Dr. Jeff Masters
@drjeffmasters.bsky.social
Extreme weather and climate change expert writing for Yale Climate Connections. Co-founder, Weather Underground; former hurricane hunter.
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
FEMA decision time for disaster declarations has more that doubled as of 2025.
Previously 1 in 6 applications denied, now 1 in 4.
Incredible new interactive dashboard from @andrewrumbach.bsky.social
andrewrumbach.com/disaster-lab
Previously 1 in 6 applications denied, now 1 in 4.
Incredible new interactive dashboard from @andrewrumbach.bsky.social
andrewrumbach.com/disaster-lab
February 12, 2026 at 5:28 PM
FEMA decision time for disaster declarations has more that doubled as of 2025.
Previously 1 in 6 applications denied, now 1 in 4.
Incredible new interactive dashboard from @andrewrumbach.bsky.social
andrewrumbach.com/disaster-lab
Previously 1 in 6 applications denied, now 1 in 4.
Incredible new interactive dashboard from @andrewrumbach.bsky.social
andrewrumbach.com/disaster-lab
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Between its mild start and its frigid ending, the eastern U.S. is one of the few areas on Earth where temperatures *didn't* end up above average for January 2026. Almost everywhere else, the ever-warming band played on. From @drjeffmasters.bsky.social:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/desp...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/desp...
Despite Eastern U.S. cold, January 2026 was one of the world's warmest Januaries on record » Yale Climate Connections
Near-record warmth in the Western U.S. gave the contiguous U.S. an above-average temperature for the month.
yaleclimateconnections.org
February 12, 2026 at 2:14 AM
Between its mild start and its frigid ending, the eastern U.S. is one of the few areas on Earth where temperatures *didn't* end up above average for January 2026. Almost everywhere else, the ever-warming band played on. From @drjeffmasters.bsky.social:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/desp...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/desp...
Hurricanes are getting stronger: This study found from 1992-2021, Cat 1+ hurricanes globally intensified by 1.74 m/s (3.9 mph) over the 30-year period, and that a cold bias in IPCC climate models "probably contributes to an underestimate in projections of major hurricane frequency.”
Weak self-induced cooling of tropical cyclones amid fast sea surface warming - Nature Geoscience
Tropical cyclones cool the ocean surface less than previously thought, indicating that current projections may underestimate their future intensity and frequency, according to an analysis of global se...
www.nature.com
February 11, 2026 at 5:44 PM
Hurricanes are getting stronger: This study found from 1992-2021, Cat 1+ hurricanes globally intensified by 1.74 m/s (3.9 mph) over the 30-year period, and that a cold bias in IPCC climate models "probably contributes to an underestimate in projections of major hurricane frequency.”
Nice tool! I like how they give a 1-year, 15-year, and 30-year probability of a wildfire burning your property. There's just a 0.28% chance in 1 year for the sample property I show below, but a 7.56% chance over 30 years.
February 10, 2026 at 5:07 PM
Nice tool! I like how they give a 1-year, 15-year, and 30-year probability of a wildfire burning your property. There's just a 0.28% chance in 1 year for the sample property I show below, but a 7.56% chance over 30 years.
Mitigating the climate crisis by stopping the burning of fossil fuels has a massive co-benefit we should talk about all the time: a >3% of GDP savings through less air pollution.
This makes the conservative economic value of clean air $1T annually in the U.S.
And then you would have to add the damage from other sources such as manufacturing and use of chemicals such as aerosols, etc.
#naturalsecurity
And then you would have to add the damage from other sources such as manufacturing and use of chemicals such as aerosols, etc.
#naturalsecurity
Air pollution from burning fossil fuels causes 100,000 to 200,000 avoidable American deaths per year. At the EPA's statistical value of life of $10 million, these deaths cost America $1 to $2 trillion per year, every year. These costs far outweigh the costs of transitioning off of fossil fuels.
February 9, 2026 at 11:39 PM
Mitigating the climate crisis by stopping the burning of fossil fuels has a massive co-benefit we should talk about all the time: a >3% of GDP savings through less air pollution.
Very little rain coming in the next 2 weeks. “With less than 4” of rain since November, the South Florida Water Management District said water levels in the Biscayne Aquifer have fallen dramatically. In some places, levels are the lowest in more than a decade”. www.miamiherald.com/news/local/e...
February 9, 2026 at 2:55 PM
Very little rain coming in the next 2 weeks. “With less than 4” of rain since November, the South Florida Water Management District said water levels in the Biscayne Aquifer have fallen dramatically. In some places, levels are the lowest in more than a decade”. www.miamiherald.com/news/local/e...
Wow, human made structures and cliff erosion helped Southern California beaches expand by approximately 10% from 1984-2024, “even as dams and urban development were expected to starve coastlines of sediment and accelerate erosion.”
phys.org/news/2026-02...
phys.org/news/2026-02...
Widening beaches make California 500 acres bigger than it was 40 years ago
Southern California's beaches have grown more than 500 acres over the past four decades despite being one of the most heavily urbanized and dammed coastal regions in the world, according to a new stud...
phys.org
February 7, 2026 at 3:31 PM
Wow, human made structures and cliff erosion helped Southern California beaches expand by approximately 10% from 1984-2024, “even as dams and urban development were expected to starve coastlines of sediment and accelerate erosion.”
phys.org/news/2026-02...
phys.org/news/2026-02...
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
I love writing about geeky science that has real-world implications. In this case, a new NOAA index does a more solid job of classifying El Niño and La Niña—and that helps explain some recent puzzling events. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
A new and better way to keep tabs on El Niño and La Niña » Yale Climate Connections
Developed in response to a warming world, NOAA’s revised scale more precisely identifies which episodes are likely to have the biggest impacts.
yaleclimateconnections.org
February 5, 2026 at 6:06 PM
I love writing about geeky science that has real-world implications. In this case, a new NOAA index does a more solid job of classifying El Niño and La Niña—and that helps explain some recent puzzling events. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
🚨 17,000 strokes. That’s the annual toll of wildfire 🔥 smoke in the US according to new data. Smoke isn’t just a "breathing" issue; it’s a heart and brain issue. We need climate action to protect our families from the source. 🛑🔥 #ClimateHealth #WildfireSmoke #ActOnClimate
eos.org/articles/wil...
eos.org/articles/wil...
Wildfire Smoke Linked to 17,000 Strokes Annually in the United States - Eos
A study of 25 million Medicare participants adds to a body of evidence suggesting that prolonged exposure to wildfire smoke is more harmful to human health than other forms of air pollution.
eos.org
February 1, 2026 at 4:04 PM
🚨 17,000 strokes. That’s the annual toll of wildfire 🔥 smoke in the US according to new data. Smoke isn’t just a "breathing" issue; it’s a heart and brain issue. We need climate action to protect our families from the source. 🛑🔥 #ClimateHealth #WildfireSmoke #ActOnClimate
eos.org/articles/wil...
eos.org/articles/wil...
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
This was one of my favorite #AGU25 talks this year
New paper looks into "The debt burden of tropical cyclones and climate change"
=> across all TC-exposed countries, debt-to-GDP ratios are on average 30% higher due to the cumulative effects of TCs since 1990, while GDP levels are on average 10% lower
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
=> across all TC-exposed countries, debt-to-GDP ratios are on average 30% higher due to the cumulative effects of TCs since 1990, while GDP levels are on average 10% lower
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
The debt burden of tropical cyclones and climate change
eartharxiv.org
February 2, 2026 at 11:37 AM
This was one of my favorite #AGU25 talks this year
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
The dissolution of NCAR remains a very real possibility, as discussed at a town-hall meeting this week at #AMS2026. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/the-...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/the-...
The future of NCAR remains highly uncertain » Yale Climate Connections
Members of the American Meteorological Society were briefed Wednesday about ongoing developments on the future of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which the White House has said it will b...
yaleclimateconnections.org
January 30, 2026 at 6:48 PM
The dissolution of NCAR remains a very real possibility, as discussed at a town-hall meeting this week at #AMS2026. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/the-...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/the-...
“We think of climate impacts as huge, monstrous things — giant dinosaur weather-beasts rampaging across our cities. But it turns out we should be at least as worried about the plague of small strains spreading through our lives, eating away at systems functionality like a horde of gnawing rodents.”
NEW: When it comes to climate foresight, the small stuff really adds up.
alexsteffen.substack.com/p/things-fal...
alexsteffen.substack.com/p/things-fal...
Things fall apart; the maintenance schedule cannot hold.
Climate foresight at a small scale.
alexsteffen.substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 11:03 PM
“We think of climate impacts as huge, monstrous things — giant dinosaur weather-beasts rampaging across our cities. But it turns out we should be at least as worried about the plague of small strains spreading through our lives, eating away at systems functionality like a horde of gnawing rodents.”
"Major" flooding predicted for coastal North Carolina and Virginia during the Sunday morning high tide. Duck, NC, is predicted hit 7.2', 3rd-highest water level since 1999:
1. 7.82 ft on 09-18-2003
2. 7.55 ft on 11-22-2006
3. 7.20 ft on 09-06-2019
4. 7.15 ft on 01-03-2022
5. 7.04 ft on 08-21-2025
1. 7.82 ft on 09-18-2003
2. 7.55 ft on 11-22-2006
3. 7.20 ft on 09-06-2019
4. 7.15 ft on 01-03-2022
5. 7.04 ft on 08-21-2025
January 29, 2026 at 6:47 PM
"Major" flooding predicted for coastal North Carolina and Virginia during the Sunday morning high tide. Duck, NC, is predicted hit 7.2', 3rd-highest water level since 1999:
1. 7.82 ft on 09-18-2003
2. 7.55 ft on 11-22-2006
3. 7.20 ft on 09-06-2019
4. 7.15 ft on 01-03-2022
5. 7.04 ft on 08-21-2025
1. 7.82 ft on 09-18-2003
2. 7.55 ft on 11-22-2006
3. 7.20 ft on 09-06-2019
4. 7.15 ft on 01-03-2022
5. 7.04 ft on 08-21-2025
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
This winter blast is far from over. Washington, DC, is on track for its longest stretch below 32F in almost 40 years. Nearly 400,000 U.S. customers are without power. And snow could envelop NC's Outer Banks this weekend. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/this...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/this...
This week’s Arctic onslaught and how it compares to blasts from the past » Yale Climate Connections
Winter weather has to push uphill in our warming climate, but this event could set records for total damage and in some areas for prolonged cold.
yaleclimateconnections.org
January 28, 2026 at 3:32 PM
This winter blast is far from over. Washington, DC, is on track for its longest stretch below 32F in almost 40 years. Nearly 400,000 U.S. customers are without power. And snow could envelop NC's Outer Banks this weekend. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/this...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/this...
Damage is estimated at $1.2 billion, joining the U.S. ice storm/arctic onslaught over the past week as the first billion-dollar disasters of 2026. There were 55 billion-dollar weather disasters globally last year.
‘Situation is dire’ for Sicily town teetering on cliff edge after landslide
1,500 people evacuated from Niscemi after battering by Cyclone Harry triggers 4km-long chasm in hillside
www.theguardian.com
January 28, 2026 at 3:35 AM
Damage is estimated at $1.2 billion, joining the U.S. ice storm/arctic onslaught over the past week as the first billion-dollar disasters of 2026. There were 55 billion-dollar weather disasters globally last year.
Serious stuff: “By 2100, global crop yields would be reduced by 11% if emissions rapidly plummet to net zero -- and by 24% if emissions continue to increased unchecked. In the shorter term, by 2050 climate change will decrease global crop yields by 8 percent”, regardless of scenario.
NEW RESEARCH: Climate change on track to slash global crop yields by 24% before 2100.
Like, within the lifespan of your kids.
Also: adaptation and new farmland can’t offset this loss. Sorry, AI can’t fix this.
agupdate.com/agriview/mar...
Like, within the lifespan of your kids.
Also: adaptation and new farmland can’t offset this loss. Sorry, AI can’t fix this.
agupdate.com/agriview/mar...
Climate change will devastate crop yields
A sweeping new analysis finds that warming global temperatures will dampen the world’s capacity to produce food from most staple crops, even after accounting for economic development and adaptation by
agupdate.com
January 28, 2026 at 12:46 AM
Serious stuff: “By 2100, global crop yields would be reduced by 11% if emissions rapidly plummet to net zero -- and by 24% if emissions continue to increased unchecked. In the shorter term, by 2050 climate change will decrease global crop yields by 8 percent”, regardless of scenario.
14% of all U.S. government STEM Ph.D.s have left the workforce since Dec. 2024, a huge brain drain. New hires replaced only about 9% of the departures (at 14 of the agencies studied).
January 27, 2026 at 3:17 PM
14% of all U.S. government STEM Ph.D.s have left the workforce since Dec. 2024, a huge brain drain. New hires replaced only about 9% of the departures (at 14 of the agencies studied).
I summarized the biggest weather disasters of 2025 using last week's summaries from Gallagher Re and Aon. The costliest: $65 billion in damage from the L.A. wildfires. The deadliest: 24,000+ killed in the summer heatwave in Europe.
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/eart...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/eart...
Earth was hit by 55 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2025 » Yale Climate Connections
The world endured its costliest wildfire on record in 2025, its sixth-deadliest heat wave, and four floods or storms that caused at least 1,000 deaths.
yaleclimateconnections.org
January 26, 2026 at 3:15 PM
I summarized the biggest weather disasters of 2025 using last week's summaries from Gallagher Re and Aon. The costliest: $65 billion in damage from the L.A. wildfires. The deadliest: 24,000+ killed in the summer heatwave in Europe.
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/eart...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/eart...
Got down to -24F at my backyard weather station in SE Michigan this morning, my 2nd-coldest lifetime temperature, behind -29 in Feb 2015. Here I am seeing if 70F water will freeze before hitting the ground at -24. Nope. Flint sank to at least -21, close to the all-time -25 record.
January 24, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Got down to -24F at my backyard weather station in SE Michigan this morning, my 2nd-coldest lifetime temperature, behind -29 in Feb 2015. Here I am seeing if 70F water will freeze before hitting the ground at -24. Nope. Flint sank to at least -21, close to the all-time -25 record.
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
A week-plus in DC below freezing? Perhaps, as a prolonged winter storm moves into the central and eastern U.S. this weekend. Heavy snows will stretch from the Ohio Valley to New England, with dangerous ice from TX to NC.
@climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/wint...
@climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/wint...
Winter 2025-26 (finally) hits the U.S. with a vengeance » Yale Climate Connections
The armada of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and bitter cold may get reinforcements next week.
yaleclimateconnections.org
January 23, 2026 at 8:47 PM
A week-plus in DC below freezing? Perhaps, as a prolonged winter storm moves into the central and eastern U.S. this weekend. Heavy snows will stretch from the Ohio Valley to New England, with dangerous ice from TX to NC.
@climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/wint...
@climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/wint...
The “Reinvesting in Shoreline Economies and Ecosystems Act would create a dedicated revenue stream to fund coastal resiliency projects and lessen the impacts of storm surges and rising sea levels. Channeling money from offshore energy development to states to help them defray the costs makes sense.”
I appreciate @whitehouse.senate.gov's to build bipartisan support for federal disaster preparedness, but it's really problematic that not one Republican is willing to acknowledge the how fossil fuel burning caused the warmer temperatures which have created existential risk for many communities.
Opinion | The Hidden Risk to the Housing Market
www.nytimes.com
January 23, 2026 at 3:43 PM
The “Reinvesting in Shoreline Economies and Ecosystems Act would create a dedicated revenue stream to fund coastal resiliency projects and lessen the impacts of storm surges and rising sea levels. Channeling money from offshore energy development to states to help them defray the costs makes sense.”
Great post by @bhensonweather.bsky.social on how climate warming threatens the future of the winter Olympic Games.
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/to-s...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/to-s...
To survive warming winters, the Olympics will need to change » Yale Climate Connections
Winter weather is now less dependable in many cities that have historically hosted the games.
yaleclimateconnections.org
January 22, 2026 at 8:18 PM
Great post by @bhensonweather.bsky.social on how climate warming threatens the future of the winter Olympic Games.
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/to-s...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/to-s...
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
This is the most astonishing graph of what the Trump regime has done to US science. They have destroyed the federal science workforce across the board. The negative impacts on Americans will be felt for generations, and the US might never be the same again.
www.nature.com/immersive/d4...
www.nature.com/immersive/d4...
January 20, 2026 at 10:53 PM
This is the most astonishing graph of what the Trump regime has done to US science. They have destroyed the federal science workforce across the board. The negative impacts on Americans will be felt for generations, and the US might never be the same again.
www.nature.com/immersive/d4...
www.nature.com/immersive/d4...
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
The best set of tools for flood is from @drjeffmasters.bsky.social. The fact that there are 30 is sort of the problem though.
I spent a long time researching this one! A long🧵on some of the 30+ tools to evaluate flood risk in the U.S. that I cover in my recent post. 1/21
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/07/30-great-tools-to-determine-your-flood-risk-in-the-u-s/
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/07/30-great-tools-to-determine-your-flood-risk-in-the-u-s/
30 great tools to determine your flood risk in the U.S. »...
The 30 tools include five new risk-rating agencies, FEMA ...
yaleclimateconnections.org
January 19, 2026 at 3:56 PM
The best set of tools for flood is from @drjeffmasters.bsky.social. The fact that there are 30 is sort of the problem though.
Makes sense: “Until now, the ocean was largely overlooked in the standard accounting of the social cost of carbon even though the degradation of coral reef ecosystems, economic losses from fisheries impacts and damage to coastal infrastructure are well documented and adversely impact millions.”
Damage to the ocean nearly doubles economic cost of climate change, new study finds
Scientists have factored damage to the ocean to the social cost of carbon for the first time -- finding it nearly doubles the economic impact from climate change.
abcnews.go.com
January 15, 2026 at 11:56 PM
Makes sense: “Until now, the ocean was largely overlooked in the standard accounting of the social cost of carbon even though the degradation of coral reef ecosystems, economic losses from fisheries impacts and damage to coastal infrastructure are well documented and adversely impact millions.”