Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

I think this is true but I do think worth noting that Israeli public opinion moved a lot more towards wanting the war to end over the last year. American leadership matters but Israel does in fact have its own politics and autonomy. bsky.app/profile/exum...

Andrew Exum @exum.bsky.social · 10h

This week has confirmed my suspicion that Biden’s Middle East policies will look worse, and will be even more embarrassing for Democrats, with the passage of time.

3 4 22

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 10h

What this image presupposes is that the ravens will get a turnover again in 2025.

1 6

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 10h

Okay it will be darkly funny if Bari Weiss joins CBS at exactly the time that the issue of Israel becomes a lot less salient.

max tani @maxtani.bsky.social · 11h

New: Bari Weiss booked Hillary Clinton, Mike Pompeo, and Antony Blinken for a roundtable on Gaza, her first major move at CBS.

Notably on a CBS call today in which the panel was floated, one producer also repeatedly emphasized the need to hear from Palestinians in Gaza (Weiss did not respond).

1 1 9

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 12h

If they dropped her age and put "stood up to trump" and dropped all the climate stuff i bet it is much better.

2 1

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 12h

Eastern District of Virginia grand juries showing what many people already know: the grand jury protection is basically worthless.

4 1 8

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 16h

Remember that in 2014 republicans hated their party also, Cantor lost a primary. Hating your party is a sign that your voters are really engaged.

2

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 16h

53%. Anyway basically the tradeoff between regression to the mean kicks in. My guess is 54% Dems in 2pv (accounting for uncontested seats) in part because LV>RV

1

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 16h

when people don't vote, we win.

1 2

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 16h

Eh, 2017/2018 was the outlier. This is from @davidshor.bsky.social using q1, I don't know what q3 would say, but to me the key thing is the slope really isn't that large. It'll end up around 54% of 2pv for Dems because it usually does.

1 1

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 16h

Worse, but of course in 2016 we'd just won the presidency by 2.1 rather than 2024 losing it by 1.5 so in terms of swing from national environment it's probably about the same?

3 6

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17h

Feel like people aren't afraid enough of AI video generation capabilities www.instagram.com/reel/DPEqBL0...

1 3 4

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17h

But also people really are now talking about the ACA a lot more and the shutdown helped make that happen.

1 5

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17h

Just to put some recent news stories and salience levels into perspective.

3 9 39

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18h

This is just not a headline Dems were getting two weeks ago. bsky.app/profile/atru...

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 18h

Marjorie Taylor Greene on CNN (!): "I'm getting phone calls from people that are saying if the ACA tax credits expire, they aren't gonna be able to have health insurance. They're going to have to drop it."

1 5

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18h

oh my god finally fiftyplusone.news/latest-polls

FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages

A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.

fiftyplusone.news

1 3 18

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18h

And right now I think there are two options, Democrats win and health care gets extended and at the very least we get a lot of headlines that are "democrats win health care fight." Other option is they kill the filibuster in order to kill health care subsidies, which would be perfect politics.

1 1 14

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18h

I disagree with this because of salience. Every day politics is about healthcare is a good day for Democrats. Zero days were about healthcare until the shutdown and now lots of days are about healthcare.

Leonid Baezhnev @rev-avocado.bsky.social · 18h

Like if we get a "win" here and permanently extend Obamacare subsidies, it will have meaningful concrete benefits for people, but I think it will be a political loss for Democrats, because the worse things are for the country, the better things are for them and for beating Trumpism.

3 5 40

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 1d

Really hoping silicon graphite anodes make 600 mile range a reality sooner rather than later

1