My latest at @foreignpolicy.com explains why dollar-backed stablecoins are economic challenge and political threat viewed by the CPC. I show China's evolving policies towards blockchain and crypto. I also explain how China is most likely to respond. foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/19/c...

Exciting news: GOD, GUNS, and SEDITION is out today in paperback!

My @cfr.org and @columbiaup.bsky.social book, co-authored with @hoffmanbruce.bsky.social, tells the story of far-right terrorism in America and beyond—a topic that sadly remains as relevant as ever. bookshop.org/p/books/god-...

I am happy that the paperback of "Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions" is now available! Get a copy and chat with me, or to impress your in-laws! 😊 a.co/d/al0rW31

Unemployment could rise but in a country where factories are already highly automated, the political fallout is likely to be muted. China has withstood worse. SoE reforms led to over 76 million workers being laid off in 1992-2002. A new wave of layoffs is unlikely to shake the CPC’s grip on power.

Trump’s tariffs sting and China’s leaders know it. They could hit China’s low-value-added light manufacturing particularly hard. But shrinking exports might end up benefiting China by accelerating industrial consolidation, forcing laggards out of the game, and improving efficiency.

My latest piece @projectsyndicate.bsky.social explains China's sentiment to Trump's tariffs. BJ views it has weathered it well and emerged more confident, more self-reliant, and more convinced its long game is paying off. Trump's tariffs have also turbocharged China's tech ambitions.

Next on our Forward Thinkers list is @zoe-liu.bsky.social, Senior Fellow for China Studies @cfr.org.

Giving China a stake in Ukraine’s reconstruction could transform it from a passive pro-Russia bystander into an active participant in peacemaking, write @zoe-liu.bsky.social and Thomas Graham.

Re President Xi's state visit to Russia, my colleague @cfr.org Tom Graham and I wrote @projectsyndicate.bsky.social on China's role in Ukraine. Trump said Xi can help end the war. We beg the difference. We show why China is needed for an enduring peace but cannot swiftly deliver an end to the war.

What's happening with the trade war and geopolitical competition with China?

Next on the @csis.org Capital Cable #112 featuring:

▪️ @zoe-liu.bsky.social
▪️ Evan Medeiros
▪️ @victordcha.bsky.social
▪️ Mark Lippert

📆 5/8 • 9:30 am EDT

Watch here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQlb...

But what may cause China to blink? www.cfr.org/blog/what-ma...

Several news stories today report that China is signaling openness to trade talks, which fits with patterns of Chinese diplomacy. As I wrote recently: "Beijing has shown a strong capacity for retaliation and a tactical openness to negotiation, but not a willingness to kowtow."

And as a result of the party’s control over information, particularly regarding foreign affairs, any encounter with the Trump administration can be framed domestically as Xi standing firm against foreign bullying. @cfr.org www.foreignaffairs.com/china/how-ch...

As I argued in my latest @foreignaffairs.com article, the concentration of authority allows the Chinese leader to make sweeping policy decisions unchallenged and to reverse course just as swiftly. Re"China signals opening for trade talks with US" on.ft.com/4d7EovN

Beijing has spent years preparing for an economic confrontation with Washington, writes @zoe-liu.bsky.social. “Unlike during the first Trump administration, China is now, if necessary, ready to decouple from the United States.”

"the United States will always run a trade deficit with China because Americans have no desire to reclaim low-end manufacturing jobs from Chinese factories. The challenge Trump faces is how to structure that deficit in a politically durable way"

My latest @foreignaffairs.com I explain why this time Beijing, if necessary, is ready to decouple from the US. Chinese leadership harbor no illusion that China can win a trade war with the US. But they are willing to risk one that Trump might lose. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/how-ch...

I recently had the privilege of joining @bilalhafeez.bsky.social on Macro Hive to discuss a wide range of issues in the context of US-China trade tensions. I enjoyed the conversation greatly! We covered how, why, and broader implications. Check it out and share with me your thoughts! 🙂 @cfr.org

At a @cfr.org briefing with my distinguished colleagues, I explained how China’s leadership is prepared to respond to rising trade tensions despite not wanting a trade war and why China has the flexibility to pivot quickly. youtube.com/shorts/RtuYb...

@adamposen.bsky.social convincingly explains why the Trump admin may have chosen to go to an unwinnable trade war. "U.S. economy will suffer more than the Chinese economy will, and the suffering will only increase if the United States escalates." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

I had the privilege to write for The International Economy amid other prominent thinkers discussing the proposed Mar-a-Lago Accord. I argue it is not a magic wand. As it is envisioned, it is unlikely to achieve the desired goal of trade rebalance. Full collection in pdf:

I hope leaders of "great powers" can take the time to visit grocery stores as normal people. I hope they realize that people's day-to-day life and paychecks and bills are NOT negligible accounting numbers that can be rounded down.

Recent events made me think of a @foreignpolicy.com piece I wrote in 2022 on how China prepares for an economic war. While this piece has aged well, I am not happy. I am saddened normal people & businesses are becoming collateral damages in great power competitions. foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/16/c...