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Dustin Jalbert

@2x4caster.bsky.social

2K followers 390 following 680 posts

Wood products/ housing/ Mainer in the Boston suburbs

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Nov 13

Alright, I gave this a shot, but I'm sure I'm missing people here.

Let me know who should be added!

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Mar 13

Meant to post this here yesterday.

Viewpoint we posted a few days ago for subscribers, but have decided to post without the paywall.

Check it out!

www.fastmarkets.com/insights/doe...

Does the US really need Canadian wood products supply? - Fastmarkets

Understand how the 25% tariffs on Canadian goods would impact US lumber markets, and how reliant the US market is on Canadian lumber supply.

www.fastmarkets.com

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Mar 7

*habitat

Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Mar 7

Hard to say, but for reference, here's how harvesting has changed on federal lands over the decades. A dramatic drop since the 1990's.

Loosening permitting and habit protection rules even a little could move the needle.

It's quite complicated though, so hard to say.

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Feb 20

Seems bad!

Reposted by Dustin Jalbert

Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · Feb 13

Can imagine some things shaking out inflation dynamics in the coming months but for the time being inflation looks to be headed toward 2% as lags and quirks fall out of the 12-month window.

Lags in housing and wages + stock market outperformance account for 45 of the remaining 55bp overshoot

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Feb 11

Sorry *converted product is sourced from

Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Feb 11

Sounds like they will try to crack down on fabricated steel and aluminum products too. But we'll see how successful that is, feels hugely inflation even beyond construction

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Feb 11

Yeah, steel likely shows up in rebar, components (think truss systems) and then potentially appliances, furnishings etc to finish a home, although depends on where the concrete product is sourced from.

Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Feb 11

That's just on top line total construction costs I'm guessing? Nonresidential/apartment construction sees a bigger impact than single family residential construction?

Reposted by Dustin Jalbert

Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · Feb 11

If the tariff is on fabricated steel, double those numbers.

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Reposted by Dustin Jalbert

Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · Feb 11

A 20% tariff on mill steel, after all shipping, fabrication, delivery and labor for installation is = 5% cost increase on structural steel installed. That is = to 0.5% increase to total building final cost.

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Feb 11

So how much are these steel and aluminum tariffs gonna add to construction costs @edzarenski.bsky.social?

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Feb 10

I would be surprised if there aren't exceptions on milling your own wood for constructing a personal dwelling. My father has built many homes, several with his own milled framing lumber...don't think it was ever an issue as long as dimensions met code.

Selling commercially would be a issue though.

Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Feb 10

Yeah, agreed. Even just to illustrate. I think he overestimates 1) the number of people with wood lots and necessary equipment to operate a sawmill 2) people willing to put in the work to saw your own lumber (it's literally back breaking work on a small portable sawmill)

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Feb 10

It's hard to say how much of this very small scale sawmill operations are out there operating. But, at best we are talking a few percentage points on top of the commercial capacity base (which we can measure pretty well)

And there's no way we have more spare capacity than post GFC. My two cents.

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Reposted by Dustin Jalbert

Kyle Conway 康有为 @kc-lumberguy.bsky.social · Feb 5

First time posting my actual work on Bluesky.

I updated my Lumber & Logs charts last night, with 2023 FAO stats. 🧵

Starting with Softwood Lumber Production...

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Reposted by Dustin Jalbert

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · Feb 4

JOLTS:

1/ Tentative evidence that labor market stabilization may be underway. Hires and quits haven't fallen much since late summer.

We've had headfakes like this before so I'm cautious, but stabilization is my baseline for 2025 (this is Dec 2024 data).

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Feb 4

Good summary on the agricultural commodities impacted if 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico do happen.

Yours truly also makes a late appearance!

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Dustin Jalbert @2x4caster.bsky.social · Feb 3

Key takeaway from today seems to be that team "Trump isn't serious about tariffs" probably right.

All the bluster and grief directed at Canada just to turn around and punt on tariffs when Canada largely just reaffirmed pledges from December seems pretty telling.

What am I missing?