Paul Bivand
@paulbivand.bsky.social
1.2K followers 1K following 910 posts
Labour market stats wonk: default mode: cynical. Boosts are not endorsements and may be ironic. Also on avian-dinosaur-site @PaulBivand
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Reposted by Paul Bivand
fietsersteve.bsky.social
National Highways have a habit of preventing active travel routes from progressing, they need a total change of management and a corruption investigation. bsky.app/profile/theh...
thehregroup.bsky.social
What this delightful scene in #StowMariesNatureReserve needs is a big batch of concrete, courtesy of National Highways.
Fortunately, that's what the company hopes to inflict on this elegant bridge before removing its emergency road closure.
Cost to the taxpayer: £500K.
Lovely.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
tomsasse.bsky.social
A new disruptive transport technology is rapidly changing cities across the rich world. It is not the self-driving electric car, but the humble bicycle, writes @dlknowles.bsky.social www.economist.com/internationa...
Forget EVs. Cycling is revolutionising transport
Pedal power is booming, spinning up a new culture war
www.economist.com
paulbivand.bsky.social
As a clownish amateur, repeating (R) forecast::auto.arima() on different iterations of thee data time series would get you a very passable hedgehog, with the bristles getting less bristly as the period of flat productivity lengthens.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
mcopelov.bsky.social
👇🎯🧵

The Narrative™️ cannot fail. It can only be failed. "College isn't worth it for employment anymore & AI is taking all the jobs" edition.
samthorpe.bsky.social
It turns out that once you correct for this error, unemployment is actually rising faster for NON-degree workers - meaning that explanations in terms of AI replacing the college-educated workforce don't make much sense, and this looks a lot more like an across-the-board labor market slowdown.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
timleunig.bsky.social
Outstanding from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - the best way to get a job is to get a degree. You will almost almost always earn more as well.
benansell.bsky.social
Really interesting article from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com but especially intriguing to me is the number of comments below that are essentially 'OK the data don't agree with my hunch but here's an unrelated statement that proves that I'm right about AI, the death of higher education, etc'
What the graduate unemployment story gets wrong
People with a degree are faring better, not worse than their non-graduate counterparts
www.ft.com
Reposted by Paul Bivand
benansell.bsky.social
Really interesting article from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com but especially intriguing to me is the number of comments below that are essentially 'OK the data don't agree with my hunch but here's an unrelated statement that proves that I'm right about AI, the death of higher education, etc'
What the graduate unemployment story gets wrong
People with a degree are faring better, not worse than their non-graduate counterparts
www.ft.com
Reposted by Paul Bivand
francescoppola.bsky.social
Economic lessons from a Biblical fable: my latest piece at
@themintmag
.
Pharoah, advised by the talented Joseph, stored up enough grain to survive a famine, and in so doing engineered a fundamental change in the organisation of Egyptian society.

www.themintmagazine.com/from-reserve...
From Reserves to Repression – The Mint Magazine
www.themintmagazine.com
Reposted by Paul Bivand
annadent.bsky.social
ICO orders DWP to

"disclose the list of all AI tools DWP plans to place on the Algorithmic Transparency Recording Standards Hub"

I.e. publish details of all the AI they are using unless there is a valid reason to keep it secret

h/t @rightsnet.org.uk
Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)
ico.org.uk
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Reposted by Paul Bivand
dlknowles.bsky.social
By me this week - the happiest thing I've got to report of late, with a glorious trip over the summer to Montreal

"Forget EVs. Cycling is revolutionising transport."

www.economist.com/internationa...
Forget EVs. Cycling is revolutionising transport
Pedal power is booming, spinning up a new culture war
www.economist.com
paulbivand.bsky.social
Did US railroads use 1 chain measuring tapes?
Reposted by Paul Bivand
theifs.bsky.social
NEW: The UK social security system offers relatively little income protection after job loss.

THREAD on Martin Mikloš and @xiaoweixu.bsky.social's IFS Green Budget chapter on the options for introducing ‘unemployment insurance’:
Chart shows net replacement rates in unemployment for a single homeowner with no children. Title states: "Unemployment benefits in the UK are low compared to OECD countries, and contributory benefits are no higher than means-tested benefits."
Reposted by Paul Bivand
omaromalleykhan.bsky.social
Sometimes a statistic is counterintuitive. This is not one: every adult in Britain has experienced greater interaction with people of different ethnic backgrounds over their lifetime

As I say in this thread, this statistical fact is obvious in every aspect of our lives, & all of us know/feel it
omaromalleykhan.bsky.social
I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter

Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Reposted by Paul Bivand
hetanshah.bsky.social
Great column from @sarahoconnorft.ft.com where she casts her forensic eye over the introduction of collective bargaining in the social care sector. TL:DR it could work given adult care is a weird market largely paid for by local authorities; but as usual will there be enough cash? on.ft.com/4mSfeVm
The most radical Labour plan you haven’t heard about
Collective bargaining in social care could save an ailing sector — but only if it’s done properly
on.ft.com
paulbivand.bsky.social
Looked at OECD data on ageing population, and think we may have missed the fiscal effects of declining numbers of children. OECD chart ages only, France as similar population, more extreme changes.
Chart from OECD data showing age dependency rations (of 20-64 population) for UK and France from 1950 on.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
samfr.bsky.social
This whole obsession with "too many people going to uni" is such a classic example of the parochialism of UK policymaking. No one bothers to ask why the % here is lower than in most other developed countries or whether that might be relevant.
paulbivand.bsky.social
Visiting Czechoslovakia in 1972, 4 years after the tanks went in, might be a study in propaganda.
paulbivand.bsky.social
With the demand following graduate earnings premia over A Levels or GCSEs. The case for young people doing qualifications below degrees based on earning/employment isn't clear, despite loud (and usually self-interested) voices.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
jamesrball.com
A pub in London Fields is trying to put up a timber canopy over its outside seating.

The planning process so far has taken FIVE YEARS. That’s longer than it took to build the entire Hoover Dam. capx.co/nimby-watch-...
READ MORE
Hackney council is coming down on a popular East London pub
capx.co
paulbivand.bsky.social
Fortunately, no evidence yet that AI thinks hallucinating debts is just fine.
paulbivand.bsky.social
So this is a partially AI report into the earlier version of AI known as 'Robodebt' which penalised low-income Australians on imaginary evidence. @annadent.bsky.social
Reposted by Paul Bivand
jamesrball.com
Reminder: this is to put a canopy on an existing outdoor pub deck. 🙃
Let’s take a look at this application. The application form is 21 pages long, and that’s just the very beginning. It has 26 supporting documents attached to it. Among them is a 16-page proposal document prepared by the consultancy Magenta Planning. There is a six page long form on the Community Infrastructure Levy. There is a 14-page long biodiversity survey and report, prepared by Arbtech, a second consultancy. That’s in turn dwarfed by a 59-page long heritage assessment, produced by Cotswold Archaeology – a third consultancy. And there’s absolutely no guarantee that this application will even succeed.
paulbivand.bsky.social
Though on the nimby/yimby dimension, conservatives look more like Lib Dems and Ramsay/Chowns Greens, and fairly clearly that has had an impact on local council votes.