Matt Winkelman
@mattwinkelman.bsky.social
4.8K followers 500 following 4.5K posts
Cats, phillies prospects, hopefully less unhinged rants. He/Him. I write things at https://philliesminorthoughts.com/ / @philliesminorthoughts.com
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mattwinkelman.bsky.social
How many true multi inning mop up guys are a) better than a position player, b) not just better in shorter high octane, and c) someone you don’t care about?
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
No it isn’t and it is probably going to get worse as more teams try to avoid taxing arms too much. But also mop up guys just aren’t good enough to pitch in the majors with diminished stuff anymore
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
Sort of? Hitters are too good to really carry a mop up man who doesn’t pitch for a while just in case a game goes long. Also teams are trying to abuse relievers less too, it isn’t just the short outings
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
The whole point is that by the time it gets to 15 you are fucked and your pitching is screwed. But it also doesn’t matter which is why the Manfred msn isn’t a real actual problem
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
The teams used multiple starting pitchers in relief. If this happened during the regular season a team is fucked for most of a week and is making multiple AAA call ups. Which is why post season vs regular season matters.
seidler.bsky.social
Everyone doing anti-Manfred Man discourse is forgetting the part where if that happened in a random June game there would’ve been 12 people left in the park and it would’ve been considered the most dreadful game of the year
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
I need this to get to position players pitching at this point
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
It feels like we have reached a point where there is just pitching no one hits and then pitching that gets crushed and nothing in between
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
IF he can improve his routes and jumps he has a chance to be a plus center fielder. He has great closing speed and can make the difficult catches. It is in everyone's best interest if he can make CF work so they are going to try and make it work.
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
Going to get sub $5M in arb too, you aren't getting better for the money. Just need to actually get him a good partner.
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
The changeup always sucked, but maybe there is a split or kick change in there, but I have wondered to your last thing if he gets a cutter/gyro slider at some point. It doesn't need to be a chase pitch or whiff pitch, but a land for strikes safely type offering.
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
I think Nick is gone regardless. I think Bader at age 31 wants to go get a 3-4 year deal and I don’t think the Phillies want that many years on another 30+ guy
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
Ranger and Bader feel like guys they want back and keep in touch but they are not and should not be the highest bidders
Reposted by Matt Winkelman
phylan.website
Kerkering is 24, under team control until the heat death of the universe, and will get a standing O in his first appearance back at the bank in 26. keep him imo. cutting off ones nose to spite the face and all
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
I really need to stop posting, but I really don't get the "they need to move Orion Kerkering" sentiment. I think the team's reaction was right and I think largely the fanbase is going to blame others. Plus you they really do not have right handed arms to replace him, even depth wise.
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
Agreed. Schwarber because he is their heart and one of the best batters out there. Realmuto because catching sucks, just hope it is like a 2 year deal for reasonable money.
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
We (humans) really like to read things as a linear path with cause-effect and narrative. But this is really 100%, and it is just like looking at 08-11 and this as declining talent when the events are not a connected path of meaning and instead of tangle of messiness.
michaelangiolillo.bsky.social
It’s one of those things that had the top 3 not been disasters the previous 2 seasons this is easier to swallow. This is the first time it’s justified for them to struggle but it’s so disappointing when it’s coming off the last 2 years and 4-9 did more than enough to support a winning series
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
My guess is if he comes into Spring, is good and competes he goes to Jersey Shore and then moves as fast as his stuff and results indicate. Given he needs to build innings too I will probably write him up as a mid-late 2027 ETA as a sort of optimistic median outcome.
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
I find it hard to look at the pitching and look at what happened to the Dodgers lineup and go, the Phillies hitters choked. The Dodgers top 5 went 14-79, are Ohtani, Betts, Hernandez, Freeman, and Smith cooked? Did they need a big hit, yes. But this is so much different than the last 2 years.
mattwinkelman.bsky.social
This keeps coming up as a narrative because so much analysis doesn't understand the draft and looks at the major league team.

They didn't draft for relief help, they drafted pitchers, because they need talent and their starting pitching situation might be even more desperate.
papergreat.bsky.social
That certainly seemed to be the aim of this past draft.
OTOH this organization is still absolutely nowhere on bats.