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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 7h

Checks in on who runs zenith research…

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 7h

Maine moved left 4 points in 2024 from 2020 in terms of PVI. Assume another 2 (liberal big city expats keep moving there, seen in L2 data). Collins didn’t win by 8.5 if they actually run RCV, more like 6.5 probably maybe less. Right away you make up a lot of margin.

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 7h

I think the idea you want to increase variance in Maine is overstated because Collins didn’t actually win by as much as the top line in 2020 and Maine has swung and continues to swing left.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 9h

An entire very popular podcast series based on this fact!

William B. Fuckley @opinionhaver.bsky.social · 10h

Entire way of experiencing movies that zoomers will never remember, that people my age barely remember, where you watched something because it was on. Feels like there is an entire genre of movie that was meant to be seen in that format. You couldn’t make Swordfish (2001) today.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 9h

Writing up the informed poll as meaningful is silly. Obviously name rec matters but without counter messaging it’s meaningless. The thing with mills is she’s already defined so we can trust the poll more. yes I know she’s too old but for the sake of democracy all that matters is winning this year.

Poll Tracker 📊 @polltracker.bsky.social · 1d

substack.perfectunion.us/p/poll-platn...

Poll: Platner Best Positioned Maine Dem to Defeat Susan Collins

After respondents were shown short biographies for both candidates, Graham Platner leads Sen. Susan Collins by 14 points, while Gov. Janet Mills leads Collins by 8 points.

substack.perfectunion.us

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 13h

I think we need to be prepared for Trump doing a blanket pardon of all acts undertaken by all members of the administration. Sometimes I think we should be quiet about who we intend to prosecute or think about civil actions we intend to take in this scenario.

Mike Black @mikeblack114.bsky.social · 15h

So the Dems need to be clear again that any FMer carrying out direction to implement mil paychecks in the absence of appropriations will be subject to anti-deficiency act criminal penalties, because to be clear even with the reconciliation slush fund BS there is no way to legally so this, period

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 16h

Great example of how bad their theory of the liberal mind is at the moment. bsky.app/profile/lena...

Lena Sun @lenasun.bsky.social · 20h

NEW: @CDCgov hit hard by massive firings that several staff describe to me as a “bloodbath.”
Among those RIFd:
—leadership of the center for immunization and respiratory diseases;
—leadership of global health center
—leadership of the measles outbreak response; 1/4

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 1d

I don't know, I think allowing a gulf state to have a military base in Idaho will be extremely unpopular and something Democrats can use to good effect. Can somebody remind me if the United States having airbases in the Arabian peninsula ever caused any issues?

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Hegseth: "I'm also proud that today we're signing a letter of acceptance to build a Qatari Emeri air force facility at the Mountain Home Airbase in Idaho."

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 1d

If you're a Dem leaning DOT staffer, are you actually mad at them for shutting down the government and you getting laid off or are you thinking the shutdown is just an excuse to do what they want anyway?

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 1d

Vought seems to think Dems care about layoffs in response to the shutdown but it's a total misread of the situationbecause they've already shown they'd do it anyway with DOGE and they killed USAID illegally, so there aren't Federal employees who think there's a deal to be made.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

Would it have been better with an early shutdown

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

I dunno. Not wrong!

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

@econberger.bsky.social where would this be on the chart?

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

Kellen Moore, good at the job of being an OC.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

But also yes. Harris would have had an easier time because there wasn’t the possibility of Trump.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

His majority was thin and not completely unresponsive to public opinion though, and elections are a year away at most?

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

Kind of a speed run of US post 9/11.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

I think this is true but I do think worth noting that Israeli public opinion moved a lot more towards wanting the war to end over the last year. American leadership matters but Israel does in fact have its own politics and autonomy. bsky.app/profile/exum...

Andrew Exum @exum.bsky.social · 2d

This week has confirmed my suspicion that Biden’s Middle East policies will look worse, and will be even more embarrassing for Democrats, with the passage of time.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

What this image presupposes is that the ravens will get a turnover again in 2025.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

Okay it will be darkly funny if Bari Weiss joins CBS at exactly the time that the issue of Israel becomes a lot less salient.

max tani @maxtani.bsky.social · 2d

New: Bari Weiss booked Hillary Clinton, Mike Pompeo, and Antony Blinken for a roundtable on Gaza, her first major move at CBS.

Notably on a CBS call today in which the panel was floated, one producer also repeatedly emphasized the need to hear from Palestinians in Gaza (Weiss did not respond).

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

If they dropped her age and put "stood up to trump" and dropped all the climate stuff i bet it is much better.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

Eastern District of Virginia grand juries showing what many people already know: the grand jury protection is basically worthless.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

Remember that in 2014 republicans hated their party also, Cantor lost a primary. Hating your party is a sign that your voters are really engaged.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

53%. Anyway basically the tradeoff between regression to the mean kicks in. My guess is 54% Dems in 2pv (accounting for uncontested seats) in part because LV>RV

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d

when people don't vote, we win.

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