Matt Winkelman
@mattwinkelman.bsky.social
Cats, phillies prospects, hopefully less unhinged rants. He/Him.
I write things at https://philliesminorthoughts.com/ / @philliesminorthoughts.com
I write things at https://philliesminorthoughts.com/ / @philliesminorthoughts.com
Pinned
Matt Winkelman
@mattwinkelman.bsky.social
· Mar 25
New season, new pinned post:
Depth Chart - docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Org Roster - docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Pitch Tracking - docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Top Prospects - philliesminorthoughts.com/phillies-202...
Weekly/Monthly Recaps - philliesminorthoughts.com/scouting-rep...
Depth Chart - docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Org Roster - docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Pitch Tracking - docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Top Prospects - philliesminorthoughts.com/phillies-202...
Weekly/Monthly Recaps - philliesminorthoughts.com/scouting-rep...
I like that the Flyers occasionally look like a real hockey team
November 27, 2025 at 2:38 AM
I like that the Flyers occasionally look like a real hockey team
There is a world where this is a good deal, I wouldn’t do it. I value innings more than anything and while Cease takes the ball every turn I want actual bulk for that amount of money.
November 27, 2025 at 12:17 AM
There is a world where this is a good deal, I wouldn’t do it. I value innings more than anything and while Cease takes the ball every turn I want actual bulk for that amount of money.
The problem here is that Utley has 352 more games player than Wright, a 5 year elite peak vs a 2 year peak. Wright was a better hitter, Utley was a far superior defender and base runner at a more important position.
Utley basically had the same career as David Wright. Both were elite players but not HOF worthy.
November 26, 2025 at 6:35 PM
The problem here is that Utley has 352 more games player than Wright, a 5 year elite peak vs a 2 year peak. Wright was a better hitter, Utley was a far superior defender and base runner at a more important position.
Players say a lot of things and I have no doubt that off the field Rollins was the key, but on the field, Utley batted third, and was the best overall hitter on the team (07-11 leads Howard in wRC+) both driving in Rollins and Victorino and setting the table for Howard.
He wasn't the engine that made the team go. I love Chase, but come on, now. The players themselves said that was J-Roll.
November 26, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Players say a lot of things and I have no doubt that off the field Rollins was the key, but on the field, Utley batted third, and was the best overall hitter on the team (07-11 leads Howard in wRC+) both driving in Rollins and Victorino and setting the table for Howard.
That run already has Halladay in the Hall. If you are just looking at 07-11, Utley is a no doubt slam dunk Hall of Fame level talent, longevity is the argument against him by fWAR he trails Pujols 35.5 to 33.3 during that era. He easily was the 2nd best hitter in baseball during that time
This is the only case for him being in, and I hate this case. Just further eroding the prestige of the Hall.
The 2007-11 Phillies were a great TEAM and didn’t have a single player legitimately worthy of the Hall of Fame.
The 2007-11 Phillies were a great TEAM and didn’t have a single player legitimately worthy of the Hall of Fame.
November 26, 2025 at 6:27 PM
That run already has Halladay in the Hall. If you are just looking at 07-11, Utley is a no doubt slam dunk Hall of Fame level talent, longevity is the argument against him by fWAR he trails Pujols 35.5 to 33.3 during that era. He easily was the 2nd best hitter in baseball during that time
One of the things we do not talk about with Utley (especially since it was evident on the eye test) is that he is one of the best base runners of all time. He is 13th in FG base runs since 1947 and is the only one in the top 40 with under 200 stolen bases.
You could see all of this coming from a mile away. It wasn’t that he was looked down on his time, but that contemporary writing and fandom never acknowledged he was far and away the best position player on those teams and the thing that made the engine go.
Chase Utley is a Hall of Famer, if you don't think so, you are wrong.
November 26, 2025 at 6:25 PM
One of the things we do not talk about with Utley (especially since it was evident on the eye test) is that he is one of the best base runners of all time. He is 13th in FG base runs since 1947 and is the only one in the top 40 with under 200 stolen bases.
You could see all of this coming from a mile away. It wasn’t that he was looked down on his time, but that contemporary writing and fandom never acknowledged he was far and away the best position player on those teams and the thing that made the engine go.
Chase Utley is a Hall of Famer, if you don't think so, you are wrong.
November 26, 2025 at 6:07 PM
You could see all of this coming from a mile away. It wasn’t that he was looked down on his time, but that contemporary writing and fandom never acknowledged he was far and away the best position player on those teams and the thing that made the engine go.
One of the things that frustrates me about stat discussions is there are a lot of simplistic shorthand stats that are either thrown out completely or treated as gospel. One thing the last 10+ years of public baseball research has shown is the whole sport is complicated, interconnected, and messy.
Pitchers control a decent chunk of their ball in play outcomes. Stuff metrics often correlate better with quality of contact than they do whiffs.
DIPS was an incredible breakthrough of its time, groundbreaking research that correctly challenged a lot of orthodoxy. Its time was also 25 years ago.
DIPS was an incredible breakthrough of its time, groundbreaking research that correctly challenged a lot of orthodoxy. Its time was also 25 years ago.
November 26, 2025 at 2:59 AM
One of the things that frustrates me about stat discussions is there are a lot of simplistic shorthand stats that are either thrown out completely or treated as gospel. One thing the last 10+ years of public baseball research has shown is the whole sport is complicated, interconnected, and messy.
Reposted by Matt Winkelman
if you told me people would still be stanning FIP-based WAR in the mid-2020s at basically any point in the last 15 years I’d have laughed at you, and yet
Being anti-FIP based WAR is twice as stupid though.
November 26, 2025 at 2:35 AM
if you told me people would still be stanning FIP-based WAR in the mid-2020s at basically any point in the last 15 years I’d have laughed at you, and yet
My repeated thing I will ask all offseason is what is your starting pitching plan for the next two years if you trade Andrew Painter in your fake or real trade? A reminder that you do not have an infinite budget.
The Phillies have reportedly "checked in" on D-Backs second baseman Ketel Marte.
philliesnation.com/2025/11/phil...
philliesnation.com/2025/11/phil...
Ketel Marte could be the perfect trade target if Phillies are willing to pay massive price
Read - Ketel Marte could be the perfect trade target if Phillies are willing to pay massive price - and more Phillies news and rumors at PhilliesNation.com
philliesnation.com
November 26, 2025 at 2:42 AM
My repeated thing I will ask all offseason is what is your starting pitching plan for the next two years if you trade Andrew Painter in your fake or real trade? A reminder that you do not have an infinite budget.
I am forcing someone to go to God Emperor. Please do not go all the way, but it is time someone actually went big.
If you were a despotic president, what movie would you force Hollywood to make? I want to see Quentin's Star Trek movie or maybe Kill Bill Vol 3.
November 25, 2025 at 6:27 PM
I am forcing someone to go to God Emperor. Please do not go all the way, but it is time someone actually went big.
One of those things where I feel like I need to correct myself as I continue to go through the ranking process. The Phillies have been poor at drafting and development, but actually the 2022 draft was a good draft by the Phillies and if you want optimism it is the closest to the Phillies 2025 draft
November 25, 2025 at 5:33 PM
One of those things where I feel like I need to correct myself as I continue to go through the ranking process. The Phillies have been poor at drafting and development, but actually the 2022 draft was a good draft by the Phillies and if you want optimism it is the closest to the Phillies 2025 draft
Reposted by Matt Winkelman
Of course I planned on cooking the turkey outside on a day that is never going to get over 30. I am almost wish it was snowing on Thursday so I could attempt to get all of my Wisconsin cred in one day, but instead I am likely to just be cold.
November 25, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Of course I planned on cooking the turkey outside on a day that is never going to get over 30. I am almost wish it was snowing on Thursday so I could attempt to get all of my Wisconsin cred in one day, but instead I am likely to just be cold.
Reposted by Matt Winkelman
I have two opinions on the Hall of Fame ballot
1. Chase Utley is a Hall of Famer and voters need to stop fucking around.
2. It is objectively funny to have some real core Phillies in Abreu, Hamels, Rollins, and Utley AND cameo Phillies Gio Gonzalez, Howie Kendrick, Hunter Pence, and K-Rod
1. Chase Utley is a Hall of Famer and voters need to stop fucking around.
2. It is objectively funny to have some real core Phillies in Abreu, Hamels, Rollins, and Utley AND cameo Phillies Gio Gonzalez, Howie Kendrick, Hunter Pence, and K-Rod
November 24, 2025 at 9:26 PM
I have two opinions on the Hall of Fame ballot
1. Chase Utley is a Hall of Famer and voters need to stop fucking around.
2. It is objectively funny to have some real core Phillies in Abreu, Hamels, Rollins, and Utley AND cameo Phillies Gio Gonzalez, Howie Kendrick, Hunter Pence, and K-Rod
1. Chase Utley is a Hall of Famer and voters need to stop fucking around.
2. It is objectively funny to have some real core Phillies in Abreu, Hamels, Rollins, and Utley AND cameo Phillies Gio Gonzalez, Howie Kendrick, Hunter Pence, and K-Rod
Your average Hall of Fame voter is very similar to your average American voter in that they make completely illogical and arbitrary choices that will just make you depressed if you try to understand them.
Ballot #1 in the 2026 Hall of Fame voting cycle is from Jorge Morejón. Andruw Jones receives the first net gained vote of the cycle. Jones finished last year 8.8% shy of election. Morejón's column: www.martinoticias.com/a/opini%C3%B...
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
November 24, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Your average Hall of Fame voter is very similar to your average American voter in that they make completely illogical and arbitrary choices that will just make you depressed if you try to understand them.
I knew Johan Rojas was having a great winter league (he also had a solid winter league a year ago), but I was unprepared for 11 walks to 6 strikeouts in 20 games. That is better plate discipline numbers than I would have bet on him putting up if you stuck him in low-A right now.
November 24, 2025 at 3:16 PM
I knew Johan Rojas was having a great winter league (he also had a solid winter league a year ago), but I was unprepared for 11 walks to 6 strikeouts in 20 games. That is better plate discipline numbers than I would have bet on him putting up if you stuck him in low-A right now.
Reposted by Matt Winkelman
Tomorrow is going to be hell, but totally worth it because The Beths were amazing.
My getting older opinion continues to be that concerts should start earlier. I am in my 30s and I have work tomorrow morning, we can easily push it up an hour (more on the weekend)
November 24, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Tomorrow is going to be hell, but totally worth it because The Beths were amazing.
My getting older opinion continues to be that concerts should start earlier. I am in my 30s and I have work tomorrow morning, we can easily push it up an hour (more on the weekend)
November 24, 2025 at 2:41 AM
My getting older opinion continues to be that concerts should start earlier. I am in my 30s and I have work tomorrow morning, we can easily push it up an hour (more on the weekend)
Every week I feel better about my decision to just be a fair weather/bandwagon Eagles fan.
November 24, 2025 at 12:58 AM
Every week I feel better about my decision to just be a fair weather/bandwagon Eagles fan.
I hate that it looks like the Mets got a huge positive vibe shift
November 23, 2025 at 11:23 PM
I hate that it looks like the Mets got a huge positive vibe shift
Got waitlisted on some PhD programs and so graduated college without a job and 6 months of unemployment later I got a job offer
November 23, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Got waitlisted on some PhD programs and so graduated college without a job and 6 months of unemployment later I got a job offer
Here are the pitchers on the 40 man roster:
SP: Sanchez, Walker, Luzardo, Nola, Wheeler*, Rangel, Painter, Cabrera, Chace*
RP: Duran, Kerkering, Banks, Strahm, Alvarado, Johnson, Lazar, Hoffman, McFarlane
*Currently injured/rehab
SP: Sanchez, Walker, Luzardo, Nola, Wheeler*, Rangel, Painter, Cabrera, Chace*
RP: Duran, Kerkering, Banks, Strahm, Alvarado, Johnson, Lazar, Hoffman, McFarlane
*Currently injured/rehab
They also now have an absolute shit ton of roster spots and zero depth. Which puts into focus what they need to focus on all offseason
November 21, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Here are the pitchers on the 40 man roster:
SP: Sanchez, Walker, Luzardo, Nola, Wheeler*, Rangel, Painter, Cabrera, Chace*
RP: Duran, Kerkering, Banks, Strahm, Alvarado, Johnson, Lazar, Hoffman, McFarlane
*Currently injured/rehab
SP: Sanchez, Walker, Luzardo, Nola, Wheeler*, Rangel, Painter, Cabrera, Chace*
RP: Duran, Kerkering, Banks, Strahm, Alvarado, Johnson, Lazar, Hoffman, McFarlane
*Currently injured/rehab