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Biased Statistics

@biasedstats.bsky.social

530 followers 430 following 990 posts

Reluctant economist, statistician by trade. Géologue de la politique. Tweets in 🇫🇷/🇬🇧.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · Sep 4

Les économistes sont des géologues de la politique (Victor Hugo, Les Misérables, Livre IV)

Ils élevaient les questions matérielles, les questions d’agriculture, d’industrie, de commerce, presque à la dignité d’une religion. Dans la civilisation telle qu’elle se fait, un peu par Dieu, beaucoup par l’homme, les intérêts se combinent, s’agrègent et s’amalgament de manière à former une véritable roche dure, selon une loi dynamique patiemment étudiée par les économistes, ces géologues de la politique.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 2d

C’est bien détaillé 😃

Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 2d

When “flexible” turns into “employer-discretion” work schedules.

A 2017 paper by two economists, Alexandre Mas and Amanda Pallais, showed that working mothers with children under 4 would be willing to give up barely any pay for a flexible schedule, and would give up an average of just 15 percent of their pay to work from home. But they would forgo almost 40 percent of their income to avoid an “employer discretion” job in which their boss sets their hours at will. The problem may be more pronounced among mothers, but it isn’t unique to them: All workers in the study — men, women, parents and nonparents alike — disliked employer discretion jobs and were willing to take hefty pay cuts to avoid them.

Yet these jobs are a significant part of our economy. At the high end of the income range, a shift toward interactive, team-based work has created something economists call convex returns to hours. Companies earn more when one worker works 80 hours a week than when two work 40 hours each because that one worker’s knowledge and relationships are crucial. Two relatively junior employees might be interchangeable, but two law partners or consulting managers are not — creating incentives for firms to eek out more hours from each employee.

It’s a pattern the economist Claudia Goldin calls “greedy work.” In lower-income jobs, it manifests as on-demand scheduling which allows companies to set workers’ hours at will, sending them home from scheduled shifts, calling them in abruptly or shifting schedules at short notice.

Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 2d

Pas de stratégie, pas de moyen.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 2d

Comme avec l’IFI, dans lequel la première tranche commence à 800k mais ne s’appliquait que si le patrimoine immobilier total dépasse 1.3m, non?

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 2d

Le concept, et le fait qu’on le jauge à la catégorie d’actif détenu.

Reposted by Biased Statistics

Alexa Sadier @aigverte.bsky.social · 4d

Hallucinant. C'est inacceptable. J'ai une ERC, que rétrospectivement j'ai eu la chance de rédiger à l'étranger avec un dispositif bien meilleur que ceux qui sont proposés en France et SURTOUT avec de quoi produire des résultats préliminaires que ce soit en terme de mentiring ou de moyens #esr

Cédric Brun @cedricbrun.bsky.social · 5d

Quand notre ministre de tutelle nous insulte devant la représentation nationale. "Bande de nuls" "complètement à la ramasse".
Nous reprocher des taux de réussite faible à Horizon Europe et ERC, quand manquent les moyens pour assurer nos missions de service public. Surtout changez rien!👌

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 4d

The AI bubble has reached its ‘fried chicken’ phase

www.ft.com/content/b003...

Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 5d

It should be but won’t be the final word, and Platner will lose the primary.

I seem to disagree with most of my Bluesky on this.

You’re Being Lied to About Graham Platner

We read Graham Platner’s whole Reddit archive. The vilification of the Maine candidate for Senate doesn’t square with what he actually wrote in his posts.

jacobin.com

Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 5d

“Fuck tha police“ was a better political protest slogan than “ACAB“ because it was not an incomprehensible acronym and it implied that society’s problems (and solutions) with police violence mostly reside with the institution and not the individuals.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 12d

If criterion is song quality x match with the show’s content:

Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 12d

Trump’s new ballroom looks great

Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 12d

Pour beaucoup de français, il est difficile d’accepter avoir été gouverné 5 ans par deux individus prêts à conspirer avec des puissances étrangères pour accroître leur pouvoir et leur richesse.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 13d

“Better to ask for forgiveness than permission” is not good advice in most areas of life but when you work in a bureaucracy it is a useful insight.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 13d

Une majorité de français a raison

AuPalais @palaisau.bsky.social · 14d

« Selon un sondage ELABE/BFMTV sur la condamnation de Nicolas Sarkozy, une majorité de Français juge la décision de la justice impartiale, condamne fermement les menaces visant la magistrature et rejette les tentatives de l’ancien Président de transformer son procès en combat politique »

Nicolas Sarkozy condamné : une majorité de Français rejette son discours de victimisation selon un sondage Elabe

Selon un sondage ELABE/BFMTV sur la condamnation de Nicolas Sarkozy à cinq ans de prison ferme das l’affaire du financement libyen continue de diviser la société française. Mais une majorité de França...

www.ladepeche.fr

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Reposted by Biased Statistics

Guillaume Allègre @gallegre.bsky.social · 14d

J'ai relu « The End of History » de Fukuyama (1989). Absoument rien ne s'est passé comme prédit ou ne peut être raisonnablement interprété comme en 1989.
->l'Histoire n'a pas de sens

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 14d

But no ice cubes, i understand why Americans are confused.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 15d

Frequency of law enforcement is an order of magnitude more cost-effective than severity of punishment. Current policies reduce GDP by 2-6 percent and increase crime, as the effects of incarceration on deterrence & incapacitation are more than offset by their effects on motive & opportunity.

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Reposted by Biased Statistics

Tanguy Le Fur @tanguylefur.bsky.social · 21d

as someone who engages in both growth theory and economic history i'm happy to see both fields celebrated by this year's Nobel, but because i also dabble in history of economic thought i think it should be noted that the decision to pool them together may not be as natural as it seems.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 18d

In dynamic analysis, any corruption leads to more corruption as officials compete for deals by selling off national assets, and the optimal amount of corruption everywhere is zero.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 18d

In static analysis, there is a non-zero optimal amount of corruption to tolerate in developing countries with fragile institutional frameworks: enough to align officials’ incentives with gains that benefit the population, not too much otherwise the population’s share of the total goes to zero.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 19d

An extension is that opponents of measures to increase diversity in schools (like desegregation busing in the U.S. in the 70s, or Affelnet today in Paris) implicitly think that poor people are poor because they are stupid AND that intelligence is an inheritable trait.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 19d

Opponents of minimum wage hikes implicitly think that there is no path to making certain people sufficiently productive to justify paying them a living wage, which underlines a (perhaps unconscious) belief that poor people are poor because they are stupid.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 20d

Every country’s constitution or organic law should impose binding multi-year budget laws with transparent assumptions and targets consistent with medium-term fiscal sustainability.

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Biased Statistics @biasedstats.bsky.social · 20d

Open borders would not lead to unsustainable migration flows, would support low-income countries thanks to stronger reversed migration flows and knowledge transfers, would limit social dumping and unfair wage competition, and would end traumatic border violence.

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