Luke Sibieta

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

Thats right.

We see relative declines at age 11 between 2013 and 2018, with not much change afterwards

We then see some small catch-up for most needs at age 16 from 2013 onwards. Note that the severe learning difficulties group is small and VERY heterogenous.

England’s SEND crisis: costs, challenges and the case for reform | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

The only way to improve quality is through increases to supply-side capacity.

This could include a long-term specialist workforce plan, much better training for teachers on SEND needs, better partnerships with special schools and real accountability for outcomes [3/3]

ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

What are the challenges facing the special educational needs system in England, and how can the government could reform the system?

ifs.org.uk

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

This is the default projection in the absence of reform

The key question for government is whether it can deliver a smaller rise AND improve quality

We've written how the current EHCP-led funding model doesn't provide incentives to improve quality and can actively prevent it [2/3]

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029

This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO

If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]

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Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

There is a huge variation in educational outcomes across pupils with EHCPs with different types of needs. These differences have been quite stable over time.

There are probably big differences within types of needs too, illustrating the diversity of need and challenge in providing support [6/6]

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

Increases in disability claims are faster for teenagers than for adults, with practically all of the increase driven by Autism and ADHD needs

If this turns into more young adults on out of work benefits, this could generate big labour market and fiscal risks [5/6]

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

Areas with high EHCP rates tend to have high numbers of children receiving disability benefits. But the relationship is weaker than expected.

Many areas of London have high EHCP rates, but average CDLA claims

Some areas are really high on both measures (Knowsley: 7% with EHCPs, 16% on CDLA) [4/6]

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Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

Children with EHCPs are much more likely to come from a low-income background. This relationship is persistent over time and seen across a range of measures. Talk of bigger increases amongst middle and high income parents isn't really borne out in the data [3/6]

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

The fastest increases in EHCPs are amongst 4- and 5-year-olds. This could be a really good sign if earlier identification of needs leads to early, high-quality support. That is a BIG if though. [2/6]

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by Luke Sibieta — Reposted by: Christina Pagel

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

Today, we published a new @theifs.bsky.social Green Budget chapter on children with special educational needs & disability support, which is joint work with colleagues @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Darcey Snape

I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 5d

NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016.

THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:

Chart shows share of under 16s on disability benefits and share of pupils with high-level special educational support. Title states: "The share of children receiving high-level special educational support and the share on disability benefits have both doubled in the past decade."

1 5 8

Reposted by: Luke Sibieta, Christina Pagel

The Institute for Fiscal Studies

@theifs.bsky.social

NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016.

THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:

1 4 9

Further consultation planned on GCSE science | Qualifications Wales

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

Some good news. Plans to drop triple science as GCSE options in Wales have been postponed till at least 2031 (pending further consultation)

The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me

qualifications.wales/news-views/f...

Qualifications Wales has announced that a new consultation on GCSE science will take place in 2028.

qualifications.wales

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

And finally (!), whilst reform may seem hard and costly. Doing nothing is probably worse.

Spending is going to go up, the question is how to spend the money in ways that actually improve the system.

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

Attitudes are also key, and difficult to shift (as seen in Scotland). Schools and teachers must believe that providing for SEND is a core part of their job, and feel able to do it [6/6]

1 2 2

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

Currently, accountability is focused on spending and inputs. This should shift to outcomes and quality [5/6]

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

If reforms are to be successful, there must be a coherent transformation of the supply side. This probably involves more state-funded special schools and increased provision in mainstream schools [4/6]

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

The present system creates legal entitlements pupil by pupil. But, there is practically no way to judge whether the £4bn increase in funding has delivered value-for-money. The evidence on the best approaches is pretty thin.

The net result is high cost and patchy quality [3/6]

1 1 2

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

The factors driving increased numbers of children with SEND are global. Numbers of children with identified needs are going up in any future system, particularly autism and ADHD

The question is how best to respond [2/6]

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6]

ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

1 5 14

Luke Sibieta

@lukesibieta.bsky.social

That’s quite a cool anecdote. What’s the book?

The delay to Labour's breakfast clubs is the right call

Reposted by: Luke Sibieta

Laura McInerney

@missmc.bsky.social

Thank you to BBC 5 Live for having me on to play a totally mad live game of Battle of Education Secretaries 😂 Matt Chorley smashed it!

If you’d like your own copy to play with, they’re now £10 and that INCLUDES postage 😮

Bit.ly/educationbattle

2 1 12

Reposted by: Luke Sibieta

Schools Week

@schoolsweek.bsky.social

🥣 'Breakfast clubs could become a powerful symbol of effective government - or a cautionary tale. The difference lies in their execution'

schoolsweek.co.uk/labours-brea...

A number of other factors must be in place to ensure the policy is a success

schoolsweek.co.uk

2 10

Reposted by: Luke Sibieta

General Boles

@generalboles.bsky.social

Why Jasmin Paris should be #SPOTY24

She completed Barkley Marathons with 99 seconds to spare

- 33 Parkruns distance
- in a forest
- mostly off trail
- partially in dark
- no GPS watch
- ascended 2x height of Everest
- only 19 male runners have completed it in 29 years
- Jasmin was the 1st woman

20 86 350

Reposted by: Luke Sibieta

The Institute for Fiscal Studies

@theifs.bsky.social

NEW: The current system for funding special educational needs in England is broken.

Our new report, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, shows how recent big funding increases haven’t been sufficient to cover rising need, and why the system needs urgent change:

[THREAD: 1/9]

2 9 8

Reposted by: Luke Sibieta

The Institute for Fiscal Studies

@theifs.bsky.social

This rise in EHCPs has been driven by rises in three types of need:

- Autistic spectrum disorder
- Speech, language, and communication needs
- Social, emotional and mental health needs

There is evidence that other high-income countries are seeing similar trends.

[3/9]

Chart shows Number of pupils with EHCPs (previously statements of SEN) by primary type of need. Title states: "The rise in EHCPs is driven by three types of need, with autistic pupils making up one-third of pupils on EHCPs."

Reposted by: Luke Sibieta

The Institute for Fiscal Studies

@theifs.bsky.social

High needs funding rose by £4bn in real terms from 2015 to 2024, accounting for over half of the increase in all schools funding since 2015.

The obligations attached to EHCPs mean that in reality, spending has been £200-800 million higher than funding per year since 2018.

[4/9]

Chart shows high needs spending and estimated funding, 2024–25 prices. Title states: "High-needs funding has risen by 59% since 2015, but spending has exceeded funding by £200-800 million per year."

Reposted by: Luke Sibieta

The Institute for Fiscal Studies

@theifs.bsky.social

Spending on top-up funding for state-funded special schools and fees in independent special schools both increased by about £900m from 2015 to 2022, and by over £1bn by 2024.

This is despite independent special schools only containing about 5% of all pupils with EHCPs.

[6/9]

Chart shows change in high needs spending from 2015–16 to 2022–23 (actual) and 2024–25 (planned) £ billion, 2024 prices. Title states: "Special schools are responsible for nearly two thirds of spending increases since 2015."

Reposted by: Luke Sibieta

The Institute for Fiscal Studies

@theifs.bsky.social

Local authorities have built up large deficits for SEND provision, estimated at £3.3 billion in 2024.

Even with an additional £1 billion in the 2024 Autumn Budget, rapid rises in forecast spending could push these deficits out to over £8 billion by 2027.

[7/9]

Chart shows forecasts for high-needs funding and spending, £ billion, cash terms. Title states: "Spending on SEND is expected to rise by £2-3 billion by 2027, which could increase local authority deficits to £8bn."