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Ariel Edwards-Levy

@aedwardslevy.bsky.social

38K followers 610 following 4.5K posts

Polling editor at CNN, keeping (cross)tabs on public opinion and the news. I like puns.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · Mar 24

Excited to share some tips for writing about polls for anyone coming in cold to the subject!

(Pictured: a thing on which pollsters are probably not calling you these days).

Ryan Teague Beckwith @ryanbeckwith.bsky.social · Mar 24

How do you read a poll? CNN polling editor Ariel Edwards-Levy walks you through it yourfirstbyline.substack.com/p/how-to-rea...

How to Read a Poll

CNN polling editor Ariel Edwards-Levy walks you through everything you need to know.

yourfirstbyline.substack.com

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 24m

extremely abbott and costello voice:

poster WHERE house?

that's what I'm telling you

Josh Fruhlinger @jfruh.bsky.social · 25m

found the place where you and all your internet friends hang out

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 1h

this feels very "If on a winter's night," by which I mean I too now want to read this

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 2h

same, but I probably need to include a disclosure in the conflicts section of how fervently I want this to be true

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 3h

has anyone actually proved a causal relationship between doing things and the things being done

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 17h

"leading by 1 point"

Gretchen McCulloch @gretchenmcc.bsky.social · 19h

In honour of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand.

"I'm correcting your grammar"

Stephen McGann @stephenmcgann.uk · 1d

No fee, I'm afraid.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 2d

"E...T...has more of comment than question"

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 2d

there's some sort of "outmatch a grizzly bear" vs. "outchart a poller bear" joke here

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 2d

calling it now, folks; this is the

Philip Bump @pbump.com · 2d

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 2d

this worked like a charm

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 2d

my toxic trait is that I almost opened datawrapper at 11 pm to make a line chart of "days in 2025 elapsed over time" and call it a submission for graph of the year

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 2d

endorse

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 2d

there we go

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 2d

(via yougovamerica.substack.com/p/snubbed-fo...)

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 2d

i stand with @dhmontgomery.com

(at the least, there should be a pollitzer)

The Nobel Committee awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado — and not U.S. President Donald Trump, who argued his foreign policy actions merited the award. (Find out whether Americans agree below!)

Here at the Surveyor, though, we’re more concerned with the continuing injustice that is the lack of a Nobel Polling Prize. We at YouGov feel confident we’d receive such an honor on the basis of our powerful research findings, such as that 7% of men think they could win a fight with a grizzly bear or that Americans are evenly split over whether a straw has one or two holes.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 3d

NYT doesn't use panel data

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 3d

Would be delighted to see the return of the News Interest Index and/or an update on the mode split experiment

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 3d

cost saving idea: verbally claim that you're using Lucid panel data, by which you mean that you actually asked two people called Lou and Sid

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 3d

tastes pretty gamy either way

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 3d

and if you think that's rough, I've heard the rate of "survey professionals" at AAPOR is nearly 100%

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 3d

More than a third of Lucid (now Cint) respondents in 2019 were "professional" respondents according to a new article in @polanalysis.bsky.social , and that's the conservative estimate

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 3d

nocrastination

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 3d

Currently leading CNN homepage:

DOJ indicts NY attorney general who defeated Trump in court

Attorney General Letitia James speaks during a press conference in New York, on February 16, 2024, following a verdict against Donald Trump in his civil fraud trial.

She is the second Trump foe to be indicted in two weeks as the president continues to pursue charges against his opponents

Trump-loyalist brought charges after other attorneys voiced concerns

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 3d

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 4d

(This seems testable, cc media scholars)

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 4d

Totally get why people dislike media using "experts say [uncontroversial fact]" framing rather than making the judgment call themselves, but given the state of media trust, wonder if there isn't at least an argument that the former reads as more credible: don't take it from us, these people know

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 4d

www.cnn.com/2025/10/07/u...
www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/u...
www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...

Protests in Portland

Trump, talking about the city of Portland, falsely claimed “your place is burning down” and that “unless they’re playing false tapes, this looked like World War II.” We’re not sure what “tapes” Trump has seen, but it’s simply not true that the city is burning down. While there have been some unruly protests near an Immigration and Customs Enforcement building in the city this year – and protesters were arrested in June for allegedly starting fires there – the broader city has been functioning as usual, and even the situation around the ICE building is generally calmer than it was in June.

CNN’s Andy Rose noted in an article Tuesday that Trump began publicly floating the idea of deploying troops to Portland this year on the same day that Fox News, of which Trump is a frequent viewer, aired a story that mixed recent footage of standoffs at the ICE facility with five-year-old footage of rioting in Portland during a period of national unrest in 2020.

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