Jonathan Todd
@yontodd.bsky.social
📈📉 US markets/macro/Fed/housing (everything here = own). 🗣️ Learning French with very modest success (Intermediate/B1). 📍Chicago, formerly UWS/Boston/Nashville/LA, always very Californian.
November 12, 2025 at 6:04 PM
F1 team valuations moving like AI lab valuations - but with far superior fundamentals www.ft.com/content/c808...
November 11, 2025 at 6:50 PM
F1 team valuations moving like AI lab valuations - but with far superior fundamentals www.ft.com/content/c808...
And oh by the way the vacancy rate fell for the first time in 2024 in a decade
www.chicagobusiness.com/commercial-r...
www.chicagobusiness.com/commercial-r...
November 11, 2025 at 2:02 PM
And oh by the way the vacancy rate fell for the first time in 2024 in a decade
www.chicagobusiness.com/commercial-r...
www.chicagobusiness.com/commercial-r...
David Sacks said no AI bailouts - but he didn't say no equity stakes [finger tapping head gif]
November 6, 2025 at 5:04 PM
David Sacks said no AI bailouts - but he didn't say no equity stakes [finger tapping head gif]
This NCAA conference expansion has gone too far
November 4, 2025 at 2:54 PM
This NCAA conference expansion has gone too far
October 31, 2025 at 4:24 PM
This Martin Wolf column offering some quantifying evidence that populism in all forms is economically corrosive... excellent work.
October 22, 2025 at 3:54 PM
This Martin Wolf column offering some quantifying evidence that populism in all forms is economically corrosive... excellent work.
TRUMP: GASOLINE PRICES WILL DROP BELOW $2 SOON
This is a simplistic analysis but $2 a gallon gas is consistent with WTI under ~$45 a barrel (or about 28% below current levels).
Oh, and recessions.
This is a simplistic analysis but $2 a gallon gas is consistent with WTI under ~$45 a barrel (or about 28% below current levels).
Oh, and recessions.
October 9, 2025 at 4:35 PM
TRUMP: GASOLINE PRICES WILL DROP BELOW $2 SOON
This is a simplistic analysis but $2 a gallon gas is consistent with WTI under ~$45 a barrel (or about 28% below current levels).
Oh, and recessions.
This is a simplistic analysis but $2 a gallon gas is consistent with WTI under ~$45 a barrel (or about 28% below current levels).
Oh, and recessions.
One point for the Saravelos call of hedged dollar US equity buying, which seems very much alive and well
themarketear.com/posts/cpF0Z6...
themarketear.com/posts/cpF0Z6...
October 7, 2025 at 2:30 PM
One point for the Saravelos call of hedged dollar US equity buying, which seems very much alive and well
themarketear.com/posts/cpF0Z6...
themarketear.com/posts/cpF0Z6...
Current status: Reading the hard copy of the FT Weekend at Chuck E. Cheese
October 4, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Current status: Reading the hard copy of the FT Weekend at Chuck E. Cheese
The Community Adjusted EBITDA approach to the Taylor Rule
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
September 22, 2025 at 4:19 PM
The Community Adjusted EBITDA approach to the Taylor Rule
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Only one of those European forward yields moving in the right direction. Wild out there. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-glob...
September 15, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Only one of those European forward yields moving in the right direction. Wild out there. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-glob...
"The French luxury groups that dominate the CAC-40 index derive less than 10% of their revenues from France, and most of them trade at a lower multiple than US fast-food chains." www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
I had to verify this is true, and it is. LVMH vs MCD
I had to verify this is true, and it is. LVMH vs MCD
September 11, 2025 at 10:55 AM
"The French luxury groups that dominate the CAC-40 index derive less than 10% of their revenues from France, and most of them trade at a lower multiple than US fast-food chains." www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
I had to verify this is true, and it is. LVMH vs MCD
I had to verify this is true, and it is. LVMH vs MCD
Status check: Firearms and gold leading the markets today
September 5, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Status check: Firearms and gold leading the markets today
That's one way to shift out of the low hiring/low firing labor market, I suppose
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/09/are-...
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/09/are-...
September 4, 2025 at 3:24 PM
That's one way to shift out of the low hiring/low firing labor market, I suppose
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/09/are-...
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/09/are-...
J'adore tous ces hommes
September 2, 2025 at 6:45 PM
J'adore tous ces hommes
August 28, 2025 at 4:34 PM
See, here's the thing about that Allison Schrager column, it's way more nuanced than saying "nobody wants to live in cities anymore"
Overall, Chicago lost 1.5% of its population between 2018-23. But look at it by neighborhood!
The densest, most urban places saw population *growth* over that period
Overall, Chicago lost 1.5% of its population between 2018-23. But look at it by neighborhood!
The densest, most urban places saw population *growth* over that period
August 19, 2025 at 6:57 PM
See, here's the thing about that Allison Schrager column, it's way more nuanced than saying "nobody wants to live in cities anymore"
Overall, Chicago lost 1.5% of its population between 2018-23. But look at it by neighborhood!
The densest, most urban places saw population *growth* over that period
Overall, Chicago lost 1.5% of its population between 2018-23. But look at it by neighborhood!
The densest, most urban places saw population *growth* over that period
Antoni: Let's pause payrolls data
Market: ...
Market: ...
August 12, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Antoni: Let's pause payrolls data
Market: ...
Market: ...
That's pretty jarring. That doesn't really strike me as something that is mean-reverting and seems more rate/economy regime-based. Which means that can probably get ugly quickly.
August 6, 2025 at 6:41 PM
That's pretty jarring. That doesn't really strike me as something that is mean-reverting and seems more rate/economy regime-based. Which means that can probably get ugly quickly.
That’s a really… interesting… qualification
August 5, 2025 at 10:46 PM
That’s a really… interesting… qualification
The 13 biggest companies by market cap that reported this morning are all down
July 29, 2025 at 1:40 PM
The 13 biggest companies by market cap that reported this morning are all down
July 11, 2025 at 1:47 PM
"You're both just... awful"
July 11, 2025 at 1:10 PM
"You're both just... awful"