Mark Galeotti
Mark Galeotti is a British historian, lecturer and writer on transnational crime and Russian security affairs and director of the… more
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Don't get me started on the subtitle of The Vory, 'Russia's super-mafia.' The price to be paid for having a foreign word as the title (publishers generally don't like that)
Let's just say that what goes on a cover - from text to design - tends to reflect a compromise between the author and the publishers...
Reposted by: Mark Galeotti
What's that you say? You don't have the ebook of A SHORT HISTORY OF RUSSIA? Inconceivable! Fear not, though: it's on sale at Amazon.co.uk for a trivial 99p this month
I don't think there's any reason to think so, not least as Putin was dragged reluctantly into burning his relationship with Israel and kinda supporting Hamas *after* the attacks, because of the need at the time to keep Iran sweet
…his default is likely towards conservatism and authoritarianism. Brezhnevism or Nicholas II-ism? One died in office, the other emphatically did not. We’ll see which parallel plays out best. 10/end
He is, after all, risk averse, and tends to regard change as always the riskier option. Having seen both the USSR and DDR collapse around him, and regarding this as results of attempted reform and regime weakness… 9/
But it’s hard to imagine VVP and his fellow septuagenarians able to reinvent themselves or come up with any substantive changes in direct. He *could* do all kinds of things, but will he? I suspect he’ll just plough on, hoping everything works out. 8/
…comes political resentment. Probably not protest on any major scale – one thing the regime still does well is repression – but protest potential, a simmering undercurrent that even if not manifest in direct action, undermines coherence, productivity and morale, late Brezhnevism style. 7/
Combined with the petrol supply crisis brought about by Ukrainian long-range strikes, this means the effort – largely successful until now – to insulate most Russians from the war will become ever harder, and with that… 6/
This is scarring, but bearable – he can continue to fight his war. However, the civilian sector of the economy is withering, and the quality of life for most will decline: the death of the old Putin ‘stay out of politics but enjoy life’ social contract. 5/
Meanwhile, the Russian economy is slowing down. GDP growth this year will slow to 1% or less, while inflation is not going to fall to the 4% target but hover closer to 7%. 4/
…while he doesn’t have to fight a forever war, just be able to last longer than Ukraine, what may be a costly but viable military strategy also has serious economic and political costs at home. Is that last bit of Donetsk oblast really worth it? He seems to think so. 3/
Obviously, there’s the war. He seems to have chosen to squander the chance to fix the current front line with a deal negotiated through Trump, so the meatgrinder continues. His gamble is clearly that he can get a better deal yet but… 2/
7 October – Putin’s 73rd birthday. I won’t wish him many happy returns, but let’s just spend a moment pondering the dilemmas that will likely face him in the coming year 1/
Monday morning re-up: Apart from his stamina, what else can we glean from Putin's 4-hour Valdai keynote/Q&A - and how are the themes mirror-imaged in some of the most anti-Putin thinking in the West?
Reposted by: Mark Galeotti
While listening to this podcast, @markgaleotti.bsky.social mentioned his Forged In War #book.
A masterful history of how war and insecurity, both real and perceived, have driven Russia’s destiny for centuries, including the invasion of #Ukraine.
#Audiobook #Booksky
#Kindle #Libby #Putin
#Russia
A masterful history of how war and insecurity, both real and perceived, have driven Russia’s destiny for centuries, including the invasion of #Ukraine.
#Audiobook #Booksky
#Kindle #Libby #Putin
#Russia
Reposted by: Mark Galeotti
For those who can read Finnish or don't mind using Google Translate (which does a pretty decent job), an interview on the release of my book FORGED IN WAR in translation that inevitably wanders to Ukraine, drones, etc
yle.fi/a/74-20185609
yle.fi/a/74-20185609
Maailmankuulun brittitutkijan viesti Putinille: Historialla ei voi perustella nykyisyyttä
Professori Mark Galeottin mukaan Putin joutuu perustelemaan Ukrainan sotaa historialla, koska hän on pettänyt lupaukset elintason nostamisesta.
yle.fi
Reposted by: Mark Galeotti
I do say that the *news* (foreign news, at least) in it is still good - it's the opinion pieces that (with the exception of Tom Sharpe's naval stuff) is unhinged or simply downright wrong
And this stops drones how? And given that sabotage operations have been carried out by locals recruited online, this stops that how? This is counterproductive and xenophobic in my view.
In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai
Key themes from Putin's 4-hour outing are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics. Everyone wants to oversimplify a complex world.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Key themes from Putin's 4-hour outing are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics. Everyone wants to oversimplify a complex world.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai - In Moscow's Shadows
Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the ...
www.buzzsprout.com
Will Europe’s ‘drone wall’ really defend us?
The answer is, of course, both yes and no. Or rather that it is neither a quick nor perfect defence. My thoughts for @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/europe...
The answer is, of course, both yes and no. Or rather that it is neither a quick nor perfect defence. My thoughts for @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/europe...
Will Europe’s ‘drone wall’ really defend us?
Airport closures and other suspected Russian interference is showing Nato countries what’s in store if we don’t co-operate and rearm
www.thetimes.com