Reposted by Anne Rasmussen, Ruth Dassonneville, Klaus H. Goetz
Politicians’ perceptions of public opinion appear more closely linked to who they are than to who they talk to
Full paper here: 🔗 doi.org/10.1086/734528
10/10
⚠️Worrying, because many politicians soften simply see the public as a mirror of themselves.
✅Reassuring, because centrist politicians—often in government—should be more likely to get majority opinion right.
9/10
-Misperceptions are widespread
-They are most strongly associated with self-projection - Interest groups play a more modest, indirect role
This suggests that getting representation “right” depends more on curbing projection than on changing group contacts
8/10
If interest groups matter, their influence is mostly indirect—by shaping politicians’ own views, which in turn are associated with their (biased) perceptions of citizens.
7/10
Links to business groups are associated with less accurate perceptions—but not with systematic bias
Interactions with citizen groups show little connection to either accuracy or bias of perceptions
So, interest groups likely matter less than often feared.
6/10
Politicians’ estimates move systematically toward their own views:
(1)Right-wing politicians think the public is more right-wing.
(2) Left-wing politicians think the public is more left-wing.
“False consensus” in action.
5/10
- information from
- contact with, and
- (various forms of) engagement in interest groups.
And we measure at both the accuracy of and ideological bias in perceptions of public opinion
4/10
(1) Self-projection – politicians assume the public thinks like they do.
(2) Interest groups – ties to business or citizen groups correlate with perceptions.
3/10
On average, politicians misestimate support by 22 percentage points (!).
BUT biases vary a lot (!) by issue & country.
2/10
Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are?
@simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions
Thread 🧵1/10
Reposted by Anne Rasmussen, Christian Breunig
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Reposted by Anne Rasmussen
💡 Keynote speech by Margaritis Schinas, Vice President of the European Commission
📚 Publishing session @annerasmussen.bsky.social, @irobo.bsky.social, @mlorimer.bsky.social, @alessandronai.bsky.social, @steven-vanhauwaert.bsky.social
⭐ Thanks to everyone who participated!
Reposted by Anne Rasmussen
Find out more - cup.org/3UG4RIB
#ecprgc25
Reposted by Anne Rasmussen, Ben H. Ansell, Miranda J. Lubbers
by Anne Rasmussen — Reposted by Anne Rasmussen, Alessandro Nai
Please join us for this roundtable on open science featuring editors from @prxjournal.bsky.social @mlorimer.bsky.social @stevenhauwert & from @ejprjournal.bsky.social @alessandronai.bsky.social @isabelleborucki
The roundtable doesn’t overlap with any research panels 👏
Reposted by Anne Rasmussen, Robert Huber, Alessandro Nai
📆 Thursday 28 August
⏰ 15:45 - 16:45
🫶 Come and say hello!
👉 buff.ly/wUlT2Ys
Reposted by Anne Rasmussen, Robert Huber, Alessandro Nai
📊 Open Science in Political Research with @prxjournal.bsky.social & EJPR
📆 Thursday 28th August
⏰ 13:30 – 15:15 EEST
📌 Law Building, Floor: Ground Floor, Room: Amphitheatre B
➡️ buff.ly/xSvXWbU
We are launching a new forum for experimental political science research: First seminar: 19/11/2025. Deadline: 31/08/2025. Submit here: forms.gle/ZUJcBbZoDoaY...
Reposted by Anne Rasmussen
Parlamentsmitglieder sprechen ihren Wahlkreis mittels lokalen Posts direkt an, obwohl diese Strategie nicht belohnt wird.
www.defacto.expert/2025/08/19/w...
