Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
Climate scientist, geologist, and catastrophe modeler, Liberty Mutual. Posts on all things hurricane, wildfire, flood, earthquake, tornado. Sassy takes are mine not employer's.
📍Oakland, CA
Website: hereidk.strikingly.com
📍Oakland, CA
Website: hereidk.strikingly.com
Pinned
Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
· Jun 17
Really excited to share a project we've been working on with Swiss Re, examining challenges to implementing landscape-scale wildfire mitigation and where the insurance industry needs to get creative to crack some roadblocks: www.libertymutualgroup.com/documents/wi... 1/🧵
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
PG&E, National Grid and other big utilities are using AI models to pick out relatively cheap, targeted fixes that cut the risk of sparking a deadly fire -- think individual poles to replace and trees to trim back. Story w/ @joewertz.bsky.social (gift link) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Massive Wildfire Liabilities Push Utilities to Use AI to Stop Blazes
Power companies are turning to tech firms that can spot fragile trees and map high-risk areas before fires start.
www.bloomberg.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:58 PM
PG&E, National Grid and other big utilities are using AI models to pick out relatively cheap, targeted fixes that cut the risk of sparking a deadly fire -- think individual poles to replace and trees to trim back. Story w/ @joewertz.bsky.social (gift link) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Re-upping this position before the December 1st application deadline. I'm looking to hire a post-doc - could be a climate scientist or environmental economist. Ideal start early 2026 but could be later. Please circulate!
🚨The Moore Lab at UC Davis is hiring!🚨
Post-doc for a project with @adamsobel.bsky.social on the valuation of climate information for adaptation
Could be a good fit for an environmental economist or a climate scientist - flexible start date and location
Apply by Dec 1st: recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07346
Post-doc for a project with @adamsobel.bsky.social on the valuation of climate information for adaptation
Could be a good fit for an environmental economist or a climate scientist - flexible start date and location
Apply by Dec 1st: recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07346
Postdoctoral Scholar - Environmental Science & Policy
University of California, Davis is hiring. Apply now!
recruit.ucdavis.edu
November 25, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Re-upping this position before the December 1st application deadline. I'm looking to hire a post-doc - could be a climate scientist or environmental economist. Ideal start early 2026 but could be later. Please circulate!
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Wild paper: "insights into how one of the key actors of the 2007–2008 financial crisis is beginning to lay the epistemic groundwork for future economic crises and inequalities in and between cities, this time as they relate to climate change impacts...."
@savannahcox.bsky.social wrote a nice paper on this a few years ago that I in my head refer to as the "convince your Moody's analyst you're for real as climate adaptation strategy" paper, go give it a read if you haven't.
PS welcome to bsky! 12/
PS welcome to bsky! 12/
Inscriptions of resilience: Bond ratings and the government of climate risk in Greater Miami, Florid...
In recent years, credit rating agencies have begun to incorporate a municipality's resilience and vulnerability to climate change into their US municipal bond r...
journals.sagepub.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Wild paper: "insights into how one of the key actors of the 2007–2008 financial crisis is beginning to lay the epistemic groundwork for future economic crises and inequalities in and between cities, this time as they relate to climate change impacts...."
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
The latest Eruptions newsletter is out. Inside: images/video from the eruption of Semeru in Indonesia, a deep dive into lahars on the anniversary of the Nevado del Ruiz tragedy and get grumpy about the terrible journalism surrounding Rainier's cranky seismometer eruptions.beehiiv.com/p/eruptions-...
Eruptions Newsletter #23 for November 21, 2025
We're back in more ways than one with news from Semeru in Indonesia, the latest eruptions at Kīlauea and the viral malfunctioning seismometer at Mount Rainier.
eruptions.beehiiv.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:02 PM
The latest Eruptions newsletter is out. Inside: images/video from the eruption of Semeru in Indonesia, a deep dive into lahars on the anniversary of the Nevado del Ruiz tragedy and get grumpy about the terrible journalism surrounding Rainier's cranky seismometer eruptions.beehiiv.com/p/eruptions-...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Nice write up of our recent work to address flood risk in Florida by @noaa.gov
coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/new-mod...
coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/new-mod...
New Model Enables Rapid Flood Prediction in Miami to Support Risk Management - NCCOS - National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science
An NCCOS-supported research team developed a new model to rapidly simulate flood patterns in Miami, Florida, and better manage storm hazards. The model introduces a novel approach to represent the inf...
coastalscience.noaa.gov
November 21, 2025 at 4:43 AM
Nice write up of our recent work to address flood risk in Florida by @noaa.gov
coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/new-mod...
coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/new-mod...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
We've used this so far for policy analysis (doi.org/10.1073/pnas...), capturing flood-risk dynamics (doi.org/10.1111/jfr3...), and isolating the effect of structure inventory errors on damage estimates (dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...).
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Our free and open source software for estimating property level flood risk under uncertainty now has a peer reviewed software paper!
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
Just published in JOSS: 'UNSAFE: An UNcertain Structure And Fragility Ensemble framework for property-level flood risk estimation' https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.07527
November 13, 2025 at 2:34 PM
We've used this so far for policy analysis (doi.org/10.1073/pnas...), capturing flood-risk dynamics (doi.org/10.1111/jfr3...), and isolating the effect of structure inventory errors on damage estimates (dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...).
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Our free and open source software for estimating property level flood risk under uncertainty now has a peer reviewed software paper!
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
Just published in JOSS: 'UNSAFE: An UNcertain Structure And Fragility Ensemble framework for property-level flood risk estimation' https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.07527
November 13, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Our free and open source software for estimating property level flood risk under uncertainty now has a peer reviewed software paper!
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
Was digging through the supplementary data from the excellent study, as one does, and found the buried nugget that building survival increases from 20% to 40% with building hardening + zone zero... but you get to 37% with zone zero alone????
California communities can reduce wildfire damage by half. Here’s how:
Our new study "Fire risk to structures in California’s Wildland-Urban Interface" was published in Nature Communications today! www.nature.com/articles/s41...
news.berkeley.edu/2025/08/28/c...
Our new study "Fire risk to structures in California’s Wildland-Urban Interface" was published in Nature Communications today! www.nature.com/articles/s41...
news.berkeley.edu/2025/08/28/c...
Fire risk to structures in California’s Wildland-Urban Interface - Nature Communications
Wildfire risk in California’s WUI is rising. Analysis of past events shows home hardening and defensible space can reduce structure loss by up to 52%, but coordinated, community-scale action is essent...
www.nature.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Was digging through the supplementary data from the excellent study, as one does, and found the buried nugget that building survival increases from 20% to 40% with building hardening + zone zero... but you get to 37% with zone zero alone????
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
A bit of discussion whether the percentage of storms making landfall as hurricanes is static or not using counterfactual analysis. Thanks to a) modelling experts Reask and b) AI without which I wouldn't be able to produce pretty-looking graphs like this one.
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
November 20, 2025 at 11:51 AM
A bit of discussion whether the percentage of storms making landfall as hurricanes is static or not using counterfactual analysis. Thanks to a) modelling experts Reask and b) AI without which I wouldn't be able to produce pretty-looking graphs like this one.
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
oakreinsurance.com/news/hurrica...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Yeah, I think the problem is right for some interesting simulation exercises. A colleague and I did something a little bit similar a few years ago where we knocked out the peak flow from every USGS gauge in the country and then re-computed the FFA: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
The weight of the flood‐of‐record in flood frequency analysis
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 20, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Yeah, I think the problem is right for some interesting simulation exercises. A colleague and I did something a little bit similar a few years ago where we knocked out the peak flow from every USGS gauge in the country and then re-computed the FFA: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
First state to do this, says @wsj.com. New Mexico expands free childcare (beginning at six weeks of age) to all incomes. Had been income limits before ($130,000 for family of four.)
www.wsj.com/us-news/in-a...
www.wsj.com/us-news/in-a...
In a U.S. First, New Mexico Opens Doors to Free Child Care for All
The state aims to give children a better start, but faces supply and staffing concerns.
www.wsj.com
November 20, 2025 at 11:29 AM
First state to do this, says @wsj.com. New Mexico expands free childcare (beginning at six weeks of age) to all incomes. Had been income limits before ($130,000 for family of four.)
www.wsj.com/us-news/in-a...
www.wsj.com/us-news/in-a...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.
November 19, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
This is a terribly misunderstood point, even in insurance circles.
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
The defense that this was just an adjustment based on better data is self-serving BS.
We do *not* know what the 100-yr flood level is - even if we had perfect DEMs.
Even if we had perfect historical data, non-stationarity means we don’t know what the level is *now*, let alone in the future.
We do *not* know what the 100-yr flood level is - even if we had perfect DEMs.
Even if we had perfect historical data, non-stationarity means we don’t know what the level is *now*, let alone in the future.
November 20, 2025 at 1:48 AM
This is a terribly misunderstood point, even in insurance circles.
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
Our estimates of the 1 in 100 flood are almost always extrapolations and depend heavily on our assumptions and a few (or zero) real events. In most cases, the 'actual' 1:100 flood could be ~20% lower or higher (at least).
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Some of NOLA’s floodwalls are sinking.
eos.org/articles/par...
Read more in our year-end issue: bit.ly/Eos-Nov-Dec2025
eos.org/articles/par...
Read more in our year-end issue: bit.ly/Eos-Nov-Dec2025
Parts of New Orleans Are Sinking - Eos
Areas near the airport, along floodwalls, and in nearby wetlands are subsiding because of a combination of natural and anthropogenic forces.
eos.org
November 19, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Some of NOLA’s floodwalls are sinking.
eos.org/articles/par...
Read more in our year-end issue: bit.ly/Eos-Nov-Dec2025
eos.org/articles/par...
Read more in our year-end issue: bit.ly/Eos-Nov-Dec2025
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Philip Mulder and I are excited to share a major update to our working paper, "Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data," with NYT coverage and making our data publicly available!
www.nber.org/papers/w32579
(1/n)
www.nber.org/papers/w32579
(1/n)
Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
November 19, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Philip Mulder and I are excited to share a major update to our working paper, "Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data," with NYT coverage and making our data publicly available!
www.nber.org/papers/w32579
(1/n)
www.nber.org/papers/w32579
(1/n)
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Did you ever wonder what return period Atlas 14 would assign to this 5 min damp Tom Holland event if it were to occur in NE Ohio?
Well do I have the post for you...
Well do I have the post for you...
just learned we won an award for our blog post about Tom Holland and stormwater management.
remember, when you see an article about stormwater management, you repost it. i don’t make the rules.
remember, when you see an article about stormwater management, you repost it. i don’t make the rules.
What Tom Holland’s historic lip-sync showcase taught us about stormwater management
Grab your umbrella and your tights.
neorsd.medium.com
November 19, 2025 at 3:12 AM
Did you ever wonder what return period Atlas 14 would assign to this 5 min damp Tom Holland event if it were to occur in NE Ohio?
Well do I have the post for you...
Well do I have the post for you...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
66% of all solar and 69%(!) of all wind installed globally this year, will be installed in China🤯🇨🇳
November 19, 2025 at 1:11 PM
66% of all solar and 69%(!) of all wind installed globally this year, will be installed in China🤯🇨🇳
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I’m looking to hire a summer intern that’s interested in #climateris!. If you like natural hazards, finance, and tech this is a great team to be on
careers.moodys.com/insurance-ad...
careers.moodys.com/insurance-ad...
November 19, 2025 at 2:11 AM
I’m looking to hire a summer intern that’s interested in #climateris!. If you like natural hazards, finance, and tech this is a great team to be on
careers.moodys.com/insurance-ad...
careers.moodys.com/insurance-ad...
Did you ever wonder what return period Atlas 14 would assign to this 5 min damp Tom Holland event if it were to occur in NE Ohio?
Well do I have the post for you...
Well do I have the post for you...
just learned we won an award for our blog post about Tom Holland and stormwater management.
remember, when you see an article about stormwater management, you repost it. i don’t make the rules.
remember, when you see an article about stormwater management, you repost it. i don’t make the rules.
What Tom Holland’s historic lip-sync showcase taught us about stormwater management
Grab your umbrella and your tights.
neorsd.medium.com
November 19, 2025 at 3:12 AM
Did you ever wonder what return period Atlas 14 would assign to this 5 min damp Tom Holland event if it were to occur in NE Ohio?
Well do I have the post for you...
Well do I have the post for you...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Our new whitepaper on lessons from southeastern wind pools for wildfire disaster insurance in California and other western states - an effort led by CEPP Legal Fellow Sam Hudgens, is available here:
drive.google.com/file/d/1ZHCS...
drive.google.com/file/d/1ZHCS...
Stanford CEPP_November 2025_Examing Disaster Insurance Markets
drive.google.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Our new whitepaper on lessons from southeastern wind pools for wildfire disaster insurance in California and other western states - an effort led by CEPP Legal Fellow Sam Hudgens, is available here:
drive.google.com/file/d/1ZHCS...
drive.google.com/file/d/1ZHCS...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
🔌 A new report shows power outages are lasting longer as extreme weather takes a bigger toll.
• Average longest outage jumped from 8.1 hours in 2022 → 12.8 hours by mid-2025
• The South saw the worst of it with 18.2hrs outages, with the West next at 12.4hrs
www.utilitydive.com/news/power-o...
• Average longest outage jumped from 8.1 hours in 2022 → 12.8 hours by mid-2025
• The South saw the worst of it with 18.2hrs outages, with the West next at 12.4hrs
www.utilitydive.com/news/power-o...
Power outages getting longer as extreme weather takes larger toll, report says
The average length of the longest power outage has increased in all regions since 2022, according to JD Power.
www.utilitydive.com
November 18, 2025 at 7:01 PM
🔌 A new report shows power outages are lasting longer as extreme weather takes a bigger toll.
• Average longest outage jumped from 8.1 hours in 2022 → 12.8 hours by mid-2025
• The South saw the worst of it with 18.2hrs outages, with the West next at 12.4hrs
www.utilitydive.com/news/power-o...
• Average longest outage jumped from 8.1 hours in 2022 → 12.8 hours by mid-2025
• The South saw the worst of it with 18.2hrs outages, with the West next at 12.4hrs
www.utilitydive.com/news/power-o...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Big tech needs access to the grid for AI data centers. In many cases, crypto got there first. Free link:
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
AI Data Centers Are Banging on Crypto’s Door
Developers desperately need access to electricity—and bitcoin miners are in a prime position to assist.
www.wsj.com
November 18, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Big tech needs access to the grid for AI data centers. In many cases, crypto got there first. Free link:
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
This is quite disturbing- I know LLMs are a problem but the extent they discovered is really concerning for science
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/s...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/s...
The Editor Got a Letter From ‘Dr. B.S.’ So Did a Lot of Other Editors.
www.nytimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
This is quite disturbing- I know LLMs are a problem but the extent they discovered is really concerning for science
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/s...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/s...
Major ground subsidence on the north and west side of Houston, especially around new developments in Katy, from overdrawing groundwater. Cracks foundations and increases flood risk.
HT Ryan Riggs, and great reporting by @houstonchronicle.com 🎁 link ⚒️
HT Ryan Riggs, and great reporting by @houstonchronicle.com 🎁 link ⚒️
These suburbs have the fastest-sinking ground in Houston. What's going on?
Houston’s land is sinking. And its fast-growing population and growing water demands are making it worse in the suburbs. Here is the billion-plus dollar plan to slow subsidence.
www.houstonchronicle.com
November 18, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Major ground subsidence on the north and west side of Houston, especially around new developments in Katy, from overdrawing groundwater. Cracks foundations and increases flood risk.
HT Ryan Riggs, and great reporting by @houstonchronicle.com 🎁 link ⚒️
HT Ryan Riggs, and great reporting by @houstonchronicle.com 🎁 link ⚒️