
Sunday could add "isolated severe" to the mix.
Sunday could add "isolated severe" to the mix.
January 23, 2026 at 12:46 PM
Usually either spring or fall is the peak of "everything but the kitchen sink" storm season.🚰
Sunday could add "isolated severe" to the mix.
Sunday could add "isolated severe" to the mix.
What do ice accumulations mean for impacts? Here are some guidelines 👇
What Ice Storm Accumulations Mean | Weather.com
See the damage and impacts caused by ice storms and how to keep your family safe.
weather.com
January 23, 2026 at 11:38 AM
What do ice accumulations mean for impacts? Here are some guidelines 👇
Our latest, complete briefing on the historic winter storm, kicking off later today, lasting through Monday, with lingering cold impacts. 👇
Winter Storm With 'Catastrophic' South Ice, Midwest, Northeast Heavy Snow | Weather.com
This historic storm will spread destructive ice and heavy snow over 34 states through Monday in the South, Midwest and Northeast, including a potential nor’easter. Here is the very latest forecast.
weather.com
January 23, 2026 at 11:36 AM
Our latest, complete briefing on the historic winter storm, kicking off later today, lasting through Monday, with lingering cold impacts. 👇
A -60˚F wind chill along Minnesota's North Shore this morning.
Maybe even too cold for "Grumpy Old Men" 🥶
Maybe even too cold for "Grumpy Old Men" 🥶
January 23, 2026 at 11:28 AM
A -60˚F wind chill along Minnesota's North Shore this morning.
Maybe even too cold for "Grumpy Old Men" 🥶
Maybe even too cold for "Grumpy Old Men" 🥶
Suffice to say this seasonal snowfall map will look much different by Sunday and Monday.
January 22, 2026 at 3:59 PM
Suffice to say this seasonal snowfall map will look much different by Sunday and Monday.
New York's Tug Hill Plateau doing it's thing:
- Drifts up to 6 feet reported yesterday AM.
- Another 2-3 feet through Friday evening
- Then comes the winter storm.
#uncle
- Drifts up to 6 feet reported yesterday AM.
- Another 2-3 feet through Friday evening
- Then comes the winter storm.
#uncle
January 22, 2026 at 1:40 PM
New York's Tug Hill Plateau doing it's thing:
- Drifts up to 6 feet reported yesterday AM.
- Another 2-3 feet through Friday evening
- Then comes the winter storm.
#uncle
- Drifts up to 6 feet reported yesterday AM.
- Another 2-3 feet through Friday evening
- Then comes the winter storm.
#uncle
Imagine if the Patriots were the #1 seed, instead of the Broncos for Sunday's AFC Championship. 😆
January 22, 2026 at 1:15 PM
Imagine if the Patriots were the #1 seed, instead of the Broncos for Sunday's AFC Championship. 😆
We have enough in front of us already with this latest winter storm.
But ensemble models are hinting at another South, possibly East wintry threat late next week-next weekend.
Cold air in place + upper trough = 🍿🤔
But ensemble models are hinting at another South, possibly East wintry threat late next week-next weekend.
Cold air in place + upper trough = 🍿🤔
January 22, 2026 at 12:34 PM
We have enough in front of us already with this latest winter storm.
But ensemble models are hinting at another South, possibly East wintry threat late next week-next weekend.
Cold air in place + upper trough = 🍿🤔
But ensemble models are hinting at another South, possibly East wintry threat late next week-next weekend.
Cold air in place + upper trough = 🍿🤔
With the usual "forecast may change" caveat, here's the last time each city had a 1-foot-plus snowstorm:
- OKC: 12/24/2009 (only 3 on record)
- Tulsa: 1/31 - 2/1/2011 (only 2 on record)
- Louisville: 2/4-5/1988 (only 7 on record)
- Philly: 1/22-23/2016
- NYC: 1/31 - 2/1/2021
- OKC: 12/24/2009 (only 3 on record)
- Tulsa: 1/31 - 2/1/2011 (only 2 on record)
- Louisville: 2/4-5/1988 (only 7 on record)
- Philly: 1/22-23/2016
- NYC: 1/31 - 2/1/2021
January 22, 2026 at 12:21 PM
With the usual "forecast may change" caveat, here's the last time each city had a 1-foot-plus snowstorm:
- OKC: 12/24/2009 (only 3 on record)
- Tulsa: 1/31 - 2/1/2011 (only 2 on record)
- Louisville: 2/4-5/1988 (only 7 on record)
- Philly: 1/22-23/2016
- NYC: 1/31 - 2/1/2021
- OKC: 12/24/2009 (only 3 on record)
- Tulsa: 1/31 - 2/1/2011 (only 2 on record)
- Louisville: 2/4-5/1988 (only 7 on record)
- Philly: 1/22-23/2016
- NYC: 1/31 - 2/1/2021
Reposted by Jonathan Erdman
There’s a difference between ice freezing on flat surfaces, ice accumulating on trees and power lines and other things in the air that we don’t want to come down, and ice pellets falling from the sky. Pass it on.
Freezing rain also doesn’t accumulate on branches and power lines to the values seen in the models.
It accumulates at roughly 39% the value of flat ice, so for quick math divide all of those by 3.
Yes: major ice storm coming, 0.5-1” ice, power outages.
No: Widespread 2-3” of ice.
It accumulates at roughly 39% the value of flat ice, so for quick math divide all of those by 3.
Yes: major ice storm coming, 0.5-1” ice, power outages.
No: Widespread 2-3” of ice.
This would knock out power for tens of millions of people, for week*s*.
This is not a joke or exaggeration.
This is not a joke or exaggeration.
January 22, 2026 at 12:54 AM
There’s a difference between ice freezing on flat surfaces, ice accumulating on trees and power lines and other things in the air that we don’t want to come down, and ice pellets falling from the sky. Pass it on.
Among the uncertainties with the winter storm:
- Rain/ice line in Tenn. Valley. EPS ensemble mean is trending warmer.
- How heavy, long-lasting will the Northeast snow be into Monday? Individual EPS members (& others) show the variability.
(Gfx kudos: Tropical Tidbits, Tomer Burg)
- Rain/ice line in Tenn. Valley. EPS ensemble mean is trending warmer.
- How heavy, long-lasting will the Northeast snow be into Monday? Individual EPS members (& others) show the variability.
(Gfx kudos: Tropical Tidbits, Tomer Burg)
January 21, 2026 at 9:46 AM
Among the uncertainties with the winter storm:
- Rain/ice line in Tenn. Valley. EPS ensemble mean is trending warmer.
- How heavy, long-lasting will the Northeast snow be into Monday? Individual EPS members (& others) show the variability.
(Gfx kudos: Tropical Tidbits, Tomer Burg)
- Rain/ice line in Tenn. Valley. EPS ensemble mean is trending warmer.
- How heavy, long-lasting will the Northeast snow be into Monday? Individual EPS members (& others) show the variability.
(Gfx kudos: Tropical Tidbits, Tomer Burg)
Purely as a meteorologist, I wish the Eagles were hosting the NFC Championship game Sunday. 😆
January 20, 2026 at 2:07 PM
Purely as a meteorologist, I wish the Eagles were hosting the NFC Championship game Sunday. 😆
What we know: Major winter storm with snow and ice Friday through at least Sunday.
Still unknown: Key "who/what/where" details.
Our latest thinking 👇
Still unknown: Key "who/what/where" details.
Our latest thinking 👇
Major Winter Storm Targets South and East With Ice, Snow | Weather.com
A winter storm is expected across the South beginning Friday and East this weekend. There is a lot of wiggle room here, but check back with us frequently to see if your area could be impacted.
weather.com
January 20, 2026 at 1:26 PM
What we know: Major winter storm with snow and ice Friday through at least Sunday.
Still unknown: Key "who/what/where" details.
Our latest thinking 👇
Still unknown: Key "who/what/where" details.
Our latest thinking 👇
One year ago today, an historic Gulf Coast snowstorm kicked off.
On This Date: Record-Smashing Gulf Coast Snowstorm | Weather.com
It was easily the weirdest weather we saw in the U.S. in 2025. Here are all the incredible details behind last January's Winter Storm Enzo in the Deep South.
weather.com
January 20, 2026 at 1:23 PM
One year ago today, an historic Gulf Coast snowstorm kicked off.
60 years ago today, a world record 24-hour rainfall happened on a remote island.
More than a year's worth of Miami rain.
More than a year's worth of Miami rain.
On This Date: A World Record 24-Hour Rainfall | Weather.com
A tiny island in the Indian Ocean holds many of the world's rainfall records, including one set 60 years ago. Here's the astounding stats and why this island is so drenched.
weather.com
January 8, 2026 at 1:02 PM
60 years ago today, a world record 24-hour rainfall happened on a remote island.
More than a year's worth of Miami rain.
More than a year's worth of Miami rain.