Assessing the true stability of slow-dynamic ecosystems, such as forests, remains a major challenge in ecology. Beyond advancing our understanding of ecosystem functioning, this issue has critical implications for predicting their long-term trajectories and improving management strategies. Here, we integrate theoretical modeling with field and remote sensing data to evaluate the stability of a potential alternative stable state within Central African tropical moist forests: the Marantaceae forest. As forests face increasing disturbances, the model accounts for the combined effects of fire and forestry on the relative stability of forest types. Long-term simulations predict notable shifts in the Central African forest mosaic under certain scenarios, informing sustainable management approaches.

YouTube video by César Leblanc