Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
Catastrophe / climate risk / data viz at OAK Re
Visiting Research Fellow & PhD @ University of Reading
Associate Editor RMetS Weather. FRMetS.
Otherwise eating noodle soup or watching cricket
Own opinions etc. etc.
Visiting Research Fellow & PhD @ University of Reading
Associate Editor RMetS Weather. FRMetS.
Otherwise eating noodle soup or watching cricket
Own opinions etc. etc.
Pinned
Richard Dixon
@catinsight.bsky.social
· Nov 13
I think I was supposed to introduce myself on Bluesky ages ago. So here's an introduction. Hello!
Explaining a potentially difficult concept to an audience is quite an art and @aidanmcgivern.bsky.social is very good at it. Some of the @metoffice.gov.uk content on slightly more deep dive topics is really top notch. www.youtube.com/watch?v=KweN...
21/11/2025 – Implications for the UK? – Met Office weather forecast UK
YouTube video by Met Office - UK Weather
www.youtube.com
November 22, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Explaining a potentially difficult concept to an audience is quite an art and @aidanmcgivern.bsky.social is very good at it. Some of the @metoffice.gov.uk content on slightly more deep dive topics is really top notch. www.youtube.com/watch?v=KweN...
Probably for the 2nd time this winter already I've thought "an extra 2-3 degrees lower and this would have been fun"... sod's law it'll be roaring westerlies by January.
November 21, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Probably for the 2nd time this winter already I've thought "an extra 2-3 degrees lower and this would have been fun"... sod's law it'll be roaring westerlies by January.
A bit of discussion whether the percentage of storms making landfall as hurricanes is static or not using counterfactual analysis. Thanks to a) modelling experts Reask and b) AI without which I wouldn't be able to produce pretty-looking graphs like this one.
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
November 20, 2025 at 11:51 AM
A bit of discussion whether the percentage of storms making landfall as hurricanes is static or not using counterfactual analysis. Thanks to a) modelling experts Reask and b) AI without which I wouldn't be able to produce pretty-looking graphs like this one.
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
I mean you could at least have the decency to throw a bit of sleet into the mix but with a dewpoint of 4c that ain't happening. #uksnow CT14 0/10
November 19, 2025 at 11:48 AM
I mean you could at least have the decency to throw a bit of sleet into the mix but with a dewpoint of 4c that ain't happening. #uksnow CT14 0/10
Brrrrrrrrrr-exit
November 17, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Brrrrrrrrrr-exit
When I'm not making graphs in an attempt to look clever, I'm eating noodle soups. Here's the Blue Pelican in Deal, Kent which is knocking out a ridiculously good ramen on Sundays now and is arguably the best restaurant in Kent in my heavily biased opinion. Back to weather and catastrophes tomorrow.
November 16, 2025 at 4:08 PM
When I'm not making graphs in an attempt to look clever, I'm eating noodle soups. Here's the Blue Pelican in Deal, Kent which is knocking out a ridiculously good ramen on Sundays now and is arguably the best restaurant in Kent in my heavily biased opinion. Back to weather and catastrophes tomorrow.
Well done to the MetDesk team for their wxcharts.com update, excellent stuff.
November 15, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Well done to the MetDesk team for their wxcharts.com update, excellent stuff.
Not just 500 miles, 505 miles. Did someone get a ruler out?
#delusionalexactitude
#delusionalexactitude
November 14, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Not just 500 miles, 505 miles. Did someone get a ruler out?
#delusionalexactitude
#delusionalexactitude
Such a telling graph on relative frequency of record highs/low: a fitting riposte to the "look it's cold - so much for global warming" crew.
November 12, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Such a telling graph on relative frequency of record highs/low: a fitting riposte to the "look it's cold - so much for global warming" crew.
The US insured losses will end up zero, but still some interesting things to emerge from 2025 hurricane season. Around 35% of NHC analyses as a hurricane were Cat 4 or 5. Am sure present-day numbers are partly influenced by more recon flights, but it's still food for thought.
November 12, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The US insured losses will end up zero, but still some interesting things to emerge from 2025 hurricane season. Around 35% of NHC analyses as a hurricane were Cat 4 or 5. Am sure present-day numbers are partly influenced by more recon flights, but it's still food for thought.
Reposted by Richard Dixon
Looking for a PhD in climate science?
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
PhD Redeveloping Central England Temperature: Modernising a Historic Climate Series, CASE project with Met Office (OSBORNT_U26SCI) 2026/27 | UEA
PhD Redeveloping Central England Temperature: Modernising a Historic Climate Series, CASE project with Met Office (OSBORNT_U26SCI) 2026/27 | UEA
www.uea.ac.uk
November 12, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Looking for a PhD in climate science?
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature.
Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...
And looking at climatologically - for London at least - we're reaching the sort of values that we reached at the end of the year in the 1980s by mid-July in the 2020s...
November 5, 2025 at 1:55 PM
And looking at climatologically - for London at least - we're reaching the sort of values that we reached at the end of the year in the 1980s by mid-July in the 2020s...
Wondered how warm it was this year from a "cumulative excess temperature above 20c" standpoint. Turns out 3rd warmest in London since 1970. Left: how uncannily close 2025 and 1976 traces are! Right: UK-wide: a lot of E/SE Eng was ranked top 3 year for this value, most of Eng & Wales top 10 ranked.
November 5, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Wondered how warm it was this year from a "cumulative excess temperature above 20c" standpoint. Turns out 3rd warmest in London since 1970. Left: how uncannily close 2025 and 1976 traces are! Right: UK-wide: a lot of E/SE Eng was ranked top 3 year for this value, most of Eng & Wales top 10 ranked.
Only one taking a chance...
October 28, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Only one taking a chance...
Current central pressure of Melissa at 892mb tied with the Labor Day hurricane ahead of landfall must be peak weathernerd material.
October 28, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Current central pressure of Melissa at 892mb tied with the Labor Day hurricane ahead of landfall must be peak weathernerd material.
Another hot take: put 6 or 7 things on here that I wondered might provoke a bit of discussion. Bit of interest, but not a single comment. One thing I'll say about Twitter is that people interacted. When did talking about stuff die? Or it could just be that most of my followers are bots...
October 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Another hot take: put 6 or 7 things on here that I wondered might provoke a bit of discussion. Bit of interest, but not a single comment. One thing I'll say about Twitter is that people interacted. When did talking about stuff die? Or it could just be that most of my followers are bots...
Hot take, but part of the world's seas in peak season where #Melissa grew has seen very little change in crude conditions for rapid cyclogenesis (mid-level moisture, shear < 5 m/s, SSTs > 28c) recently. A narrative could be edge-of-season increases in favourable conditions: e.g. 2nd half of Oct.
October 27, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Hot take, but part of the world's seas in peak season where #Melissa grew has seen very little change in crude conditions for rapid cyclogenesis (mid-level moisture, shear < 5 m/s, SSTs > 28c) recently. A narrative could be edge-of-season increases in favourable conditions: e.g. 2nd half of Oct.
Current #Melissa eye diameter of 10nm & 45km wide hurricane force winds projected along current track wouldn't bring much wind impact to Kingston (SE Jamaica). So any eyewall replacement and widening of the storm could bring Kingston into play. But the surge is another beast altogether...
October 27, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Current #Melissa eye diameter of 10nm & 45km wide hurricane force winds projected along current track wouldn't bring much wind impact to Kingston (SE Jamaica). So any eyewall replacement and widening of the storm could bring Kingston into play. But the surge is another beast altogether...
Reposted by Richard Dixon
This 150M cat bond for Jamaica has a trigger design that uses hurricane central pressure and location.
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
October 27, 2025 at 4:26 PM
This 150M cat bond for Jamaica has a trigger design that uses hurricane central pressure and location.
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
After this year I was beginning to think that Bluesky wasn't the place for pre- and post-event hurricane detail. I stand corrected, my feed is awash !
(I still wish there was more discussion though).
(I still wish there was more discussion though).
October 27, 2025 at 2:56 PM
After this year I was beginning to think that Bluesky wasn't the place for pre- and post-event hurricane detail. I stand corrected, my feed is awash !
(I still wish there was more discussion though).
(I still wish there was more discussion though).
A few thoughts on #Melissa from historical and climate context: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
October 27, 2025 at 11:28 AM
A few thoughts on #Melissa from historical and climate context: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
SSTs in the region where #Melissa has been developing are well above average - even compared to the past 30 years of warmer sea. Interestingly, also shear in the part of the world has been fairly consistently low (compared to 1950 onwards) since August... bit of a "loaded gun" you could argue...
October 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
SSTs in the region where #Melissa has been developing are well above average - even compared to the past 30 years of warmer sea. Interestingly, also shear in the part of the world has been fairly consistently low (compared to 1950 onwards) since August... bit of a "loaded gun" you could argue...
Looking at history post 25th Oct (when #Melissa got going) as of 06Z/26th it's the 3rd fastest rapid deepener (12h windspeed delta) from that date onwards. Late season warm seas & activity a real talking point for those of us working to understanding present-day hurricane risk for their companies.
October 26, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Looking at history post 25th Oct (when #Melissa got going) as of 06Z/26th it's the 3rd fastest rapid deepener (12h windspeed delta) from that date onwards. Late season warm seas & activity a real talking point for those of us working to understanding present-day hurricane risk for their companies.
I can see a 25kt 12hr intensification of #Melissa - pretty good going for this time of year or later, but by no means unprecedented as left chart of max 12h intensification after this day of the year in HURDAT shows. And let's not forget how wild late-season 2020 was for rapid intensification.
October 25, 2025 at 10:00 AM
I can see a 25kt 12hr intensification of #Melissa - pretty good going for this time of year or later, but by no means unprecedented as left chart of max 12h intensification after this day of the year in HURDAT shows. And let's not forget how wild late-season 2020 was for rapid intensification.
Unsurprisingly the longer #Melissa takes to make the turn, the longer it spends over deep warm seas and the more intense it gets. Contrast the tracks from ECMWF Ensembles that hit the eastern side of Jamaica vs western side... (beautiful display of data from deepmind.google.com/science/weat...)
October 24, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Unsurprisingly the longer #Melissa takes to make the turn, the longer it spends over deep warm seas and the more intense it gets. Contrast the tracks from ECMWF Ensembles that hit the eastern side of Jamaica vs western side... (beautiful display of data from deepmind.google.com/science/weat...)