Adam Pollack
@crispapoll.bsky.social
Policy analysis for problems defined by pluralistic values and deep uncertainties. Most of my research is on flood-risk management problems.
Research scientist @ Dartmouth College. Incoming assistant professor @ Univ. of Iowa
https://abpoll.github.io/
Research scientist @ Dartmouth College. Incoming assistant professor @ Univ. of Iowa
https://abpoll.github.io/
Pinned
Adam Pollack
@crispapoll.bsky.social
· Jan 7
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
www.pnas.org
New publication on federal funding rules that promote equity in climate adaptation outcomes, with particular attention to the Justice40 Initiative and a few simple funding rules that may better achieve the policy's intentions: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Who has made this 🤣
December 7, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Who has made this 🤣
Reposted by Adam Pollack
I’m actually surprised how well Santa answers these difficult questions in the face of a full on press from the New Yorker’s Isaac Chotiner. [mcsweeneys.net]
The New Yorker’s Isaac Chotiner Interviews Santa Claus
For several centuries, Santa Claus has been one of the most prolific mythical gift-givers in the world. Formerly known as Saint Nicholas of Myra, a…
www.mcsweeneys.net
December 5, 2025 at 7:10 PM
I’m actually surprised how well Santa answers these difficult questions in the face of a full on press from the New Yorker’s Isaac Chotiner. [mcsweeneys.net]
Introducing Nature Credibility. For the low price of $100,000, we will immediately send out your proprietary climate risk model for peer review (😉). Don't worry, you never have to share data or code, and as long as you say it's validated, we'll publish it!
Peer reviewed journals are far from a solution in general of course, and especially journal farms, but more specifically the components of a risk model *cannot* be validated in isolation.
Even a decent hazard model will produce nonsense if not tied to an appropriate vulnerability model.
Even a decent hazard model will produce nonsense if not tied to an appropriate vulnerability model.
December 3, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Introducing Nature Credibility. For the low price of $100,000, we will immediately send out your proprietary climate risk model for peer review (😉). Don't worry, you never have to share data or code, and as long as you say it's validated, we'll publish it!
Reposted by Adam Pollack
I am continually working to get as many different actors in this space as possible to actually describe, in meaningful detail, not just *what* data was used but *how* it was actually used. Often that's not even very clear from the peer-reviewed papers that are coming out in this space!
December 3, 2025 at 5:54 PM
I am continually working to get as many different actors in this space as possible to actually describe, in meaningful detail, not just *what* data was used but *how* it was actually used. Often that's not even very clear from the peer-reviewed papers that are coming out in this space!
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Or any journal, honestly. Saying “peer review” as a defense against questions about transparency is a ploy for people who don’t know better. Any of us on this thread, who published regularly know that it is a very imperfect system and not some stamp of approval.
December 3, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Or any journal, honestly. Saying “peer review” as a defense against questions about transparency is a ploy for people who don’t know better. Any of us on this thread, who published regularly know that it is a very imperfect system and not some stamp of approval.
Plot your dependent variables!
Authors retract Nature paper projecting high costs of climate change
The authors of a highly publicized study predicting climate change would cost $38 trillion a year by 2049 have retracted their paper following criticism of the data and methodology, including that …
retractionwatch.com
December 3, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Plot your dependent variables!
Reposted by Adam Pollack
It's 2025 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
It's 2020 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
It's 2011 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
It's 1978 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
It's 2020 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
It's 2011 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
It's 1978 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Climate Services: The Business of Physical Risk
A growing number of investors, insurers, financial services providers, and nonprofits rely on information about localized physical climate risks, like floods, h
papers.ssrn.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:01 PM
It's 2025 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
It's 2020 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
It's 2011 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
It's 1978 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
It's 2020 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
It's 2011 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
It's 1978 and people are calling for a National Climate Service
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Adam Pollack
RFK Jr: "Two weeks ago we ended, under your leadership, a twenty year war on women".
Three out of five men in this shot have been accused of sexual misconduct, harassment or abusive behaviour towards women. A fourth signed into law a near-total abortion ban in his state as governor.
Three out of five men in this shot have been accused of sexual misconduct, harassment or abusive behaviour towards women. A fourth signed into law a near-total abortion ban in his state as governor.
December 2, 2025 at 6:46 PM
RFK Jr: "Two weeks ago we ended, under your leadership, a twenty year war on women".
Three out of five men in this shot have been accused of sexual misconduct, harassment or abusive behaviour towards women. A fourth signed into law a near-total abortion ban in his state as governor.
Three out of five men in this shot have been accused of sexual misconduct, harassment or abusive behaviour towards women. A fourth signed into law a near-total abortion ban in his state as governor.
Reposted by Adam Pollack
I guess I’m not surprised but the characterization of people re: Zillow as being either “for” or “against” climate transparency is so simplistic. You can be all for climate data and also questioning whether products like First Street are appropriate for property level risk assessment.
December 2, 2025 at 11:02 PM
I guess I’m not surprised but the characterization of people re: Zillow as being either “for” or “against” climate transparency is so simplistic. You can be all for climate data and also questioning whether products like First Street are appropriate for property level risk assessment.
Glad this mentions @eroston.bsky.social's article but the question is not FS or nothing. There are many states with flood disclosure laws (not mentioned), which mandate *verifiable* information related to risks. Should modeled future risks be included in this? Maybe, but not with the current options
People trying to sell you houses at high prices don't want you to know about their climate risks (or other inconvenient numbers). Buyer beware.
Gift link to my column for @opinion.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Gift link to my column for @opinion.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Erasing a Home’s Risks on Zillow Doesn’t Make Them Go Away
We live in a golden age of magical thinking, and I’m not just talking about the trillions of dollars being burned on artificial intelligence. When it comes to our rapidly heating planet and its effect...
www.bloomberg.com
December 2, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Glad this mentions @eroston.bsky.social's article but the question is not FS or nothing. There are many states with flood disclosure laws (not mentioned), which mandate *verifiable* information related to risks. Should modeled future risks be included in this? Maybe, but not with the current options
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Hi, in case you're curious, we looked at the performance of different models last year:
🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
The Risky Business of Predicting Where Climate Disaster Will Hit
Climate tech companies can calculate the chances that a flood or wildfire will ravage your home. But what if their odds are all different?
www.bloomberg.com
November 30, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Hi, in case you're curious, we looked at the performance of different models last year:
🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Kelly's point is why I think the merits of Zillow removing climate risk scores (www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...) is fairly nuanced. To make it clear: Zillow clearly did not do this for the right reasons, and the realty and developer lobbies have long been opponents of better climate information.
December 1, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Kelly's point is why I think the merits of Zillow removing climate risk scores (www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...) is fairly nuanced. To make it clear: Zillow clearly did not do this for the right reasons, and the realty and developer lobbies have long been opponents of better climate information.
FYI there are state level disclosure laws on at least flooding (insurance requirements, past losses) and real estate lobbies have recently supported these or at least not publicly fought like ~10y ago (see PA). Unverifiable modeled risk estimates on Zillow/RedFin is a totally different story
The solution here is not no information, as the realtors would apparently prefer.
It is better information about risk for home buyers.
The information will come to light anyway as soon as the buyer tries to get insurance.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
It is better information about risk for home buyers.
The information will come to light anyway as soon as the buyer tries to get insurance.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings
www.nytimes.com
December 1, 2025 at 1:46 PM
FYI there are state level disclosure laws on at least flooding (insurance requirements, past losses) and real estate lobbies have recently supported these or at least not publicly fought like ~10y ago (see PA). Unverifiable modeled risk estimates on Zillow/RedFin is a totally different story
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Re-upping this position before the December 1st application deadline. I'm looking to hire a post-doc - could be a climate scientist or environmental economist. Ideal start early 2026 but could be later. Please circulate!
🚨The Moore Lab at UC Davis is hiring!🚨
Post-doc for a project with @adamsobel.bsky.social on the valuation of climate information for adaptation
Could be a good fit for an environmental economist or a climate scientist - flexible start date and location
Apply by Dec 1st: recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07346
Post-doc for a project with @adamsobel.bsky.social on the valuation of climate information for adaptation
Could be a good fit for an environmental economist or a climate scientist - flexible start date and location
Apply by Dec 1st: recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07346
Postdoctoral Scholar - Environmental Science & Policy
University of California, Davis is hiring. Apply now!
recruit.ucdavis.edu
November 25, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Re-upping this position before the December 1st application deadline. I'm looking to hire a post-doc - could be a climate scientist or environmental economist. Ideal start early 2026 but could be later. Please circulate!
Reposted by Adam Pollack
'Iran’s capital must be moved because the country “no longer has a choice,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday in remarks carried by state media, warning that severe ecological strain has made Tehran impossible to sustain'
#Iran 🇮🇷
#Iran 🇮🇷
Iran president says capital move now a necessity as water crisis deepens
Iran’s capital must be moved because the country “no longer has a choice,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday in remarks carried by state media, warning that severe ecological strain has mad...
www.iranintl.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:52 AM
'Iran’s capital must be moved because the country “no longer has a choice,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday in remarks carried by state media, warning that severe ecological strain has made Tehran impossible to sustain'
#Iran 🇮🇷
#Iran 🇮🇷
Reposted by Adam Pollack
@thomas-wahl.bsky.social was featured in National Geographic discussing the rapid decline of Florida’s coral reefs and what it means for coastal resilience, with reefs suffering unprecedented losses in 2023.
Full article: www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/...
Full article: www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/...
Why hurricane flooding is about to get more dangerous in Florida
Florida’s coral reefs provide protection from hurricane storm surges—and experts estimate that losing key species in those reefs could imperil thousands of lives.
www.nationalgeographic.com
November 20, 2025 at 4:13 PM
@thomas-wahl.bsky.social was featured in National Geographic discussing the rapid decline of Florida’s coral reefs and what it means for coastal resilience, with reefs suffering unprecedented losses in 2023.
Full article: www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/...
Full article: www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
THREAD: Judge Ellis is the first federal judge to review extensive body cam video of DHS's actions in Chicago. She finds that DHS *repeatedly* misled the public and made claims that were disproven by agents' own videos.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
![II. Credibility
The Court next addresses the credibility of the parties’ evidence and witnesses. After reviewing all the evidence submitted to the Court and listening to the testimony elicited at the preliminary injunction hearing, during depositions, and in other court proceedings, the Court finds Defendants’ evidence simply not credible. [FN 6]
Plaintiffs submitted a mountain of evidence, providing the Court with over eighty declarations, numerous videos and articles, and other evidence. Defendants did not rebut anything that Plaintiffs set forth in their declarations or testimony, even with BWC footage.
[FN 6] In another case considering some of the same evidence presented to this Court, another court in this district also found that the perceptions of certain of Defendants’ declarants, such as Hott and Parra, were not reliable. See Illinois v. Trump, No. 25-cv-12174, 2025 WL 2886645, at *5 (N.D. Ill. Oct. 10, 2025) (noting a “troubling trend of Defendants’ declarants equating protests with riots and a lack of appreciation for the wide spectrum that exists between citizens who are observing, questioning, and criticizing their government, and those who are obstructing, assaulting, or doing violence”), motion to stay denied in part, 155 F.4th 929 (7th Cir. 2025).](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2vtbmhmrwzbqcfv4we4uxzzt/bafkreifpyry2il5toxbr3iejgrsxs6kmnwve75qwnhebfp44ieyjrfpsdu@jpeg)
November 20, 2025 at 11:04 PM
THREAD: Judge Ellis is the first federal judge to review extensive body cam video of DHS's actions in Chicago. She finds that DHS *repeatedly* misled the public and made claims that were disproven by agents' own videos.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
Awesome job opportunity to serve local communities and direct use-informed research as a program manager at the Iowa Flood Center (lnkd.in/gW82gR6F). I haven't even started at Iowa yet and the people at the Iowa Flood Center could not be more welcoming, dedicated, and effective.
November 20, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Awesome job opportunity to serve local communities and direct use-informed research as a program manager at the Iowa Flood Center (lnkd.in/gW82gR6F). I haven't even started at Iowa yet and the people at the Iowa Flood Center could not be more welcoming, dedicated, and effective.
Reposted by Adam Pollack
"Iran is facing its worst water crisis in decades. With no end in sight and authorities warning they may even have to evacuate the capital of 10 million people, residents like Ensani are scrambling to respond."
www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
Taps run dry as water crisis forces Iran to consider evacuating its capital
A prolonged drought along with years of overconsumption, an inefficient agricultural sector and mismanagement have led to the problem, analysts say.
www.nbcnews.com
November 16, 2025 at 1:12 PM
"Iran is facing its worst water crisis in decades. With no end in sight and authorities warning they may even have to evacuate the capital of 10 million people, residents like Ensani are scrambling to respond."
www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
i want to put this in front of conservative pundits who defended this raid bsky.app/profile/raws...
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem should resign and be criminally charged, according to critics who seized on a report revealing that zero people who were arrested in a high-profile raid were charged with a crime.
'Noem should resign over this': Fury over alleged DHS 'child kidnapping and trafficking'
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem should resign and be criminally charged, according to critics who seized on a report revealing that zero people who were arrested in a high-profile raid were charged with a crime.ProPublica recently reported on the DHS raid on an apartment building that was al...
bit.ly
November 16, 2025 at 5:05 PM
i want to put this in front of conservative pundits who defended this raid bsky.app/profile/raws...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
NEW: We’ve uncovered the first known example of taxpayer money flowing from DHS to businesses controlled by Kristi Noem’s allies and friends.
It’s part of a money trail that’s been shrouded in secrecy—and involves $220 million, a mysterious Delaware LLC & a horse named Gill.
It’s part of a money trail that’s been shrouded in secrecy—and involves $220 million, a mysterious Delaware LLC & a horse named Gill.
November 14, 2025 at 12:20 PM
NEW: We’ve uncovered the first known example of taxpayer money flowing from DHS to businesses controlled by Kristi Noem’s allies and friends.
It’s part of a money trail that’s been shrouded in secrecy—and involves $220 million, a mysterious Delaware LLC & a horse named Gill.
It’s part of a money trail that’s been shrouded in secrecy—and involves $220 million, a mysterious Delaware LLC & a horse named Gill.
Reposted by Adam Pollack
As all this disgusting Epstein shit starts surfacing more and more, I hope we don't lose sight of the fact that apparently every major media outlet knew everything and instead spent their time money and energy attacking the trans community.
November 13, 2025 at 1:07 AM
As all this disgusting Epstein shit starts surfacing more and more, I hope we don't lose sight of the fact that apparently every major media outlet knew everything and instead spent their time money and energy attacking the trans community.
We've used this so far for policy analysis (doi.org/10.1073/pnas...), capturing flood-risk dynamics (doi.org/10.1111/jfr3...), and isolating the effect of structure inventory errors on damage estimates (dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...).
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Our free and open source software for estimating property level flood risk under uncertainty now has a peer reviewed software paper!
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
Just published in JOSS: 'UNSAFE: An UNcertain Structure And Fragility Ensemble framework for property-level flood risk estimation' https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.07527
November 13, 2025 at 2:34 PM
We've used this so far for policy analysis (doi.org/10.1073/pnas...), capturing flood-risk dynamics (doi.org/10.1111/jfr3...), and isolating the effect of structure inventory errors on damage estimates (dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...).
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Our free and open source software for estimating property level flood risk under uncertainty now has a peer reviewed software paper!
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
Just published in JOSS: 'UNSAFE: An UNcertain Structure And Fragility Ensemble framework for property-level flood risk estimation' https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.07527
November 13, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Our free and open source software for estimating property level flood risk under uncertainty now has a peer reviewed software paper!
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social