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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 1d

Decisive and sustained pressure by Trump on Netanyahu in the near term, and a national election in the longer term.

Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 1d

As I've written, Netanyahu is not accountable to the Israeli majority. On core issue after core issue, he has governed for the radical 30%, which is why most Israelis want him gone:

Why 70 Percent of Israelis Want Netanyahu to Resign

The Israeli prime minister ignores the views of the majority of his people.

www.theatlantic.com

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 1d

Yet another poll finding the same thing polls have found for months: 66% of Israelis want to end the war, 69% think Netanyahu should resign either now or after the war. www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...

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Reposted by Yair Rosenberg

Evan McMurry @evanmcmurry.theatlantic.com · 1d

@yair-rosenberg.bsky.social: “Trump successfully bullied Netanyahu—and if this latest round of talks is going to get results, he’ll need to do more of it.”

Trump Is Successfully Bullying Netanyahu

The more the president puts the prime minister in his place, the more likely it is that the Gaza war will end.

www.theatlantic.com

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Reposted by Yair Rosenberg

Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 2d

My latest on what is really happening with the Gaza negotiations and what it will take for them to succeed (gift link): www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 2d

It's pretty clear who's the boss in the Trump-Netanyahu relationship.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

Contrary to the spin of Netanyahu’s boosters in Israel and the fulmination of anti-Semites in America, Trump has never been beholden to Netanyahu. The reverse is true: Netanyahu has been beholden to Trump. For years, the Israeli leader has marketed himself to voters as the Trump whisperer and presented his alliance with the mercurial American president as an electoral asset. Netanyahu even festooned buildings with photos of himself with Trump on towering campaign posters across Israel. But these boasts have now become a straitjacket. With Israeli elections scheduled for late 2026—and possibly arriving earlier—the prime minister cannot afford a public feud with the president without refuting his own electoral argument. This means Netanyahu not only has to accept Trump’s diktats; he has to spin them as his own ideas—or risk shattering the myth he has built around himself.

The president fully grasps this dynamic. “I said, ‘Bibi, this is your chance for victory,’” Trump told the Axios reporter Barak Ravid on Saturday. “He was fine with it. He’s got to be fine with it. He has no choice. With me, you got to be fine.” The president’s official rapid-response team then posted that quote on social media, in case anyone had missed the implication.

Trump has not only compelled Netanyahu’s recent about-face on Gaza. Over the past six months, he has forced Netanyahu to abort a major counterstrike in Iran; publicly declared, “I will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank,” dashing the aspirations of the Israeli settler right; negotiated the release of an American hostage from Hamas behind Netanyahu’s back; and made the Israeli leader apologize to Qatar for his recent strike there—after which the White House released a humiliating photo of Netanyahu’s phone call of contrition. This week, he signed an executive order granting NATO-level security guarantees to Qatar, the longtime hosts and patrons of the Hamas leadership abroad. Trump has also repeatedly amplified and praised the Israelis protesting against the Netanyahu government and in favor of a hostage deal.

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 2d

My latest on what is really happening with the Gaza negotiations and what it will take for them to succeed (gift link): www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 4d

Looks like Trump is accepting Hamas's offer to negotiate the details of his proposal and wants to get the hostages out while that happens. It's past midnight in Israel on Shabbat, hope Bibi's up!

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 4d

In short: Hamas said they won't release the hostages within 72 hours, they won't disarm, and they want to negotiate over Trump's proposal that he has repeatedly said is non-negotiable. But otherwise, they accepted the plan.

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 4d

Thanks, I should have included that!

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 4d

In case you are wondering, we are here
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 4d

I feel sad that you go through life constantly afraid that secret death squads are coming for you and anyone else for saying the same thing millions of people say without incident every day. It sounds exhausting and depressing.

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 4d

How the conspiratorial race to the bottom works: Marjorie Taylor Greene tweets that she is not suicidal and implies Israel would try to kill her but doesn't name them. Days later, Theo Von just says it straight out, because you need to keep upping the antisemitic ante to shock.

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 6d

I have to watch it yet again, because there's so much there that's prescient. In some ways, one can look at our wild west influencer-dominated discourse as what happens when you have many Stephen Glasses and no Chuck Lanes -- or any editorial oversight structure at all.

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 6d

Both Chuck Lane (Peter Sarsgaard) and Stephen Glass (Hayden Christensen) in Shattered Glass, the best movie about journalist (though the latter, perhaps, is not the ideal model for your purposes).

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 6d

Art of the deal

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 6d

Key point: Trump has more leverage over Netanyahu than any other American president, because Bibi has based his electoral argument on his alliance with Trump. He can't afford to break with Trump without shattering the image he has crafted for himself. But Trump has to actually use that leverage.

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 6d

Trump presented his peace plan as a done deal. But it's not even close. Qatar and Turkey need to get Hamas to agree to things it has refused. Trump must ensure that Netanyahu adheres to the agreement, even if it threatens his coalition. I wrote about what's missing from Trump's plan (gift link):

What’s Missing From Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan

Announcing a peace plan is the easy part. Executing it is much harder.

www.theatlantic.com

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Reposted by Yair Rosenberg

Nick Baumann @nickbaumann.bsky.social · 7d

"The Israeli right has spent decades trying to prevent people from conceiving any alternatives to its ultimate victory," writes @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social: www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

The Real Reason to Recognize Palestine

Absolutists have attempted to kill the two-state solution for years. The international community just called their bluff.

www.theatlantic.com

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 7d

Some settlers can more about living on land they consider holy than who governs it (look up Rabbi Menachem Froman). Many would prefer to move back to Israel. Either option ought to be open.

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 7d

"71% of Israelis back the US framework, the survey finds. Support is particularly high among Arab citizens, with 93% backing the plan." This has been true of every attempt to end the war with a hostage deal for months. Most Israelis and Palestinians want the war to end. The question is leadership.

Survey: Israelis support Trump plan, but are skeptical it will be implemented

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 7d

"The Israeli right has spent decades trying to prevent people from conceiving any alternatives to its ultimate victory. The countries now recognizing a Palestinian state and committing themselves to the prospect are rejecting that premise and denying the settler right’s attempt at a fait accompli."

The Real Reason to Recognize Palestine

Absolutists have attempted to kill the two-state solution for years. The international community just called their bluff.

www.theatlantic.com

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 7d

Palestinian recognition is symbolic and will have little immediate impact on the ground. But in the long term, it could have dramatic consequences for Israel's relationship with the world. I wrote about the real reason Palestinian statehood recognition matters. Gift link to full story:

The Real Reason to Recognize Palestine

Absolutists have attempted to kill the two-state solution for years. The international community just called their bluff.

www.theatlantic.com

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 8d

Back in July, I wrote that getting anywhere on a lasting Gaza deal would require Trump to "disown his biggest blunder" of Gaz-a-Lago. We'll see if the new position holds, but the position matters.

The Worst-Kept Secret of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Trump turned a far-right fantasy—ethnic cleansing in Gaza—into U.S. policy. He needs to reject it.

www.theatlantic.com

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 8d

Notable from Trump's Gaza plan: It's the first time he's officially repudiated his prior proposal to empty out the Strip to build his "Riviera on the Middle East." That plan emboldened Israel's settler right seeking to ethnically cleanse Gaza. Now Trump says Gazans should stay.

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