Pinebrook
pinebrookcap.bsky.social
Pinebrook
@pinebrookcap.bsky.social
650 followers 410 following 65 posts
https://www.pinebrookcap.com
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Maybe it's different this time.

Good luck on Fed Vortex Hell Trading Day.
The odds of this gold correction being over don't look good to me.

Finally, over the past decade gold basically hugs and reverts back to the 50dma. We have a few hundred points to go.
Average peak to trough was 5-months.

Remove the 17-month tail and that number shrinks to 3-months.
Here is a table that shows the top 11 peak to troughs since this secular bull started in 2006.
Gold caught an overnight bid. Hearing some people are dipping in. Dovish Fed, blah blah.

Here's a chart with price action from the last 10-days.

Classic lower highs, weakening bounce.

Whatever. It's a chart.
Thank you to my subscribers and followers who’ve shown nothing but positive feedback and support.

Made Substack’s “Top 20 rising in finance”.
Reposted by Pinebrook
2 years and 165 posts later. 👇

The good the bad and the ugly. With embedded links and paywalls removed.

www.pinebrookcap.com/p/anniversar...
Anniversary Retrospective
Pinebrook’s Substack Turns 2
www.pinebrookcap.com
2 years and 165 posts later. 👇

The good the bad and the ugly. With embedded links and paywalls removed.

www.pinebrookcap.com/p/anniversar...
Anniversary Retrospective
Pinebrook’s Substack Turns 2
www.pinebrookcap.com
From behind the paywall.
Why do you say that? Earnings and margins are the best real time productivity indicator and they are on fire.
Dm me and I will comp you a sub.
This was my view back on May 11th and still my view now.

The narrow window for a cut was in June.

Oh see that 6500? 😂
Reposted by Pinebrook
Dave Cervantes (@pinebrookcap.bsky.social ) is one of my fave people on FinTwit, and we've had an offline and ongoing conversation about macro for quite some time. (He can confirm how often I'm wrong.)

Nice to share some of that convo with the rest of you!

www.pinebrookcap.com/p/guy-berger...
Guy Berger Joins Pinebrookcap for a discussion about the U.S. labor market.
Get after future potential evolutions.
www.pinebrookcap.com
Been a while since I’ve shown my face here. want to share a link of a podcast I did with @econberger.bsky.social where he shares his views on the current state of the U.S. labor market.

No paywall!

www.pinebrookcap.com/p/guy-berger...
Guy Berger Joins Pinebrookcap for a discussion about the U.S. labor market.
Get after future potential evolutions.
www.pinebrookcap.com
Maybe this will persist due to regime change.

Maybe they get more stretched and stay there.

But the money tree roulette table doesn’t always work in one direction unless the game has changed.

Maybe it has. But so far it’s just politicians talking.

/FIN
Now. Here is the crazy thing. These things are looking stretched.

China and Europe are at negative 2 standard deviations compared to short USA.

Japan over 1-sigma. And EMM is approaching 1-sigma.
This is how are those pairs are doing today on a price basis, not inclusive of borrow costs or dividends.
This exercise was repeated a few days later with Europe and Japan (IEUR EWJ DXJ).
I think the key insight was in contextualizing the outperformance vs the foreign selloff of Q4 2024, using a 100d rolling average, with the following conclusion.
Lots of folks very excited about the foreign vs USA trades, which has been a home run YTD.

This was explored in the newsletter back in Feb, and published on 2/19 the day SPX made its local peak.

www.pinebrookcap.com/p/market-com...
Market Commentary
Mean Reversion: Part 1
www.pinebrookcap.com
Reposted by Pinebrook
Surgery went very well yesterday, and I’m feeling good today (and it’s birthday 49 🎉). One more big step toward cancer free! ❤️