Dr. Jeff Masters
@drjeffmasters.bsky.social
Extreme weather and climate change expert writing for Yale Climate Connections. Co-founder, Weather Underground; former hurricane hunter.
Another great read from @scrawford.bsky.social: "We can’t rely on the insurance industry to be the only risk-signaler for homes. These companies may be tracking hurricanes and wildfires, and translating those risks into higher premiums, but they are likely to exclude saltwater intrusion coverage."
New research shows climate risk is already hitting insurance and home values. And that’s only part of the story. Some serious hazards, like saltwater intrusion, often aren’t covered at all -- and aren’t yet priced into housing markets. Column today: susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/new-data-s...
New data shows insurance costs rising and home values sinking as climate risks grow
Insurance markets are flashing warnings — even as some major climate risks remain unmeasured and unaccounted for
susanpcrawford.substack.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Another great read from @scrawford.bsky.social: "We can’t rely on the insurance industry to be the only risk-signaler for homes. These companies may be tracking hurricanes and wildfires, and translating those risks into higher premiums, but they are likely to exclude saltwater intrusion coverage."
Drought is climate change's greatest threat. An attribution study by www.worldweatherattribution.org found this year's Iran drought was a 1-in-10-year event; this would have been a 1-in-50 to 1-in-100-year event without human-caused climate change. President of Iran says they will move the capital.
November 24, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Drought is climate change's greatest threat. An attribution study by www.worldweatherattribution.org found this year's Iran drought was a 1-in-10-year event; this would have been a 1-in-50 to 1-in-100-year event without human-caused climate change. President of Iran says they will move the capital.
My post today is a reminder that we need to spend a ton of money on adaptation for our new climate, based on a report issued in March on U.S. infrastructure needs. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/u-s-...
U.S. dams, levees, stormwater, and wastewater systems get D to D+ grades, need almost $1 trillion in upgrades » Yale Climate Connections
Climate change is increasingly stressing dams, levees, wastewater, and stormwater systems through heavier precipitation events.
yaleclimateconnections.org
November 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
My post today is a reminder that we need to spend a ton of money on adaptation for our new climate, based on a report issued in March on U.S. infrastructure needs. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/u-s-...
Interesting. Synthetic hurricane modeling showing higher % of named storms hitting the U.S. as hurricanes the past 22 years vs. prior 22 years. "One theory: warming seas are making storms stay longer at hurricane strength. This may not necessarily be evident from the historical data that we have."
A bit of discussion whether the percentage of storms making landfall as hurricanes is static or not using counterfactual analysis. Thanks to a) modelling experts Reask and b) AI without which I wouldn't be able to produce pretty-looking graphs like this one.
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
November 20, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Interesting. Synthetic hurricane modeling showing higher % of named storms hitting the U.S. as hurricanes the past 22 years vs. prior 22 years. "One theory: warming seas are making storms stay longer at hurricane strength. This may not necessarily be evident from the historical data that we have."
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
During the core months of hurricane season (Aug-Sep-Oct), fairly persistent anomalous "troughiness" was centered over the southeast U.S., which resulted in anomalous counter-clockwise steering flow around it.
This helps explain why hurricanes generally turned northward well before reaching the U.S.
This helps explain why hurricanes generally turned northward well before reaching the U.S.
November 18, 2025 at 8:36 PM
During the core months of hurricane season (Aug-Sep-Oct), fairly persistent anomalous "troughiness" was centered over the southeast U.S., which resulted in anomalous counter-clockwise steering flow around it.
This helps explain why hurricanes generally turned northward well before reaching the U.S.
This helps explain why hurricanes generally turned northward well before reaching the U.S.
Expect this list to grow: Three of the top 5 deadliest heat waves in world history have been in Europe in the past five years. "Mitigating further global warming can reduce heat mortality, but mass mortality events remain plausible at near-future temperatures despite current adaptations to heat."
November 18, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Expect this list to grow: Three of the top 5 deadliest heat waves in world history have been in Europe in the past five years. "Mitigating further global warming can reduce heat mortality, but mass mortality events remain plausible at near-future temperatures despite current adaptations to heat."
Concerning: for a high emissions scenario, the model found a 37% increase in daily extreme precipitation over land by 2100. “Much of the increase was driven by shifts in wind patterns that created chains of severe thunderstorms hundreds of kilometers long that traditional models fail to capture.”
My latest for @science.org: A remarkable set of high-resolution climate model runs, computed over 900 (!) days of supercomputing time, are revealing how warming-induced changes to Earth's wind patterns due can prime huge spikes in extreme rainfall.
But the MESACLIP runs also do much more than that.
But the MESACLIP runs also do much more than that.
High-resolution climate model forecasts a wet, turbulent future
With details as fine as short-term weather forecasts, model achieves newfound accuracy
www.science.org
November 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Concerning: for a high emissions scenario, the model found a 37% increase in daily extreme precipitation over land by 2100. “Much of the increase was driven by shifts in wind patterns that created chains of severe thunderstorms hundreds of kilometers long that traditional models fail to capture.”
We need to do better in the Pyrocene age: At 176 California homes, "most had little compulsory or recommended mitigations completed. Participants struggled with hazards that required frequent maintenance, including woodpiles, propane tanks, trees and shrubs, roof and gutter and deck debris."
High fire hazard Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) residences in California lack voluntary and mandated wildfire risk mitigation compliance in Home Ignition Zones
Wildfire structure losses are increasing globally and particularly in California, USA. Losses can be mitigated in part by changes to the Home Ignition…
www.sciencedirect.com
November 17, 2025 at 4:58 PM
We need to do better in the Pyrocene age: At 176 California homes, "most had little compulsory or recommended mitigations completed. Participants struggled with hazards that required frequent maintenance, including woodpiles, propane tanks, trees and shrubs, roof and gutter and deck debris."
Sunrise this morning on the Pigeon River in northern Lower Michigan. Enjoyed a 3-day nature/meditation/yoga retreat with no news/social media. Greatly restorative!
November 17, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Sunrise this morning on the Pigeon River in northern Lower Michigan. Enjoyed a 3-day nature/meditation/yoga retreat with no news/social media. Greatly restorative!
I did a 45-minute talk on hurricanes and climate change with Harvard’s Dr. Muhammad Ittefaq, Ph.D. The “lost hope” part is about our collective inability in the U.S. to do intelligent managed retreat from vulnerable coasts in a era of rising seas and stronger storms. youtu.be/v89AAsMVSdw?...
Saffir-Simpson Scale is Insufficient I Climate Change Makes Hurricanes More Extreme I Category 6
YouTube video by Science Talk
youtu.be
November 14, 2025 at 11:24 PM
I did a 45-minute talk on hurricanes and climate change with Harvard’s Dr. Muhammad Ittefaq, Ph.D. The “lost hope” part is about our collective inability in the U.S. to do intelligent managed retreat from vulnerable coasts in a era of rising seas and stronger storms. youtu.be/v89AAsMVSdw?...
In my latest post, yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/the-..., I discuss how the number of major Atlantic hurricanes has been increasing in recent decades, but landfalling mainland U.S. major hurricanes have no long-term trend — though landfalling major hurricanes outside the U.S. do.
November 12, 2025 at 10:42 PM
In my latest post, yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/the-..., I discuss how the number of major Atlantic hurricanes has been increasing in recent decades, but landfalling mainland U.S. major hurricanes have no long-term trend — though landfalling major hurricanes outside the U.S. do.
My latest post has a table of the most expensive hurricanes to affect each nation/territory/island in the Atlantic relative to GDP. Over 30 nations have suffered a storm costing more than 5% of GDP, and 13 have seen losses of at least 100% of GDP. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/the-...
November 12, 2025 at 10:35 PM
My latest post has a table of the most expensive hurricanes to affect each nation/territory/island in the Atlantic relative to GDP. Over 30 nations have suffered a storm costing more than 5% of GDP, and 13 have seen losses of at least 100% of GDP. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/the-...
Much needed: "Solar power is a way for Jamaica and other nations in one of the world’s most hurricane-prone regions to become more resilient to ever-intensifying storms.
Rooftop solar has grown significantly in Jamaica; renewable energy made up about 10% of Jamaica’s power generation in 2023."
Rooftop solar has grown significantly in Jamaica; renewable energy made up about 10% of Jamaica’s power generation in 2023."
After Jamaica’s Disastrous Storm, Solar Power Is a Bright Spot
www.nytimes.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Much needed: "Solar power is a way for Jamaica and other nations in one of the world’s most hurricane-prone regions to become more resilient to ever-intensifying storms.
Rooftop solar has grown significantly in Jamaica; renewable energy made up about 10% of Jamaica’s power generation in 2023."
Rooftop solar has grown significantly in Jamaica; renewable energy made up about 10% of Jamaica’s power generation in 2023."
Worth a try: A Jan. 1 law would charge a $50-100 “WUI fee for high risk homes, determined by a risk map provided by the state, and if homeowners don’t pay the fee, a lien could be placed on their property or home, which could result in forfeiture or sale of their property.”
Utah Declares War On Fuels In The Wildland Urban Interface, Conscipting Homeowners In The Fight.
Property liens could be issued for homes that don't comply.
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Worth a try: A Jan. 1 law would charge a $50-100 “WUI fee for high risk homes, determined by a risk map provided by the state, and if homeowners don’t pay the fee, a lien could be placed on their property or home, which could result in forfeiture or sale of their property.”
Fung-wong the 4th major landfalling typhoon of 2025:
Danas (Cat 3, Taiwan)
Ragasa (Cat 5, Panuitan Island, Philippines)
Kalmaegi (Cat 3, Vietnam)
Fung-wong (Cat 3, Philippines)
No long-term trend since 1946, but the 2004-2025 period has seen a lot (4.2/y) vs. the previous 22-year period (2.6/y).
Danas (Cat 3, Taiwan)
Ragasa (Cat 5, Panuitan Island, Philippines)
Kalmaegi (Cat 3, Vietnam)
Fung-wong (Cat 3, Philippines)
No long-term trend since 1946, but the 2004-2025 period has seen a lot (4.2/y) vs. the previous 22-year period (2.6/y).
November 10, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Fung-wong the 4th major landfalling typhoon of 2025:
Danas (Cat 3, Taiwan)
Ragasa (Cat 5, Panuitan Island, Philippines)
Kalmaegi (Cat 3, Vietnam)
Fung-wong (Cat 3, Philippines)
No long-term trend since 1946, but the 2004-2025 period has seen a lot (4.2/y) vs. the previous 22-year period (2.6/y).
Danas (Cat 3, Taiwan)
Ragasa (Cat 5, Panuitan Island, Philippines)
Kalmaegi (Cat 3, Vietnam)
Fung-wong (Cat 3, Philippines)
No long-term trend since 1946, but the 2004-2025 period has seen a lot (4.2/y) vs. the previous 22-year period (2.6/y).
I did a 12-minute interview last week with Radio Ecoshock on Hurricane Melissa, and the future of extreme hurricanes:
www.ecoshock.org/2025/11/thou...
www.ecoshock.org/2025/11/thou...
Thousand Year Storms – RADIO ECOSHOCK
www.ecoshock.org
November 10, 2025 at 4:16 PM
I did a 12-minute interview last week with Radio Ecoshock on Hurricane Melissa, and the future of extreme hurricanes:
www.ecoshock.org/2025/11/thou...
www.ecoshock.org/2025/11/thou...
Despite the lack of a planet-warming El Niño event this year, 2025 has been the 2nd-warmest year on record for the year-to-date period, and is on track to end up as the 2nd- or 3rd-warmest year on record, behind only the El Niño-warmed years of 2024 and 2023:
October 2025 was the planet's third-warmest October on record » Yale Climate Connections
Only October 2023 and October 2024 were warmer.
yaleclimateconnections.org
November 10, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Despite the lack of a planet-warming El Niño event this year, 2025 has been the 2nd-warmest year on record for the year-to-date period, and is on track to end up as the 2nd- or 3rd-warmest year on record, behind only the El Niño-warmed years of 2024 and 2023:
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Arizona has paused development of hundreds of thousands of homes on the far Phoenix fringes due to insufficient groundwater supplies, @highcountrynews.org finds: www.hcn.org/issues/57-10...
The dried-out subdivisions of Phoenix - High Country News
A groundwater crisis halted the construction of thousands of homes and pitted affordability against environmental concerns.
www.hcn.org
November 10, 2025 at 5:25 AM
Arizona has paused development of hundreds of thousands of homes on the far Phoenix fringes due to insufficient groundwater supplies, @highcountrynews.org finds: www.hcn.org/issues/57-10...
“A 0.5% annual risk might sound pretty low. But it’s a key metric for running a large insurance business in the Northeast. Why isn’t at least that level of risk the planning lever for local governments in that region, driving building codes, land use decisions, and investment priorities?”
Insurers plan for 1-in-200-year storms. Why don’t governments?
If a Melissa-level hurricane hit the Northeast, would we be ready? New column looks at climate whiplash, risk, and what real preparedness means.
open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...
If a Melissa-level hurricane hit the Northeast, would we be ready? New column looks at climate whiplash, risk, and what real preparedness means.
open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...
Insurers plan for extreme events that could crater their solvency. Shouldn’t all levels of government do the same?
What if a storm like Melissa hit the northeast US?
open.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:20 PM
“A 0.5% annual risk might sound pretty low. But it’s a key metric for running a large insurance business in the Northeast. Why isn’t at least that level of risk the planning lever for local governments in that region, driving building codes, land use decisions, and investment priorities?”
Advice from @katharinehayhoe.com: "Dismissives cannot click a link that may contain factual and accurate information about climate science, impacts, or solutions. They are incapable of doing so because they are so afraid of the threat that the truth represents to their identity and/or ideology."
On Dealing with Climate Dismissives
by Katherine Hayhoe
climatecafe.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Advice from @katharinehayhoe.com: "Dismissives cannot click a link that may contain factual and accurate information about climate science, impacts, or solutions. They are incapable of doing so because they are so afraid of the threat that the truth represents to their identity and/or ideology."
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
Fig 2 from our Year in Fire report. Here we show smoke days by county in California on average over the past decade and for 2024. There is no future without wildfire smoke. The future CAN be one where we accept the reality of smoke EMISSIONS but actively manage the harms from smoke EXPOSURE.
November 5, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Fig 2 from our Year in Fire report. Here we show smoke days by county in California on average over the past decade and for 2024. There is no future without wildfire smoke. The future CAN be one where we accept the reality of smoke EMISSIONS but actively manage the harms from smoke EXPOSURE.
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
My new passive-aggressive caption for images I make 😅:
"This digital collage was made by a human using Photoshop. That human's name is Sam Harrington."
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/imag...
"This digital collage was made by a human using Photoshop. That human's name is Sam Harrington."
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/imag...
Imagery faked with AI’s help only added to the awfulness of Hurricane Melissa » Yale Climate Connections
A Category 5 landfall during Halloween week was scary enough on its own.
yaleclimateconnections.org
November 4, 2025 at 2:54 PM
My new passive-aggressive caption for images I make 😅:
"This digital collage was made by a human using Photoshop. That human's name is Sam Harrington."
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/imag...
"This digital collage was made by a human using Photoshop. That human's name is Sam Harrington."
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/imag...
"Wherever the death toll, it will be wrong. A study following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017 found that excess deaths in the first few months following the storm was 70 times as much as the original official toll of 64 — still much more than officials' revision to 2,975 deaths later on."
Once more from yesterday: My newsletter was about how hurricanes kill people long after the wind and water is gone, how that will probably be worse in Jamaica, and how the media has already moved on from one of the worst storms to strike land in recorded history.
Please subscribe!
Please subscribe!
The Long Tail of Hurricane Death Will Be Even Longer in Jamaica
A growing body of research has demonstrated that hits from tropical cyclones leave more than just damaged rooftops in their wake, in fact raising mortality rates through a likely wide variety of mecha...
www.gravityisgone.com
November 3, 2025 at 3:00 PM
"Wherever the death toll, it will be wrong. A study following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017 found that excess deaths in the first few months following the storm was 70 times as much as the original official toll of 64 — still much more than officials' revision to 2,975 deaths later on."
“States and local communities should not be expected to pick up the slack to try to ensure their citizens’ safety — that is the modus operandi of a mafia protection ring, not the federal government. It should be noted that NOAA did not respond to Alaska Public Media’s requests for comment.”
Today in federal science slashed news, Alaska Public Media reports that NOAA has canceled a contract with the Alaska Earthquake center to collect data critical for NWS tsunami warnings. In weather, Kalmaegi a serious threat to Philippines and Vietnam. More: https://tinyurl.com/34p7n6f9
Alaska Public Media reports that NOAA canceled contract with state of Alaska for seismology data critical for tsunami warnings
Supercells produce very large hail in south Texas; a western Pacific tropical cyclone looks to have significant impacts this week.
tinyurl.com
November 2, 2025 at 7:12 PM
“States and local communities should not be expected to pick up the slack to try to ensure their citizens’ safety — that is the modus operandi of a mafia protection ring, not the federal government. It should be noted that NOAA did not respond to Alaska Public Media’s requests for comment.”
Reposted by Dr. Jeff Masters
ICYMI: Staggering rainfall in Vietnam in the past week. Bach Ma mountain near Hue City recorded a one-day rainfall of 1,740 mm (68.50 in). This is unofficially the second highest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded globally.
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
October 31, 2025 at 6:04 PM
ICYMI: Staggering rainfall in Vietnam in the past week. Bach Ma mountain near Hue City recorded a one-day rainfall of 1,740 mm (68.50 in). This is unofficially the second highest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded globally.
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)