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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
44K followers 250 following 1.4K posts
ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · Mar 28
Updated NFL analytics staffer list!*

As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.

(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)
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Reposted by Seth Walder
katflandermeyer.bsky.social
Kat Flandermeyer @katflandermeyer.bsky.social · 6h
cam skattebo runs like a deer that wandered into a convenience store and is now mowing down candy aisles trying to figure out where the window is
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 7h
would love TD probability by time for this one. a rollercoaster.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 14h
Abdul Carter ranks third in pass rush win rate over the last two weeks.

Relevant for where one of my models saw value in tonight's game!

www.espn.com/espn/betting...
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Reposted by Seth Walder
billbarnwell.com
Bill Barnwell @billbarnwell.com · 17h
Found a fun Jets stat for the podcast:

Across their final 17 games with Robert Saleh, the Jets had the league's best defense by points per drive and EPA per play.

In their subsequent 17 games without Saleh, the Jets have had the league's worst defense by the same metrics.
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 18h
From last night: wrote about the interesting CB-for-CB swap, a challenge trade but with each bringing a very different contract situation.

www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d
this is brief-appearance-on-survivor erasure!!
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d
I’ll be on ESPN BET Live in ~12 minutes or so! ESPN2!
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d
Feels only fair since I've been hyping him up so much to point out Armand Membou had a tough pass block win rate game (81%) vs. Cowboys.

Watched the losses and a couple weren't actually bad but still, not great.

Drops Membou to a 91% PBWR for the season, now 22nd out of 57 qualifying OTs.
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d
In the preseason I made a bold prediction for all 32 teams.

Today I re-evaluated them, checking in on the good calls, maaaaaaybe calls and awful calls: www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d
James Houston has recorded .053 sacks per pass rush in his career.

Just for comparison Myles Garrett's career number is .031.
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 1d
Bengals chances to make the playoffs according to FPI moved from 9% yesterday with Jake Browning to 9% today with Joe Flacco.
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 2d
Trade grades for the Joe Flacco deal!

www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 2d
Ex-New York exacta at the top of the QBR leaderboard.

$2 bet on that in the preseason probably would've had a heck of a payout.
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 3d
weird timeout for Jags. let Chiefs take that one.
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 3d
he does it with flair and i respect it
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Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 4d
Bills should have gone for 2!

We usually show the advantage to go for 2 down 4 points around 8-9 minutes left in the fourth quarter.
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 4d
nice
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 4d
Punting on 4th-and-3 at the 50? Yuck.
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 4d
I do think it's interesting what is credulously considered a pass attempt and what it is not.

This ball landed like 6-7 yards away from a player who was less than 10 yards away from the quarterback.
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 4d
any given sunday titans can hang with any middling team.

all they need is for their opponent to drop a touchdown before they cross the goalline and to throw a pick and have the defenders fumble it into the end zone. that's it.
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 4d
oh my god oh my god titans
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 4d
Tampa Bay kicking PAT is the right call, imo. Too much time left. Conversion results in induced aggression (another way to put it: teams are usually sub-optimally conservative when tied -- and that goes away when down 1).
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sethwalder.bsky.social
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 4d
tired: kick the PAT down 9 because you can't think ahead

wired: go for 2 down 9 so you find out if you missed the conversion now instead of later

inspired: kick the PAT down 9 so you find out if you missed the PAT now instead of later
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Reposted by Seth Walder
mikevorkunov.bsky.social
Mike Vorkunov @mikevorkunov.bsky.social · 4d
I'm also a huge fantasy football junkie so I've started a list for accounts who can be helpful for fantasy football junkies like me (and I'll keep updating it and adding to it). It's here: bsky.app/profile/did:...
mikevorkunov.bsky.social
Mike Vorkunov @mikevorkunov.bsky.social · 4d
It feels like people are continuing to trickle onto Bluesky and we're getting more users here. If you're looking for NBA and WNBA accounts to follow, I've got a starter pack for you. Just click the button and follow everyone
go.bsky.app/FGmgtea
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Reposted by Seth Walder
natetice.bsky.social
Nate Tice @natetice.bsky.social · 4d
I think Baron Browning has the Titans silent cadence timed up
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