Sorry, this should still say City 3 - 0 Liverpool

Given the Penalty was missed:
Manchester City 2 - 0 Liverpool
Total xG: 0.81 - 0.71
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 0-0 (18.67%)
2. 0-1 (17.64%)
3. 1-0 (17.30%)
4. 1-1 (16.35%)
5. 2-0 (6.66%)
Match Probability:
Manchester City Win: 33.99%, Draw: 36.89%, Liverpool Win: 29.12%

*Not accounting for potential xG lost after the penalty foul (i.e. had Hutchinson not gone down, he might have been able to create a chance worth a lot of xG which the model can't account for)

Without the penalty:
Nottingham Forest 2 - 1 Leeds
Total xG: 1.76 - 0.73
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 2-0 (15.03%)
2. 1-0 (14.53%)
3. 2-1 (12.82%)
4. 1-1 (12.39%)
5. 3-0 (7.85%)
Match Probability:
Nottingham Forest Win: 65.45%, Draw: 22.38%, Leeds Win: 12.17%