Aleksander Molak
@alxndrmlk.bsky.social
"The Causal Guy" http://causalpython.io
Author || Advisor || Educator
Host at http://CausalBanditsPodcast.com
Causal ML Tutor @ Uni of Oxford
CausalSky: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:imz3rf35poonl7yxt7bogui4/feed/aaamrclcu3tfa
Author || Advisor || Educator
Host at http://CausalBanditsPodcast.com
Causal ML Tutor @ Uni of Oxford
CausalSky: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:imz3rf35poonl7yxt7bogui4/feed/aaamrclcu3tfa
Cannot Answer Exactly?
Try Causal Bounds
Answering causal questions might be difficult. Causal bounds offer a useful alternative when exact answers are not possible.
Why does it matter?
1/
#CausalSky #EpiSky #StatSky #MLSky
Try Causal Bounds
Answering causal questions might be difficult. Causal bounds offer a useful alternative when exact answers are not possible.
Why does it matter?
1/
#CausalSky #EpiSky #StatSky #MLSky
November 24, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Cannot Answer Exactly?
Try Causal Bounds
Answering causal questions might be difficult. Causal bounds offer a useful alternative when exact answers are not possible.
Why does it matter?
1/
#CausalSky #EpiSky #StatSky #MLSky
Try Causal Bounds
Answering causal questions might be difficult. Causal bounds offer a useful alternative when exact answers are not possible.
Why does it matter?
1/
#CausalSky #EpiSky #StatSky #MLSky
Do Counterfactuals Break Bayesianism?
And What Are Causal Bounds Useful For?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #EconSky #StatSky #EpiSky
And What Are Causal Bounds Useful For?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #EconSky #StatSky #EpiSky
November 23, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Do Counterfactuals Break Bayesianism?
And What Are Causal Bounds Useful For?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #EconSky #StatSky #EpiSky
And What Are Causal Bounds Useful For?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #EconSky #StatSky #EpiSky
$145M for a Causal AI Startup
Jensen Huang: "Nvidia is using (it) with great success"
Causal AI marketing analytics startup Alembic Technologies closed a $145 million Series B round, propelling its valuation almost 16x.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #StatSky
Jensen Huang: "Nvidia is using (it) with great success"
Causal AI marketing analytics startup Alembic Technologies closed a $145 million Series B round, propelling its valuation almost 16x.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #StatSky
November 17, 2025 at 9:29 AM
$145M for a Causal AI Startup
Jensen Huang: "Nvidia is using (it) with great success"
Causal AI marketing analytics startup Alembic Technologies closed a $145 million Series B round, propelling its valuation almost 16x.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #StatSky
Jensen Huang: "Nvidia is using (it) with great success"
Causal AI marketing analytics startup Alembic Technologies closed a $145 million Series B round, propelling its valuation almost 16x.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #StatSky
Is Your Recommender Shooting in the Dark?
And Why Did Jensen Huang Decide to Invest in a Causal AI Startup?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #RecSysSky #MLSky #AISky
And Why Did Jensen Huang Decide to Invest in a Causal AI Startup?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #RecSysSky #MLSky #AISky
November 16, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Is Your Recommender Shooting in the Dark?
And Why Did Jensen Huang Decide to Invest in a Causal AI Startup?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #RecSysSky #MLSky #AISky
And Why Did Jensen Huang Decide to Invest in a Causal AI Startup?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #RecSysSky #MLSky #AISky
Great perspective from #CDSM2025: causal inference is 'what-if' analysis. You don’t have to get everything perfect—or how dare you use the c-word. What matters is laying out your assumptions transparently and showing us what happens when they're violated.
November 15, 2025 at 7:10 PM
How would you approach a causal modeling problem where precise spatial (longitude and latitude) and temporal data is available?
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
November 10, 2025 at 9:39 AM
How would you approach a causal modeling problem where precise spatial (longitude and latitude) and temporal data is available?
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Would you aggregate it?
If so, you would not be alone.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Bandits, Spillover Effects, Carry-Overs, and...
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
November 9, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Bandits, Spillover Effects, Carry-Overs, and...
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
- David Rohde on the value and justification of being pessimistic in bandit problems
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #RecSysSky #EpiSky #StatSky
November 8, 2025 at 9:30 AM
November 7, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Did you know that @dagophile.bsky.social has this great series of videos on causality?
I really enjoy them!
#CausalSky #StatSky
I really enjoy them!
#CausalSky #StatSky
What does it mean to assign probabilities to causal parameters? In just one minute and 33 seconds, I explain why this is puzzling, and how you can nevertheless make sense of it.
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
How to make sense of probabilities over causal parameters
YouTube video by Causal Foundations
youtu.be
November 6, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Did you know that @dagophile.bsky.social has this great series of videos on causality?
I really enjoy them!
#CausalSky #StatSky
I really enjoy them!
#CausalSky #StatSky
⛓️💥 AI: Regulate or Let it Make a Splash?
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
November 6, 2025 at 9:30 AM
⛓️💥 AI: Regulate or Let it Make a Splash?
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
The ancient trade-off between freedom and safety
Full episode: vist.ly/4d56z
🧠 AI's Big Problem: Does It Understand the Consequences?
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
November 5, 2025 at 9:30 AM
🧠 AI's Big Problem: Does It Understand the Consequences?
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
Should Humans Delegate Their Decisions to AI Systems?
Full episode: vist.ly/4cxsf
For the last 50 years, we've designed cars to be safe...
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
November 5, 2025 at 8:16 AM
For the last 50 years, we've designed cars to be safe...
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
For the 50th-percentile male.
Well, that's actually not 100% correct.
According to Stanford's report**, we introduced "female" crash test dummies in the 1960s, but...
1/
#CausalSky #ScienceSky #MLSky #EpiSky #StatSky #AISky
AI: Is Moral Reasoning Possible Without Causal Reasoning?
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
November 3, 2025 at 9:30 AM
AI: Is Moral Reasoning Possible Without Causal Reasoning?
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
Perhaps.
Consequentialist view on ethics require us to consider how our actions will affect others and/or the environment in which we act.
1/
#CausalSky #MLSky #AISky #EconSky #StatSky
Can Game Theory Help Us with Causal Discovery?
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
November 2, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Can Game Theory Help Us with Causal Discovery?
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
What's Your Guess?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly, expect a solid mix of history, fresh discoveries, and good teaching:
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #StatSky #MLSky #EpiSky
For the last 24 months, I've been waiting patiently for LLMs to take my data science job...
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
October 31, 2025 at 9:29 AM
For the last 24 months, I've been waiting patiently for LLMs to take my data science job...
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
And I’m still here, with more work than I really want (and perhaps more than I ever had).
What's the missing element that makes LLMs go extinct in a simulation?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #MLSky #EpiSky
What's the Hassle with Positivity?
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
October 27, 2025 at 9:30 AM
What's the Hassle with Positivity?
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
And Why This Confusing Name?
Positivity (also known as overlap -- perhaps a better name) is one of the most fundamental assumptions for a broad variety of causal inference methods.
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky
Is a decision rule the same as a world model?
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
October 26, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Is a decision rule the same as a world model?
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
And can we build a unified notion of causality beyond the divides?
In this week's issue of Causal Python Weekly:
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #EconSky
The program for #CDSM2025 is now live! Join us online this November for two days of talks and discussions on #Causality, #DataScience, and #AI. 🚨👇
🎉 The program for this year's Causal Data Science Meeting (#CDSM2025) is now live!
📅 Nov 12–13, 2025 | 💻 Online | 🎟️ Free registration
Join us for two days of talks and debates at the intersection of causality, data science, and AI.
👉 causalscience.org
📅 Nov 12–13, 2025 | 💻 Online | 🎟️ Free registration
Join us for two days of talks and debates at the intersection of causality, data science, and AI.
👉 causalscience.org
October 23, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Building DAGs for supply chain: always fun, sometimes a challenge
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
October 22, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Building DAGs for supply chain: always fun, sometimes a challenge
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
If you have experience with causal analysis for supply chains -- what's one lesson that you'd share with your intern on day 1?
For me it'd be: be explicit about time order
#CausalSky #SupplyChain #StatSky #MLSky
Can 5g of creatine improve your IQ scores?
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
October 22, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Can 5g of creatine improve your IQ scores?
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
Spoiler: Probably not, but here’s one thing that can improve your causal inferences
When we design and analyze randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) using the traditional frequentist framework, we often focus on p-values
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #ABTest
Causal discovery too computationally expensive?
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
October 20, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Causal discovery too computationally expensive?
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
Maybe it's time to (re)LOAD?
Global causal discovery aims to recover a complete** causal graph from the data
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky
Have you ever wondered what causality really is?
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
October 19, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Have you ever wondered what causality really is?
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
In this week's issue of causalpython.io Weekly:
1. David Rohde on whether it makes sense to talk about "causality" as a unified concept
1/
#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky
Looking for a causality-related PhD program?
@tobigerstenberg.bsky.social might have something for you!
#CausalSky #StatSky
@tobigerstenberg.bsky.social might have something for you!
#CausalSky #StatSky
The Causality in Cognition Lab at Stanford University is recruiting PhD students this cycle!
We are a supportive team who happened to wear bluesky appropriate colors for the lab photo (this wasn't planned). 💙
Lab info: cicl.stanford.edu
Application details: psychology.stanford.edu/admissions/p...
We are a supportive team who happened to wear bluesky appropriate colors for the lab photo (this wasn't planned). 💙
Lab info: cicl.stanford.edu
Application details: psychology.stanford.edu/admissions/p...
October 18, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Looking for a causality-related PhD program?
@tobigerstenberg.bsky.social might have something for you!
#CausalSky #StatSky
@tobigerstenberg.bsky.social might have something for you!
#CausalSky #StatSky