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Paul Johnson

@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social

5.4K followers 56 following 35 posts

From August, Provost, The Queen’s College, Oxford. Previously director, Institute for Fiscal Studies. Author “Follow the Money”

Paul Gavin Johnson is a British economist. Since 2025, he has been the provost of The Queen's College, Oxford. He served as director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies from 2011 until 2025. He is also a columnist for The Times, and a visiting professor in Economics at the Department of Economics, University College London. He is author of the best selling book Follow the Money and a frequent contributor to written and broadcast media. .. more

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Reposted by Paul Johnson

Wyn @rp2024.bsky.social · 21d

@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social Thank you for an excellent article in today's (20th September 2025) edition of the FT. A long-term overhaul and simplification of the UK's tax system is badly needed. #Reeves' kite flying of possible actions is both unprofessional and dangerous, isn't it?

Reposted by Paul Johnson, Paul Nightingale

Matthew Pinkney @matthewpinkney.bsky.social · 21d

Very well put by @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4moc6Qw

Britain must break from the grip of dysfunctional policymaking

Speculation over what might be in November’s Budget has left me depressed about our capacity for rational policies

Reposted by Paul Johnson

John Peters @johnthejack.bsky.social · 26d

Stamp duty is not the only way in which our housing tax system is outrageously inefficient and inequitable: council tax is regressive, being charged at higher rates on less expensive properties.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social

We need to move on from the dreadful stamp duty system

The cost of moving crisis, which dates back to Gordon Brown, must end — and there’s an obvious solution for how to make things fairer

www.thetimes.com

Reposted by Paul Johnson

UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 28d

"The reality is, if they want more spending on welfare and public services, and they want economic growth, they are going to have to get serious about broad-based tax increases."

✍️ @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social gives his two pence on the government's growth problem

What can Rachel Reeves learn from the 1970s IMF crisis? - UK in a changing Europe

Paul Johnson reflects on the 1970s IMF crisis and the key parallels and differences between then and the current challenges the government...

Reposted by Paul Johnson

UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · Sep 11

"The Greens and Corbyn to the left and Reform to the right peddle utterly incoherent, populist economic policies yet are taking large shares in opinion polls."

✍️ @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social argues the solution to the UK's fiscal problems is political not technocratic

ukandeu.ac.uk/what-can-rac...

What can Rachel Reeves learn from the 1970s IMF crisis? - UK in a changing Europe

Paul Johnson reflects on the 1970s IMF crisis and the key parallels and differences between then and the current challenges the government...

Reposted by Paul Johnson

Jill Rutter @jillongovt.bsky.social · Sep 1

interesting from @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social @thetimes.com (£) on the madness of remuneration in the public sector and the danger of false economies. www.thetimes.com/business-mon...

We need fat cats in the public sector if we want the best policy

Public sector pay is a fraction of what similar private sector roles command

www.thetimes.com

Reposted by Paul Johnson

Jill Rutter @jillongovt.bsky.social · Aug 18

sensible stuff on the "revived" Pensions Commission from @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social in @thetimes.com www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
Here's @instituteforgovernment.org.uk take on lessons this Pensions Commission should learn from its predecessor www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/new-...

Pensions commission must resist being warned off triple lock

It would be absurd to have a report on the future sustainability of the pension system without addressing this most fundamental of questions

www.thetimes.com

Hope IS a strategic plan

I’ve been thinking and having conversations around hope recently, including my last blog post. And like often happens, when you think about something you notice a lot of others thinking and writing about the same thing. Probably because we need more hope today.

Reposts 0 Jul 31

Reposted by Paul Johnson

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Dec 18

NEW PODCAST: How is tax damaging the housing market?

@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social, Stuart Adam and Tim Leunig discuss how certain taxes impact the housing market, affecting affordability, renting, and homeownership.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

Reposted by Paul Johnson, Melinda Mills

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Dec 23

PODCAST: How big are the UK's demographic challenges?

With birth rates at record lows @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social, @melindacmills.bsky.social and Carl Emmerson discuss the implications for the UK and how it might impact the public finances.

🎧 Listen here: https://buff.ly/3YD8S1P

Reposted by Paul Johnson

Robert Colvile @rcolvile.bsky.social · Jan 6

In his column today, @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social makes the same point I did about social care/NHS/local govt. It makes absolutely no sense to do a big social care review and a massive local govt reorganisation (and an NHS 10-year plan) as separate processes on separate timescales.

Reposted by Paul Johnson

uekto.bsky.social @uekto.bsky.social · Feb 27

Just finished ‘Follow the Money’. Excellent. Clarity of thinking and comprehensive. Often I despair but you offer some hope. I even understood - ! - the stats. Thank you. Interesting to compare the changes since the last election. Why aren’t you Chancellor?!

Reposted by Paul Johnson

Will Dunn @willdunn.bsky.social · Mar 13

I'm reminded of the brilliant section on NHS reform and counter-reform in Follow the Money by @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social

Reposted by Paul Johnson

toby1kenobi @toby1kenobi.bsky.social · Mar 27

Good episode, thanks - good to hear @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social on the statement (made me feel slightly less gloomy!)

Reposted by Paul Johnson

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Apr 10

NEW: Where and how does the government spend its money?

@beeboileau.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social's new interactive tool allows you to explore where and how the government spends money, over time and across the UK.

📊 Explore the data: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...

Reposted by Paul Johnson

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Apr 10

NEW PODCAST: What's the future of corporation tax?

60 years after its introduction, @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social
is joined by @helenmiller.bsky.social and Deloitte UK's Amanda Tickel to discuss all things corporation tax in our latest podcast.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/wha...

Reposted by Paul Johnson

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Apr 14

📰 Drastic times need drastic action: breaking the 50-year tax taboo.

Read @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social's column in @thetimes.com 👇

www.thetimes.com/business-mon...

Drastic times need drastic action: breaking the 50-year tax taboo

Rachel Reeves should consider increasing the basic rate, just as Denis Healey did in 1975

www.thetimes.com

Reposted by Paul Johnson

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Jun 11

NEW: Spending Review explained in under 90 seconds.

@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social summarises what we heard in today's #SpendingReview and what the announcements mean:

Reposted by Paul Johnson

Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · Jun 11

Surprisingly mealy-mouthed responses from commentators with pretty obvious axes to grind. With friends like these… well, good luck to any centre-left party.

Has Rachel Reeves made the right choices? Our panel responds to the spending review

The chancellor announced spending on health, housing, defence, and infrastructure. But will it be felt by ordinary voters? Polly Toynbee, Kirsty Major, Sahil Dutta, Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah and Jonn...

www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Paul Johnson

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Jun 12

Average annual real growth in total departmental spending over this parliament is set to be 2.3%.

This is below the previous parliament’s average of 3.6%, but higher than the last government had outlined.

@beeboileau.bsky.social on the big picture choices in the Spending Review:

Reposted by Paul Johnson

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Jun 12

NEW: The popularity of new childcare entitlements could leave spending from 2026 onwards £1 billion higher than originally forecast.

Read @ckfarquharson.bsky.social’s briefing on what the Spending Review means for childcare entitlements: ifs.org.uk/articles/pop...

Quote from IFS Associate Director Christine Farquharson: "Yesterday’s Spending Review announced a significant top-up to funding for these new childcare entitlements, with around £640 million more spending in 2028 than had been implied by the March 2023 plans. But it still leaves the country spending more than it had originally planned on new childcare entitlements. If that’s because there are more parents in paid work, it could be very good news indeed for growth – but it is too early to tell whether (or to what extent) that really is the cause of higher spending."

Reposted by Paul Johnson

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Jun 12

NEW PODCAST: Spending Review 2025: What it means and why it matters

🎙️ @PJTheEconomist.bsky.social, @helenmiller.bsky.social‬ and @benzaranko.bsky.social discuss what the Spending Review means for public services, government investment, and the broader economic outlook: ifs.org.uk/articles/spe...

Spending Review 2025: What it means and why it matters | Institute for Fiscal Studies

We take a closer look at the Spending Review and what the policies mean for public services, investment and the wider economy.

Reposted by Paul Johnson

Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · Jun 13

A day late and a dollar short - my productivity is not what it ought to be... Yesterday Rethink on Radio 4 covered Britain's productivity failings. Thanks to my fabulous guests @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social, @margaretheffernan.bsky.social, Gareth Davies from the NAO, and Leslie Perlow from HBS.

BBC Sounds - Rethink, Rethink... productivity

What are the factors behind the UK’s chronically weak productivity growth?

Reposted by Paul Johnson

Matt Severn @mattsevern.bsky.social · Jul 23

Some light train reading to and from the Police & Fire panel today. Books by @samfr.bsky.social and @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social. So far, sampling both, they are very scary, very concerning and very good. I wish the government would read things like this & not newspaper headlines, X feeds & tealeaves

Paul Johnson @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social · Jul 24

Thanks Matt. I too can recommend @samfr.bsky.social great book. Glad you like mine too.

Matt Severn @mattsevern.bsky.social · Jul 23

Some light train reading to and from the Police & Fire panel today. Books by @samfr.bsky.social and @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social. So far, sampling both, they are very scary, very concerning and very good. I wish the government would read things like this & not newspaper headlines, X feeds & tealeaves

Following “natural lines”

And holding on to that thread. [Photo from gardens at Heian Jingu Shrine in Kyoto.]

Reposts 0 Jul 13

Reposted by Paul Johnson

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Jul 4

NEW PODCAST: How to fix UK pensions?

@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social is joined by Carl Emmerson and @laurenceobrien.bsky.social to discuss whether people in the UK will be able to afford a decent standard of living in retirement.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

Reposted by Richard Blundell

Reposted by Susan J. Smith

Paul Johnson @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social · Jun 27

Climbdown on benefit changes will hit public finances by c£3bn. Adds to Chancellor's problems, but not huge. Real problem is this, plus climbdown on winter fuel payments, suggests govt can't make any cuts to spending. With no fiscal headroom leaves taxes as only margin of adjustment.

Reposted by Paul Johnson

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Jun 27

NEW: Changes to health-related benefit reforms would reduce saving from the planned bill by £3 billion in 2029–30, but would create a huge difference in support between claimants.

Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...

Quote from IFS Associate Director Tom Waters: "These changes more than halve the saving of the package of reforms as a whole, making the Chancellor’s already difficult Budget balancing act that much harder. The decision is to protect existing health-related benefit claimants from the reforms, thereby making the savings entirely from new claimants to these benefits. This will create big differences – thousands of pounds a year, for many years in some cases – between similar people with similar health conditions who happen to have applied at a slightly different time."