Many had it wrong
For projections to be useful, they need to be #leastwrong
Ours at @fssau.futuresmart.com.au have been on track for well over a decade
bsky.app/profile/prof...
For projections to be useful, they need to be #leastwrong
Ours at @fssau.futuresmart.com.au have been on track for well over a decade
bsky.app/profile/prof...
November 4, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Many had it wrong
For projections to be useful, they need to be #leastwrong
Ours at @fssau.futuresmart.com.au have been on track for well over a decade
bsky.app/profile/prof...
For projections to be useful, they need to be #leastwrong
Ours at @fssau.futuresmart.com.au have been on track for well over a decade
bsky.app/profile/prof...
November 24, 2024 at 1:20 AM
heh heh
To reflect on IEA motives of the day, they never intended to provide projections, really just provided estimates based on the informed opinion of their best fossil fuel experts expectations of what solar would do 😬
And here's what our #leastwrong looks like🤓
bsky.app/profile/fssa...
To reflect on IEA motives of the day, they never intended to provide projections, really just provided estimates based on the informed opinion of their best fossil fuel experts expectations of what solar would do 😬
And here's what our #leastwrong looks like🤓
bsky.app/profile/fssa...
We at @fssau.bsky.social running projections since 2012
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right
Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right
Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
December 19, 2024 at 10:52 AM
heh heh
To reflect on IEA motives of the day, they never intended to provide projections, really just provided estimates based on the informed opinion of their best fossil fuel experts expectations of what solar would do 😬
And here's what our #leastwrong looks like🤓
bsky.app/profile/fssa...
To reflect on IEA motives of the day, they never intended to provide projections, really just provided estimates based on the informed opinion of their best fossil fuel experts expectations of what solar would do 😬
And here's what our #leastwrong looks like🤓
bsky.app/profile/fssa...
To reflect on IEA motives of the day over time, IEA never intended to provide future projections of solar, really just looking to offer forward estimates based on informed opinion of their best fossil fuel experts expectations of what solar would do 😬
Versus what our #leastwrong looks like 🤓
Versus what our #leastwrong looks like 🤓
December 24, 2024 at 7:43 AM
We at @fssau.bsky.social running projections since 2012
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right
Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right
Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
November 24, 2024 at 1:12 AM
We at @fssau.bsky.social running projections since 2012
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right
Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right
Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
That renewables growth is all because of wind and especially solar growth - and coming battery tsunami
It's ok, I'm not crazy
And our @fssau.futuresmart.com.au global projections have been #leastwrong
bsky.app/profile/prof...
It's ok, I'm not crazy
And our @fssau.futuresmart.com.au global projections have been #leastwrong
bsky.app/profile/prof...
May 24, 2025 at 1:00 PM
That renewables growth is all because of wind and especially solar growth - and coming battery tsunami
It's ok, I'm not crazy
And our @fssau.futuresmart.com.au global projections have been #leastwrong
bsky.app/profile/prof...
It's ok, I'm not crazy
And our @fssau.futuresmart.com.au global projections have been #leastwrong
bsky.app/profile/prof...
November 27, 2024 at 2:15 AM
I identify as a futurist
My pronouns are Told/You/So
I am generally pretty good at it
But I don't claim to be exactly right - I'm generally just #leastwrong
I predict this headline from yesterday will be repeated next Monday
But the cars will all point in the opposite direction 🤯
#urbanism+
My pronouns are Told/You/So
I am generally pretty good at it
But I don't claim to be exactly right - I'm generally just #leastwrong
I predict this headline from yesterday will be repeated next Monday
But the cars will all point in the opposite direction 🤯
#urbanism+
January 25, 2025 at 6:45 AM
I identify as a futurist
My pronouns are Told/You/So
I am generally pretty good at it
But I don't claim to be exactly right - I'm generally just #leastwrong
I predict this headline from yesterday will be repeated next Monday
But the cars will all point in the opposite direction 🤯
#urbanism+
My pronouns are Told/You/So
I am generally pretty good at it
But I don't claim to be exactly right - I'm generally just #leastwrong
I predict this headline from yesterday will be repeated next Monday
But the cars will all point in the opposite direction 🤯
#urbanism+
We at @fssau.bsky.social running projections since 2012
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right
Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right
Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
May 10, 2025 at 10:39 AM
I identify as a futurist
My pronouns are Told/You/So
Exhibit 1: I've attached a post from the other place
(from 2017)
#leastwrong
My pronouns are Told/You/So
Exhibit 1: I've attached a post from the other place
(from 2017)
#leastwrong
December 11, 2024 at 8:02 AM
I identify as a futurist
My pronouns are Told/You/So
Exhibit 1: I've attached a post from the other place
(from 2017)
#leastwrong
My pronouns are Told/You/So
Exhibit 1: I've attached a post from the other place
(from 2017)
#leastwrong
Yes, a little
In the same way Harrison Ford has done a little acting 😬
21C jobs are in 21C industries
While my ageing statements below aren't all right, they are mostly #leastwrong
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future
Haven't said much on bsky yet - need to remedy that
In the same way Harrison Ford has done a little acting 😬
21C jobs are in 21C industries
While my ageing statements below aren't all right, they are mostly #leastwrong
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future
Haven't said much on bsky yet - need to remedy that
December 17, 2024 at 2:25 AM
Yes, a little
In the same way Harrison Ford has done a little acting 😬
21C jobs are in 21C industries
While my ageing statements below aren't all right, they are mostly #leastwrong
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future
Haven't said much on bsky yet - need to remedy that
In the same way Harrison Ford has done a little acting 😬
21C jobs are in 21C industries
While my ageing statements below aren't all right, they are mostly #leastwrong
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future
Haven't said much on bsky yet - need to remedy that
ah, I chose a word carefully - 'redundant' doesn't necessarily translate to none trading
but, based on projected changes of car fleet according to my model, I expect up to half urban petrol closed by 2035, and >80% closed by 2039
model includes assumption of autonomy impacting car fleet
but, based on projected changes of car fleet according to my model, I expect up to half urban petrol closed by 2035, and >80% closed by 2039
model includes assumption of autonomy impacting car fleet
May 15, 2025 at 12:08 AM
ah, I chose a word carefully - 'redundant' doesn't necessarily translate to none trading
but, based on projected changes of car fleet according to my model, I expect up to half urban petrol closed by 2035, and >80% closed by 2039
model includes assumption of autonomy impacting car fleet
but, based on projected changes of car fleet according to my model, I expect up to half urban petrol closed by 2035, and >80% closed by 2039
model includes assumption of autonomy impacting car fleet
Check out graphs in this post
2nd graph solar/wind to 2022 looks excitingly quick, yeh?
3rd graph shows barely a blip compared to coming acceleration!
Maybe have a listen to my explanation in linked tedtalk - presented 2017, projections still on the money in 2025
#leastwrong
bsky.app/profile/prof...
2nd graph solar/wind to 2022 looks excitingly quick, yeh?
3rd graph shows barely a blip compared to coming acceleration!
Maybe have a listen to my explanation in linked tedtalk - presented 2017, projections still on the money in 2025
#leastwrong
bsky.app/profile/prof...
What if solar panels were just a consumer item?
Like a TV set?
Distributed solar on our rooftop
where we live
disrupting centralised electricity
generated somewhere else
4.6b solar panels made since 2008
Future of energy - my 2017 #TedTalk
youtu.be/QmR_6QMCP0g?...
Like a TV set?
Distributed solar on our rooftop
where we live
disrupting centralised electricity
generated somewhere else
4.6b solar panels made since 2008
Future of energy - my 2017 #TedTalk
youtu.be/QmR_6QMCP0g?...
January 11, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Check out graphs in this post
2nd graph solar/wind to 2022 looks excitingly quick, yeh?
3rd graph shows barely a blip compared to coming acceleration!
Maybe have a listen to my explanation in linked tedtalk - presented 2017, projections still on the money in 2025
#leastwrong
bsky.app/profile/prof...
2nd graph solar/wind to 2022 looks excitingly quick, yeh?
3rd graph shows barely a blip compared to coming acceleration!
Maybe have a listen to my explanation in linked tedtalk - presented 2017, projections still on the money in 2025
#leastwrong
bsky.app/profile/prof...
A “tidal wave” of big batteries and record amount of new solar and wind are joining forces to drive down electricity prices and deliver Australia more than 82% renewables by 2030
Solar and wind was the earthquake
Batteries are the tsunami
#leastwrong
reneweconomy.com.au/tidal-wave-o...
Solar and wind was the earthquake
Batteries are the tsunami
#leastwrong
reneweconomy.com.au/tidal-wave-o...
December 17, 2024 at 8:36 AM
A “tidal wave” of big batteries and record amount of new solar and wind are joining forces to drive down electricity prices and deliver Australia more than 82% renewables by 2030
Solar and wind was the earthquake
Batteries are the tsunami
#leastwrong
reneweconomy.com.au/tidal-wave-o...
Solar and wind was the earthquake
Batteries are the tsunami
#leastwrong
reneweconomy.com.au/tidal-wave-o...
Australia end 2024
34 battery facilities
Capacity 4,504MW/ 7,510MWh
770GWh sent out 2024
Est. 350,000+ homes/biz batteries end 2024, 4700MWh
Me 2018: necessary cascade of battery tech steps to drive down cost of storage youtu.be/LFyrD4DRwi4
RMI figure on same
#leastwrong
battery price + volume
34 battery facilities
Capacity 4,504MW/ 7,510MWh
770GWh sent out 2024
Est. 350,000+ homes/biz batteries end 2024, 4700MWh
Me 2018: necessary cascade of battery tech steps to drive down cost of storage youtu.be/LFyrD4DRwi4
RMI figure on same
#leastwrong
battery price + volume
January 19, 2025 at 2:38 AM
Australia end 2024
34 battery facilities
Capacity 4,504MW/ 7,510MWh
770GWh sent out 2024
Est. 350,000+ homes/biz batteries end 2024, 4700MWh
Me 2018: necessary cascade of battery tech steps to drive down cost of storage youtu.be/LFyrD4DRwi4
RMI figure on same
#leastwrong
battery price + volume
34 battery facilities
Capacity 4,504MW/ 7,510MWh
770GWh sent out 2024
Est. 350,000+ homes/biz batteries end 2024, 4700MWh
Me 2018: necessary cascade of battery tech steps to drive down cost of storage youtu.be/LFyrD4DRwi4
RMI figure on same
#leastwrong
battery price + volume
Peeps said we were cray cray 🤪
Some still do🤔
Yes, 6 years ago, our @fssau.bsky.social projection a little generous
But, we weren't expecting covid
Nor the fallout in supply chains
#LeastWrong
China's Battery Production Capacity 8.6TWh by 2028 yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-...
Some still do🤔
Yes, 6 years ago, our @fssau.bsky.social projection a little generous
But, we weren't expecting covid
Nor the fallout in supply chains
#LeastWrong
China's Battery Production Capacity 8.6TWh by 2028 yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-...
December 5, 2024 at 9:46 AM
Peeps said we were cray cray 🤪
Some still do🤔
Yes, 6 years ago, our @fssau.bsky.social projection a little generous
But, we weren't expecting covid
Nor the fallout in supply chains
#LeastWrong
China's Battery Production Capacity 8.6TWh by 2028 yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-...
Some still do🤔
Yes, 6 years ago, our @fssau.bsky.social projection a little generous
But, we weren't expecting covid
Nor the fallout in supply chains
#LeastWrong
China's Battery Production Capacity 8.6TWh by 2028 yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-...
Not *everyone* missed solar's exponential growth
#leastwrong
@fssau.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/fssa...
#leastwrong
@fssau.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/fssa...
November 27, 2024 at 2:56 AM
Not *everyone* missed solar's exponential growth
#leastwrong
@fssau.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/fssa...
#leastwrong
@fssau.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/fssa...
We at @fssau.bsky.social running projections since 2012
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right
Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right
Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
December 11, 2024 at 8:10 AM
And the next 5 years?
Looks like this - here's my @fssau.futuresmart.com.au projections released a few months ago to 2030
How can I have confidence?
Well here our projections were #leastwrong in 2018
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Looks like this - here's my @fssau.futuresmart.com.au projections released a few months ago to 2030
How can I have confidence?
Well here our projections were #leastwrong in 2018
bsky.app/profile/prof...
August 13, 2025 at 1:12 PM
And the next 5 years?
Looks like this - here's my @fssau.futuresmart.com.au projections released a few months ago to 2030
How can I have confidence?
Well here our projections were #leastwrong in 2018
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Looks like this - here's my @fssau.futuresmart.com.au projections released a few months ago to 2030
How can I have confidence?
Well here our projections were #leastwrong in 2018
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Our Future Smart Strategies projections of renewable energy transition been close to the mark for much more than a decade 🤔
#leastwrong
@fssau.futuresmart.com.au
bsky.app/profile/prof...
#leastwrong
@fssau.futuresmart.com.au
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Our Future Smart Strategies projections of solar uptake have been within 20% actual solar deployment since 2012 🤔
Actually, ignoring first 2014 projection for 2025, we're within 10%😎
Also, our bullish projections were mostly too low🤯
#leastwrong
@fssau.futuresmart.com.au
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Actually, ignoring first 2014 projection for 2025, we're within 10%😎
Also, our bullish projections were mostly too low🤯
#leastwrong
@fssau.futuresmart.com.au
bsky.app/profile/prof...
May 15, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Our Future Smart Strategies projections of renewable energy transition been close to the mark for much more than a decade 🤔
#leastwrong
@fssau.futuresmart.com.au
bsky.app/profile/prof...
#leastwrong
@fssau.futuresmart.com.au
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Yes, a small rant here- bespeckled in evidence and commonsense and steeped in claims of being #leastwrong
bsky.app/profile/prof...
BTW that rogercook handle is not our WA Premier, but @albomp.bsky.social is official 🤓
bsky.app/profile/prof...
BTW that rogercook handle is not our WA Premier, but @albomp.bsky.social is official 🤓
Companies extracting and selling gas say:
"world must have new gas"
Model projection says we don't
Gas companies only worried about profit, not about the planet
Alternative to burning stuff?
Renewables now in hand, cheapest, easiest, low-emissions energy
We just need to act
bsky.app/profile/prof...
"world must have new gas"
Model projection says we don't
Gas companies only worried about profit, not about the planet
Alternative to burning stuff?
Renewables now in hand, cheapest, easiest, low-emissions energy
We just need to act
bsky.app/profile/prof...
May 29, 2025 at 3:31 AM
Yes, a small rant here- bespeckled in evidence and commonsense and steeped in claims of being #leastwrong
bsky.app/profile/prof...
BTW that rogercook handle is not our WA Premier, but @albomp.bsky.social is official 🤓
bsky.app/profile/prof...
BTW that rogercook handle is not our WA Premier, but @albomp.bsky.social is official 🤓
heh heh, yeh I've been constantly 10% too low
All decent models generally deliberately conservative, mine included.
Just my models #leastwrong 😬
All decent models generally deliberately conservative, mine included.
Just my models #leastwrong 😬
December 20, 2024 at 2:41 AM
heh heh, yeh I've been constantly 10% too low
All decent models generally deliberately conservative, mine included.
Just my models #leastwrong 😬
All decent models generally deliberately conservative, mine included.
Just my models #leastwrong 😬
In any tech changeover,
there's new tech entry,
and old tech exit
Our @profraywills.bsky.social old 2018 #RealBigThings explainer still useful today
Real Big Things #24 23Nov18 - the future of #stuff
Much mostly right, largely #LeastWrong
Full vid youtu.be/3jIgclJl4Zc
there's new tech entry,
and old tech exit
Our @profraywills.bsky.social old 2018 #RealBigThings explainer still useful today
Real Big Things #24 23Nov18 - the future of #stuff
Much mostly right, largely #LeastWrong
Full vid youtu.be/3jIgclJl4Zc
The Future of Planet Earth: Renewables on the rise – Prof Ray Wills at Real Big Things #24
YouTube video by Real Big Things
youtu.be
November 24, 2024 at 1:39 AM
In any tech changeover,
there's new tech entry,
and old tech exit
Our @profraywills.bsky.social old 2018 #RealBigThings explainer still useful today
Real Big Things #24 23Nov18 - the future of #stuff
Much mostly right, largely #LeastWrong
Full vid youtu.be/3jIgclJl4Zc
there's new tech entry,
and old tech exit
Our @profraywills.bsky.social old 2018 #RealBigThings explainer still useful today
Real Big Things #24 23Nov18 - the future of #stuff
Much mostly right, largely #LeastWrong
Full vid youtu.be/3jIgclJl4Zc
In 2016, China's 13th 5 year plan commited to reduce emissions
In 2020, China's President Xi commits to 'emissions peak before 2030'
Well 2024 is before 2030, yeh?
Just 6 years early
Who'd 'v thunk it?
I did, but then, that's my job
#leastwrong
Indeed, would've handed in my baggy green if I hadn't
In 2020, China's President Xi commits to 'emissions peak before 2030'
Well 2024 is before 2030, yeh?
Just 6 years early
Who'd 'v thunk it?
I did, but then, that's my job
#leastwrong
Indeed, would've handed in my baggy green if I hadn't
January 27, 2025 at 3:41 AM
In 2016, China's 13th 5 year plan commited to reduce emissions
In 2020, China's President Xi commits to 'emissions peak before 2030'
Well 2024 is before 2030, yeh?
Just 6 years early
Who'd 'v thunk it?
I did, but then, that's my job
#leastwrong
Indeed, would've handed in my baggy green if I hadn't
In 2020, China's President Xi commits to 'emissions peak before 2030'
Well 2024 is before 2030, yeh?
Just 6 years early
Who'd 'v thunk it?
I did, but then, that's my job
#leastwrong
Indeed, would've handed in my baggy green if I hadn't
Oh, no!
2025 headlines matching my fruitloop rantings of last year*
- 100% renewables possible in Australia by 2030
(*actually, well before then)
Huge growth in solar generation already puts Aus on fast track to a 100% renewable future
#leastwrong
www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2025/05/27/s...
2025 headlines matching my fruitloop rantings of last year*
- 100% renewables possible in Australia by 2030
(*actually, well before then)
Huge growth in solar generation already puts Aus on fast track to a 100% renewable future
#leastwrong
www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2025/05/27/s...
May 27, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Oh, no!
2025 headlines matching my fruitloop rantings of last year*
- 100% renewables possible in Australia by 2030
(*actually, well before then)
Huge growth in solar generation already puts Aus on fast track to a 100% renewable future
#leastwrong
www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2025/05/27/s...
2025 headlines matching my fruitloop rantings of last year*
- 100% renewables possible in Australia by 2030
(*actually, well before then)
Huge growth in solar generation already puts Aus on fast track to a 100% renewable future
#leastwrong
www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2025/05/27/s...