Jarrett Seidler
@seidler.bsky.social
senior writer @baseballprospectus.com, longtime crank, social circle online circle friend of the show, here more now
Enough people have read this as advocating for other unnamed all in one stats or projections that I feel a need to clarify that I am advocating that people take a closer look to contextualize individual pitchers as opposed to one size fits all solutions
I am begging you all to not use nondynamic stat line projection systems and FIP-based WAR to analyze pitchers for the year of baseball 2026, we can do so much better now
November 26, 2025 at 3:25 AM
Enough people have read this as advocating for other unnamed all in one stats or projections that I feel a need to clarify that I am advocating that people take a closer look to contextualize individual pitchers as opposed to one size fits all solutions
I am deeply sorry you were failed this bad by an entire generation of baseball writers who thought they knew everything and were wrong about a lot of it
Because FIP is one of the single most descriptive stats of a pitcher’s contributions than any thing else. Pitches simply don’t control and to attribute it to them is to excessive extreme false precision.
November 26, 2025 at 2:41 AM
I am deeply sorry you were failed this bad by an entire generation of baseball writers who thought they knew everything and were wrong about a lot of it
if you told me people would still be stanning FIP-based WAR in the mid-2020s at basically any point in the last 15 years I’d have laughed at you, and yet
Being anti-FIP based WAR is twice as stupid though.
November 26, 2025 at 2:35 AM
if you told me people would still be stanning FIP-based WAR in the mid-2020s at basically any point in the last 15 years I’d have laughed at you, and yet
I am a qualitative analyst. I use many things; context is key to understanding player value and performance. I think the search for singular projection systems and singular all in one value numbers leads to poor evaluations. And worse discourse.
So what do you recommend people use to analyze pitchers (and hitters) in the year of baseball 2026?
November 26, 2025 at 12:27 AM
I am a qualitative analyst. I use many things; context is key to understanding player value and performance. I think the search for singular projection systems and singular all in one value numbers leads to poor evaluations. And worse discourse.
the inputs for systems like STEAMER are entirely the player's back of the baseball card type stats, and the paradigm is nearly two decades old. We know so much more about pitching (and hitting, for that matter) now!
What do you mean by "nondynamic stat line projection systems"?
November 25, 2025 at 9:00 PM
the inputs for systems like STEAMER are entirely the player's back of the baseball card type stats, and the paradigm is nearly two decades old. We know so much more about pitching (and hitting, for that matter) now!
I am begging you all to not use nondynamic stat line projection systems and FIP-based WAR to analyze pitchers for the year of baseball 2026, we can do so much better now
November 25, 2025 at 8:54 PM
I am begging you all to not use nondynamic stat line projection systems and FIP-based WAR to analyze pitchers for the year of baseball 2026, we can do so much better now
probably something like Sproat and Christian Scott
What would the Mets equivalent of their offer be? Although I have little interest in Gray.
November 25, 2025 at 7:13 PM
probably something like Sproat and Christian Scott
Brandon Clarke may never throw enough quality strikes but there are like three LHPs in the entire sport who have his combo of arm speed and slider quality
November 25, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Brandon Clarke may never throw enough quality strikes but there are like three LHPs in the entire sport who have his combo of arm speed and slider quality
COVID and vaccine discourse is like the last thing on the planet I wish to engage in today, but March 2022 is where “Nimmo kept it quiet” completely falls apart even if you ignore his later timed clothing choices
Isn't Kershaw a bit more outspoken and much higher profile? Nimmo's views do make me care less about his departure, but he still seems a bit like a better person than Kershaw (who I think is basically dirt). I could be wrong.
November 25, 2025 at 2:24 PM
COVID and vaccine discourse is like the last thing on the planet I wish to engage in today, but March 2022 is where “Nimmo kept it quiet” completely falls apart even if you ignore his later timed clothing choices
this isn’t really about anyone on here but it has been a bit weird to see people who were pointing out the Kershaw hypocrisies a month ago ignoring same on Nimmo
November 25, 2025 at 2:09 PM
this isn’t really about anyone on here but it has been a bit weird to see people who were pointing out the Kershaw hypocrisies a month ago ignoring same on Nimmo
can we get some classic If Da Boss posting today
November 24, 2025 at 7:29 PM
can we get some classic If Da Boss posting today
Watching the trade reactions on X The Everything App would make you think the Mets traded Mickey Mantle in his prime
November 23, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Watching the trade reactions on X The Everything App would make you think the Mets traded Mickey Mantle in his prime
Every report on Tucker’s market has included a note along the lines of “the Mets absolutely covet Tucker but would need to find room to sign him” so
You expect them in on Tucker? They only have two long-term commitments at this point and now they have a place to play him
November 23, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Every report on Tucker’s market has included a note along the lines of “the Mets absolutely covet Tucker but would need to find room to sign him” so
Nimmo is a 10 percent above league average bat, absolutely imploding athleticism and decline markers, can barely play a corner outfield spot at this point, entering his age-33 season with five years left that the current FO didn’t sign. Getting “less bad contract that fits better” is a huge win
November 23, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Nimmo is a 10 percent above league average bat, absolutely imploding athleticism and decline markers, can barely play a corner outfield spot at this point, entering his age-33 season with five years left that the current FO didn’t sign. Getting “less bad contract that fits better” is a huge win
Dear god no
Bellinger a even better fit now?
November 23, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Dear god no
Reposted by Jarrett Seidler
Brandon Nimmo is the first millionaire to flee Zohran Mamdani's Communist New York City
November 23, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Brandon Nimmo is the first millionaire to flee Zohran Mamdani's Communist New York City
Aside from whatever weird clubhouse shit was happening in the background, the Mets desperately needed to get Nimmo off the roster or they were going to get very stuck. Getting back a very useful roster player back while dumping out of years 4 and 5 is uh bery good
in the sense of "can't believe" good or "can't believe" bad or just General Surprise
November 23, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Aside from whatever weird clubhouse shit was happening in the background, the Mets desperately needed to get Nimmo off the roster or they were going to get very stuck. Getting back a very useful roster player back while dumping out of years 4 and 5 is uh bery good
heard Nimmo was probably gone a few months ago, heard the contours of this trade a few days ago, can’t actually believe Stearns pulled it off
November 23, 2025 at 10:34 PM
heard Nimmo was probably gone a few months ago, heard the contours of this trade a few days ago, can’t actually believe Stearns pulled it off
Do you think George Washington would’ve rizzed up Baby Gronk
November 23, 2025 at 12:57 AM
Do you think George Washington would’ve rizzed up Baby Gronk
Paul Giamatti was born to play John Adams
November 22, 2025 at 1:16 AM
Paul Giamatti was born to play John Adams
"Coming this fall on ABC, a hit new show from Chuck Lorre, Two Men From Queens"
November 21, 2025 at 9:07 PM
"Coming this fall on ABC, a hit new show from Chuck Lorre, Two Men From Queens"
I think a lot about how virtual interactions replaced real life hangout spaces but then the virtual ones became too toxic and people started acting out of pocket so now a lot of people are just increasingly isolated
November 20, 2025 at 2:09 PM
I think a lot about how virtual interactions replaced real life hangout spaces but then the virtual ones became too toxic and people started acting out of pocket so now a lot of people are just increasingly isolated
woke player development Avengers assemble
It’s been really funny to see people crashing out over the first base coach as the Mets otherwise pay huge to give Mendoza the woke player development Avengers coaching staff
November 19, 2025 at 8:12 PM
woke player development Avengers assemble
the problem with trying to build a team through a series of individual hyperrational decisions is that you end up with a very efficient very average team
Mike Elias might be the most hyperrational executive in MLB history when it comes to pitching—for better and for worse. He’s been in charge of the Orioles for seven full years now and he’s never: 1) signed a pitcher to a guaranteed multi-year contract; or 2) drafted a pitcher with a top-50 pick.
November 19, 2025 at 5:59 PM
the problem with trying to build a team through a series of individual hyperrational decisions is that you end up with a very efficient very average team
Blake Burkhalter the first unprotect of the year I’ve come across that made me do a double take, feel like “former early round pick who looks good in stuff models and has decent upper minors performance and relief experience” is very much the type of guy who actually goes in R5???
November 19, 2025 at 12:20 AM
Blake Burkhalter the first unprotect of the year I’ve come across that made me do a double take, feel like “former early round pick who looks good in stuff models and has decent upper minors performance and relief experience” is very much the type of guy who actually goes in R5???