Prof Ray Wills
@profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Futurist
Disruption
Ag, biz, cities, climate, ecology, economy, energy, renewables, robots, tech, transport
World Top100 Sustainability
MD Future Smart Strategies™
Prof UWA
Be Good
(I only follow accounts with name+pic+profile + poke me!)
Disruption
Ag, biz, cities, climate, ecology, economy, energy, renewables, robots, tech, transport
World Top100 Sustainability
MD Future Smart Strategies™
Prof UWA
Be Good
(I only follow accounts with name+pic+profile + poke me!)
Pinned
Reposted by Prof Ray Wills
Reposted by Prof Ray Wills
We’re building a generation of apartments in Australia that are not designed for our warming climate.
Too much glass. Not enough shade.
(This resident’s energy bills are also $300/month!)
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...
Too much glass. Not enough shade.
(This resident’s energy bills are also $300/month!)
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...
January 17, 2026 at 7:33 AM
We’re building a generation of apartments in Australia that are not designed for our warming climate.
Too much glass. Not enough shade.
(This resident’s energy bills are also $300/month!)
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...
Too much glass. Not enough shade.
(This resident’s energy bills are also $300/month!)
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...
And it wasn't the Nobel Prize
That's not transferrable, and is the Nobel Committee's sole responsibility to award
The physical medal is merely a symbolic item that accompanies the award; laureates may keep, donate, sell, or give it away doesn't change who is recognized as the recipient in history
That's not transferrable, and is the Nobel Committee's sole responsibility to award
The physical medal is merely a symbolic item that accompanies the award; laureates may keep, donate, sell, or give it away doesn't change who is recognized as the recipient in history
January 16, 2026 at 11:02 PM
And it wasn't the Nobel Prize
That's not transferrable, and is the Nobel Committee's sole responsibility to award
The physical medal is merely a symbolic item that accompanies the award; laureates may keep, donate, sell, or give it away doesn't change who is recognized as the recipient in history
That's not transferrable, and is the Nobel Committee's sole responsibility to award
The physical medal is merely a symbolic item that accompanies the award; laureates may keep, donate, sell, or give it away doesn't change who is recognized as the recipient in history
ANCAP’s crash tests are proving electric cars to be the safest vehicles in Australia
Battery-powered models make up 6 / 7 strongest crash test performers
Surprise: highly flammable liquids (petrol and diesel) in ICE are much more likely to catch fire than electric cars
thedriven.io/2026/01/16/w...
Battery-powered models make up 6 / 7 strongest crash test performers
Surprise: highly flammable liquids (petrol and diesel) in ICE are much more likely to catch fire than electric cars
thedriven.io/2026/01/16/w...
Want a safe car? Crash tests say you should go electric
Electric cars are proving to be the safest vehicles in Australia, with battery-powered models making up six of the seven strongest crash test performers.
thedriven.io
January 16, 2026 at 10:28 AM
ANCAP’s crash tests are proving electric cars to be the safest vehicles in Australia
Battery-powered models make up 6 / 7 strongest crash test performers
Surprise: highly flammable liquids (petrol and diesel) in ICE are much more likely to catch fire than electric cars
thedriven.io/2026/01/16/w...
Battery-powered models make up 6 / 7 strongest crash test performers
Surprise: highly flammable liquids (petrol and diesel) in ICE are much more likely to catch fire than electric cars
thedriven.io/2026/01/16/w...
Pretty much same thing Howard Gov did with Holden, Ford, Toyota, Mitsubishi, other foreign makers in Aus with protections like subsidies and tariffs and avoided shift to greener tech
Delayed adaptation cemented long-term decline
Holden then built 8 cylinder Pontiac to "save exports"
Delayed adaptation cemented long-term decline
Holden then built 8 cylinder Pontiac to "save exports"
January 16, 2026 at 9:32 AM
Pretty much same thing Howard Gov did with Holden, Ford, Toyota, Mitsubishi, other foreign makers in Aus with protections like subsidies and tariffs and avoided shift to greener tech
Delayed adaptation cemented long-term decline
Holden then built 8 cylinder Pontiac to "save exports"
Delayed adaptation cemented long-term decline
Holden then built 8 cylinder Pontiac to "save exports"
This is more than just changing energy sources: the change impacts global shipping of about one third of the world merchant ship fleet that carry fossil fuels – around 12,500 tankers for oil and gas, and around 10,400 bulk carriers shipping coal.
January 16, 2026 at 7:30 AM
This is more than just changing energy sources: the change impacts global shipping of about one third of the world merchant ship fleet that carry fossil fuels – around 12,500 tankers for oil and gas, and around 10,400 bulk carriers shipping coal.
In swap from fossil fuels to PV/ EVs/ clean tech, global total materials demand falls! 🤯
Electrifying everything means world needs less energy
Doing it with renewables means the world needs less materials
The biggest tonnage is coal
A FUD-fighting thread
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Electrifying everything means world needs less energy
Doing it with renewables means the world needs less materials
The biggest tonnage is coal
A FUD-fighting thread
bsky.app/profile/prof...
FUD fighter
In swap from fossil fuels to PV/ EVs/ clean tech, global total materials demand falls!
Big % change off tiny base on resources less used before
But much bigger falls in stuff we won't need
Compare 8b ton coal, 550m ton oil (± to scale)
+ clean tech resources in waste stream valuable!
In swap from fossil fuels to PV/ EVs/ clean tech, global total materials demand falls!
Big % change off tiny base on resources less used before
But much bigger falls in stuff we won't need
Compare 8b ton coal, 550m ton oil (± to scale)
+ clean tech resources in waste stream valuable!
January 16, 2026 at 7:21 AM
In swap from fossil fuels to PV/ EVs/ clean tech, global total materials demand falls! 🤯
Electrifying everything means world needs less energy
Doing it with renewables means the world needs less materials
The biggest tonnage is coal
A FUD-fighting thread
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Electrifying everything means world needs less energy
Doing it with renewables means the world needs less materials
The biggest tonnage is coal
A FUD-fighting thread
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Reposted by Prof Ray Wills
Technology gains mean that one ship load of solar #PV panels is now worth more to the grid than 120 #coal carriers, or 57 #LNG tankers.
One ship loaded with solar PV is now worth more to the grid than 120 coal-carriers
Technology gains mean that one ship load of solar PV panels is now worth more to the grid than 120 coal carriers, or 57 LNG tankers.
reneweconomy.com.au
January 15, 2026 at 11:52 PM
IEA estimate of solar offsetting shiploads of coal based on 2023 data
Since then, tech improves, and in 2026, effectiveness of clean energy shiploads is up by up to 15%
But, efficiency of a ship full of coal or gas remains static
reneweconomy.com.au/one-ship-loa... @reneweconomy.com.au
Since then, tech improves, and in 2026, effectiveness of clean energy shiploads is up by up to 15%
But, efficiency of a ship full of coal or gas remains static
reneweconomy.com.au/one-ship-loa... @reneweconomy.com.au
January 16, 2026 at 7:12 AM
IEA estimate of solar offsetting shiploads of coal based on 2023 data
Since then, tech improves, and in 2026, effectiveness of clean energy shiploads is up by up to 15%
But, efficiency of a ship full of coal or gas remains static
reneweconomy.com.au/one-ship-loa... @reneweconomy.com.au
Since then, tech improves, and in 2026, effectiveness of clean energy shiploads is up by up to 15%
But, efficiency of a ship full of coal or gas remains static
reneweconomy.com.au/one-ship-loa... @reneweconomy.com.au
Solar: The Fastest Energy Transition Ever
Webinar
How did this happen?
Is an even faster transition be possible?
What has driven solar’s rapid rise
Can emerging clean technologies go faster?
Thur, 22 Jan 2026, 1:00 PM AEST
www.eit.edu.au/event/solar-...
Webinar
How did this happen?
Is an even faster transition be possible?
What has driven solar’s rapid rise
Can emerging clean technologies go faster?
Thur, 22 Jan 2026, 1:00 PM AEST
www.eit.edu.au/event/solar-...
Solar: The Fastest Energy Transition Ever
Solar is the fastest energy transition in human history. How did this happen and could an even faster transition be possible? This session explores the forces behind solar’s rapid rise, the crucial ro...
www.eit.edu.au
January 15, 2026 at 11:24 PM
Solar: The Fastest Energy Transition Ever
Webinar
How did this happen?
Is an even faster transition be possible?
What has driven solar’s rapid rise
Can emerging clean technologies go faster?
Thur, 22 Jan 2026, 1:00 PM AEST
www.eit.edu.au/event/solar-...
Webinar
How did this happen?
Is an even faster transition be possible?
What has driven solar’s rapid rise
Can emerging clean technologies go faster?
Thur, 22 Jan 2026, 1:00 PM AEST
www.eit.edu.au/event/solar-...
Here's my most recent projection to 2030 for electricity generation
And a link to some of my old (2018) and new (2025) projections
bsky.app/profile/prof...
And a link to some of my old (2018) and new (2025) projections
bsky.app/profile/prof...
January 15, 2026 at 11:39 AM
Here's my most recent projection to 2030 for electricity generation
And a link to some of my old (2018) and new (2025) projections
bsky.app/profile/prof...
And a link to some of my old (2018) and new (2025) projections
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Reposted by Prof Ray Wills
👀 good. LNP clueless. They don't even understand that those data centres they want are already showing that battery tech is the only thing which has the flexibility to keep them running well.
Best they not have to play with tech any more. Dangerous. Take their phones.
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Best they not have to play with tech any more. Dangerous. Take their phones.
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Australia utility batteries and dispatch at 15 Jan 2026
NEM battery
53 Facilities; Capacity 8,872MW/ 15,175MWh
1697GWh 12months dispatch
WA WEM battery
6 Facilities; Capacity 1,385MW/ 5,367MWh
652GWh 12months dispatch
Total Australia batter
59 Facilities; Capacity: 10,257MW/ 20,542MWh\2350GWh
NEM battery
53 Facilities; Capacity 8,872MW/ 15,175MWh
1697GWh 12months dispatch
WA WEM battery
6 Facilities; Capacity 1,385MW/ 5,367MWh
652GWh 12months dispatch
Total Australia batter
59 Facilities; Capacity: 10,257MW/ 20,542MWh\2350GWh
January 15, 2026 at 6:24 AM
👀 good. LNP clueless. They don't even understand that those data centres they want are already showing that battery tech is the only thing which has the flexibility to keep them running well.
Best they not have to play with tech any more. Dangerous. Take their phones.
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Best they not have to play with tech any more. Dangerous. Take their phones.
bsky.app/profile/prof...
yup, updating that data is a project for this month ...
185,000 units added under Cheaper Home Battery Program (CHBP), 4.3 GWh of capacity added to date
185,000 units added under Cheaper Home Battery Program (CHBP), 4.3 GWh of capacity added to date
January 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM
yup, updating that data is a project for this month ...
185,000 units added under Cheaper Home Battery Program (CHBP), 4.3 GWh of capacity added to date
185,000 units added under Cheaper Home Battery Program (CHBP), 4.3 GWh of capacity added to date
Thats a really informative graph!
January 15, 2026 at 6:23 AM
Thats a really informative graph!
Australia utility batteries and dispatch at 15 Jan 2026
NEM battery
53 Facilities; Capacity 8,872MW/ 15,175MWh
1697GWh 12months dispatch
WA WEM battery
6 Facilities; Capacity 1,385MW/ 5,367MWh
652GWh 12months dispatch
Total Australia batter
59 Facilities; Capacity: 10,257MW/ 20,542MWh\2350GWh
NEM battery
53 Facilities; Capacity 8,872MW/ 15,175MWh
1697GWh 12months dispatch
WA WEM battery
6 Facilities; Capacity 1,385MW/ 5,367MWh
652GWh 12months dispatch
Total Australia batter
59 Facilities; Capacity: 10,257MW/ 20,542MWh\2350GWh
January 15, 2026 at 6:08 AM
Australia utility batteries and dispatch at 15 Jan 2026
NEM battery
53 Facilities; Capacity 8,872MW/ 15,175MWh
1697GWh 12months dispatch
WA WEM battery
6 Facilities; Capacity 1,385MW/ 5,367MWh
652GWh 12months dispatch
Total Australia batter
59 Facilities; Capacity: 10,257MW/ 20,542MWh\2350GWh
NEM battery
53 Facilities; Capacity 8,872MW/ 15,175MWh
1697GWh 12months dispatch
WA WEM battery
6 Facilities; Capacity 1,385MW/ 5,367MWh
652GWh 12months dispatch
Total Australia batter
59 Facilities; Capacity: 10,257MW/ 20,542MWh\2350GWh
Probably the best skeptical analysis I’ve seen on the donut announcement so far!
Investigating Donut Lab's Solid State Battery Surprise
YouTube video by Miss GoElectric Industry
youtu.be
January 15, 2026 at 4:22 AM
The long term big structural change is clearly a continuing rise of renewables versus a gradual decline of fossil fuels - particularly a rapid erosion of coal
Annual weather variations are playing with the short term data driving the observed demand rebound in coal‑fired gen
Annual weather variations are playing with the short term data driving the observed demand rebound in coal‑fired gen
January 15, 2026 at 3:23 AM
The long term big structural change is clearly a continuing rise of renewables versus a gradual decline of fossil fuels - particularly a rapid erosion of coal
Annual weather variations are playing with the short term data driving the observed demand rebound in coal‑fired gen
Annual weather variations are playing with the short term data driving the observed demand rebound in coal‑fired gen
It was the last vestiges of his conscience tearing itself free from his soul and rending internal damage as it did so?
January 15, 2026 at 2:10 AM
It was the last vestiges of his conscience tearing itself free from his soul and rending internal damage as it did so?
Reposted by Prof Ray Wills
Dongfeng is selling the Vigo EV for $37,990 in #NewZealand matching the smaller Atto 2 in price and the MGS5 in size
51kwh battery, 340km range, 167kw charging, 750kg towing, seats, steering wheel and rumor of cup holders
Overall spec and safety seem ok if you can see past the name!
51kwh battery, 340km range, 167kw charging, 750kg towing, seats, steering wheel and rumor of cup holders
Overall spec and safety seem ok if you can see past the name!
January 14, 2026 at 10:34 PM
Dongfeng is selling the Vigo EV for $37,990 in #NewZealand matching the smaller Atto 2 in price and the MGS5 in size
51kwh battery, 340km range, 167kw charging, 750kg towing, seats, steering wheel and rumor of cup holders
Overall spec and safety seem ok if you can see past the name!
51kwh battery, 340km range, 167kw charging, 750kg towing, seats, steering wheel and rumor of cup holders
Overall spec and safety seem ok if you can see past the name!
Reposted by Prof Ray Wills
Here's the data:
January 15, 2026 at 1:22 AM
Here's the data:
On one Saturday Shanghai 9PM night there was a very loud Lambo, did 2 bog laps of the block of place I was staying.
Was loud 16 stories up, and with double glazing!
(hard to imagine it was not heard by the gendarmes)
With the number of designer retailers around in the precinct, not surprised
Was loud 16 stories up, and with double glazing!
(hard to imagine it was not heard by the gendarmes)
With the number of designer retailers around in the precinct, not surprised
January 14, 2026 at 11:01 AM
On one Saturday Shanghai 9PM night there was a very loud Lambo, did 2 bog laps of the block of place I was staying.
Was loud 16 stories up, and with double glazing!
(hard to imagine it was not heard by the gendarmes)
With the number of designer retailers around in the precinct, not surprised
Was loud 16 stories up, and with double glazing!
(hard to imagine it was not heard by the gendarmes)
With the number of designer retailers around in the precinct, not surprised
They compete on brand - BMW, Audi, Mercedes, VW, Porsche, Bentley (I saw 2),
January 14, 2026 at 8:44 AM
They compete on brand - BMW, Audi, Mercedes, VW, Porsche, Bentley (I saw 2),
I've travelled to Shanghai a number of times
Trip over xmas was 2 weeks
Eyeball estimates:
EVs on roads 60% (green plates)
ICE on roads 40% (blue plates)
9/10 EVs China made
8/10 ICE foreign brand
Foreign EVs not finding EV China customers?
Or not supplying EVs?
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Trip over xmas was 2 weeks
Eyeball estimates:
EVs on roads 60% (green plates)
ICE on roads 40% (blue plates)
9/10 EVs China made
8/10 ICE foreign brand
Foreign EVs not finding EV China customers?
Or not supplying EVs?
bsky.app/profile/prof...
In Shanghai, everyone can hear you scream
Not that you would scream coz most of the cars are electric - and quiet at low speed
No noise
If you’re in heavy traffic and all the EVs were crawling along, in Australia they'd all be legally noisy
Not in Shanghai
Listen to all that quietness
#EVs 🔊
Not that you would scream coz most of the cars are electric - and quiet at low speed
No noise
If you’re in heavy traffic and all the EVs were crawling along, in Australia they'd all be legally noisy
Not in Shanghai
Listen to all that quietness
#EVs 🔊
January 14, 2026 at 8:20 AM
I've travelled to Shanghai a number of times
Trip over xmas was 2 weeks
Eyeball estimates:
EVs on roads 60% (green plates)
ICE on roads 40% (blue plates)
9/10 EVs China made
8/10 ICE foreign brand
Foreign EVs not finding EV China customers?
Or not supplying EVs?
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Trip over xmas was 2 weeks
Eyeball estimates:
EVs on roads 60% (green plates)
ICE on roads 40% (blue plates)
9/10 EVs China made
8/10 ICE foreign brand
Foreign EVs not finding EV China customers?
Or not supplying EVs?
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Reposted by Prof Ray Wills
Chart admirably demonstrating the climate trend
It's leading to record wildfires, floods, rising seas, extreme storms & typhoons, harvest failures
And whilst the tech is around to curtail the problem, humanity, right now, just isn't doing so
www.ft.com/content/e995...
It's leading to record wildfires, floods, rising seas, extreme storms & typhoons, harvest failures
And whilst the tech is around to curtail the problem, humanity, right now, just isn't doing so
www.ft.com/content/e995...
January 14, 2026 at 6:55 AM
Chart admirably demonstrating the climate trend
It's leading to record wildfires, floods, rising seas, extreme storms & typhoons, harvest failures
And whilst the tech is around to curtail the problem, humanity, right now, just isn't doing so
www.ft.com/content/e995...
It's leading to record wildfires, floods, rising seas, extreme storms & typhoons, harvest failures
And whilst the tech is around to curtail the problem, humanity, right now, just isn't doing so
www.ft.com/content/e995...
China's automakers surpassed Japan's in global sales in 2025 (~27M vs ~25M units), marking a historic shift after decades of Japanese dominance.
China's growth propelled by EV leadership, China's vast domestic market, and rapid export expansion
Final numbers not yet fully finalized
Exports:
China's growth propelled by EV leadership, China's vast domestic market, and rapid export expansion
Final numbers not yet fully finalized
Exports:
January 14, 2026 at 6:54 AM
China's automakers surpassed Japan's in global sales in 2025 (~27M vs ~25M units), marking a historic shift after decades of Japanese dominance.
China's growth propelled by EV leadership, China's vast domestic market, and rapid export expansion
Final numbers not yet fully finalized
Exports:
China's growth propelled by EV leadership, China's vast domestic market, and rapid export expansion
Final numbers not yet fully finalized
Exports: