Naftali Weinberger
@dagophile.bsky.social
Interested in all things causal modeling. Ongoing projects on causal analyses of discrimination and on causation in dynamical systems.
Pinned
Naftali Weinberger
@dagophile.bsky.social
· Oct 22
Selected papers
Timescale: tinyurl.com/2rpj7874
DCMs: tinyurl.com/2s3p2wuh
Discrimination: tinyurl.com/yscv658e
Mediation: tinyurl.com/3hz3rca8
Faithfulness: tinyurl.com/3n3de87m
Causation and Time: tinyurl.com/58cfcw2r
Psychometrics: tinyurl.com/ynjaf5xv
Timescale: tinyurl.com/2rpj7874
DCMs: tinyurl.com/2s3p2wuh
Discrimination: tinyurl.com/yscv658e
Mediation: tinyurl.com/3hz3rca8
Faithfulness: tinyurl.com/3n3de87m
Causation and Time: tinyurl.com/58cfcw2r
Psychometrics: tinyurl.com/ynjaf5xv
I'm having so much fun writing this paper! For too long I was too intimidated to engage in depth with the philosophy of physics literature, but since the general quality of work in it is so high, that eases the entry into the conversation.
January 30, 2026 at 4:57 PM
I'm having so much fun writing this paper! For too long I was too intimidated to engage in depth with the philosophy of physics literature, but since the general quality of work in it is so high, that eases the entry into the conversation.
Has anyone explored the possibility that the decline of the film industry is solely due to the irreplaceable loss of James Rebhorn in 2014?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_R...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_R...
James Rebhorn - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
January 6, 2026 at 3:29 AM
Has anyone explored the possibility that the decline of the film industry is solely due to the irreplaceable loss of James Rebhorn in 2014?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_R...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_R...
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
With the precision of a philosopher and the geekiness of a game-lover, Thi Nguyen shows how gaming has quietly colonized the rest of our lives. Required reading for understanding how values are being redefined through metrics, rankings, and scoring. www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/735252...
The Score by C. Thi Nguyen: 9780593655658 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
A philosophy of games to help us win back control over what we value The philosopher C. Thi Nguyen—one of the leading experts on the philosophy of games and the philosophy of data—takes us...
www.penguinrandomhouse.com
January 5, 2026 at 8:09 PM
With the precision of a philosopher and the geekiness of a game-lover, Thi Nguyen shows how gaming has quietly colonized the rest of our lives. Required reading for understanding how values are being redefined through metrics, rankings, and scoring. www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/735252...
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
So much stupid stuff happens when your institutions are motivated by the haunting fear that someone, somewhere is getting something they don't deserve.
This report in Nature on the costs of competing for & administering scientific grants is shocking: "In other words, European taxpayers will have spent more on the funding process than on the funding itself, and the scientific ecosystem has been drained." www.nature.com/articles/d41... 🧪
Point of no returns: researchers are crossing a threshold in the fight for funding
With so little money to go round, the costs of competing for grants can exceed what the grants are worth. When that happens, nobody wins.
www.nature.com
January 2, 2026 at 2:55 PM
So much stupid stuff happens when your institutions are motivated by the haunting fear that someone, somewhere is getting something they don't deserve.
I'm kind of fascinated by the attempt to tank the score on this (see the number of 1 scores). What corner of the internet is spearheading this? And am I just revealing my coastal liberal bubble when I wonder if it's a response to the coming out scene? Also,...
www.imdb.com/title/tt2191...
www.imdb.com/title/tt2191...
"Stranger Things" Chapter Seven: The Bridge (TV Episode 2025) ⭐ 5.4 | Drama, Fantasy, Horror
1h 6m | TV-14
www.imdb.com
December 31, 2025 at 7:29 PM
I'm kind of fascinated by the attempt to tank the score on this (see the number of 1 scores). What corner of the internet is spearheading this? And am I just revealing my coastal liberal bubble when I wonder if it's a response to the coming out scene? Also,...
www.imdb.com/title/tt2191...
www.imdb.com/title/tt2191...
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
What's this? Another confounded tree? 10/10 and a very merry Multistage Simpson's Paradox Machine* from all of us here at WeRateDAGs!
*Pearl, J. (2014) 'Comment: Understanding Simpson’s Paradox' The American Statistician, 68(1):8-13
*Pearl, J. (2014) 'Comment: Understanding Simpson’s Paradox' The American Statistician, 68(1):8-13
December 20, 2025 at 6:31 PM
What's this? Another confounded tree? 10/10 and a very merry Multistage Simpson's Paradox Machine* from all of us here at WeRateDAGs!
*Pearl, J. (2014) 'Comment: Understanding Simpson’s Paradox' The American Statistician, 68(1):8-13
*Pearl, J. (2014) 'Comment: Understanding Simpson’s Paradox' The American Statistician, 68(1):8-13
Signs that the author knows the person they're citing -- accidentally using the first name :)
December 17, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Signs that the author knows the person they're citing -- accidentally using the first name :)
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
It's astonishing how a technology called artificial intelligence has revealed the actual stupidity of so many people. This tweet hasn't been bettered
December 17, 2025 at 6:40 PM
It's astonishing how a technology called artificial intelligence has revealed the actual stupidity of so many people. This tweet hasn't been bettered
I think I need to write something on "over-control" -- cases where the ability to fine-grain intervene reduces the variance (i.e. risk aversion) in a way that's long-term suboptimal. Very related to Alison's work on children exploring (vs. exploiting), and I'm starting to see it everywhere.
Excellent piece from Kelsey Piper at The Argument. How getting richer made teenagers less free . I really like The Argument, in general, worth checking out.
open.substack.com/pub/theargum...
open.substack.com/pub/theargum...
How getting richer made teenagers less free
We value children more than ever. But we're suffocating them.
open.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 5:03 PM
I think I need to write something on "over-control" -- cases where the ability to fine-grain intervene reduces the variance (i.e. risk aversion) in a way that's long-term suboptimal. Very related to Alison's work on children exploring (vs. exploiting), and I'm starting to see it everywhere.
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
Some cybernetic blogging to kick off the holidays: why does framing decision, design, and discovery as optimization remain so irresistible?
Frame by Frame
Optimization vs systems-level synthesis
www.argmin.net
December 17, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Some cybernetic blogging to kick off the holidays: why does framing decision, design, and discovery as optimization remain so irresistible?
😂. The issue of disentangling the causal effects of age is conceptually rich, and entirely untouched by philosophers.
Why don't you look at the age development of this construct, they said. It will be fun, they said.
December 16, 2025 at 3:36 PM
😂. The issue of disentangling the causal effects of age is conceptually rich, and entirely untouched by philosophers.
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
The richest man in the world has killed hundreds of thousands of the poorest children in the world
I think this is one of the most evil--and definitely the most anti-christian--acts in human history
I think this is one of the most evil--and definitely the most anti-christian--acts in human history
This fetid landmark, this historical stain on humanity is primarily due to the stunningly reckless obliteration of America's foreign assistance agency earlier this year.
Led by the richest man on earth. In secret, on a weekend. With zero analysis or discussion of its catastrophic impacts.
Led by the richest man on earth. In secret, on a weekend. With zero analysis or discussion of its catastrophic impacts.
For First Time in Decades, Child Deaths Will Rise This Year
Almost a quarter of a million more children around the world are projected to die in 2025 than in 2024.
www.wsj.com
December 4, 2025 at 8:19 PM
The richest man in the world has killed hundreds of thousands of the poorest children in the world
I think this is one of the most evil--and definitely the most anti-christian--acts in human history
I think this is one of the most evil--and definitely the most anti-christian--acts in human history
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
🚨🚨🚨
Our 52nd Annual Meeting will be held from June 18–20, 2026 at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, MD, with a pre-conference on Mental Control and Agency held at JHU on June 17
🚨🚨🚨
We are currently inviting submissions of papers (talks and posters)!
Our 52nd Annual Meeting will be held from June 18–20, 2026 at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, MD, with a pre-conference on Mental Control and Agency held at JHU on June 17
🚨🚨🚨
We are currently inviting submissions of papers (talks and posters)!
November 22, 2025 at 11:04 PM
🚨🚨🚨
Our 52nd Annual Meeting will be held from June 18–20, 2026 at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, MD, with a pre-conference on Mental Control and Agency held at JHU on June 17
🚨🚨🚨
We are currently inviting submissions of papers (talks and posters)!
Our 52nd Annual Meeting will be held from June 18–20, 2026 at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, MD, with a pre-conference on Mental Control and Agency held at JHU on June 17
🚨🚨🚨
We are currently inviting submissions of papers (talks and posters)!
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
1/2
New open access paper in which we apply the Nyquist-Shannon thereom from signal processing to 2 EMA datasets to figure out the optimal sampling frequency for EMA assessments.
🧪 #psychscisky #statssky
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
New open access paper in which we apply the Nyquist-Shannon thereom from signal processing to 2 EMA datasets to figure out the optimal sampling frequency for EMA assessments.
🧪 #psychscisky #statssky
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Optimizing the frequency of ecological momentary assessments using signal processing | Psychological Medicine | Cambridge Core
Optimizing the frequency of ecological momentary assessments using signal processing - Volume 55
www.cambridge.org
November 27, 2025 at 12:04 AM
1/2
New open access paper in which we apply the Nyquist-Shannon thereom from signal processing to 2 EMA datasets to figure out the optimal sampling frequency for EMA assessments.
🧪 #psychscisky #statssky
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
New open access paper in which we apply the Nyquist-Shannon thereom from signal processing to 2 EMA datasets to figure out the optimal sampling frequency for EMA assessments.
🧪 #psychscisky #statssky
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Can't really explain it, but I think of watching TV as kind of like looking into someone's living room, reading a book as having a conversation, listening to a podcast as like overhearing to a conversation, and listening to the radio like listening to a public speech.
November 21, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Can't really explain it, but I think of watching TV as kind of like looking into someone's living room, reading a book as having a conversation, listening to a podcast as like overhearing to a conversation, and listening to the radio like listening to a public speech.
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
Our special issue on Evolutionary Functions of Consciousness, coedited with Tecumseh Fitch and Adina Roskies, now online royalsocietypublishing.org/toc/rstb/202...
Contributions by (1) Irina Mikhalevich; (2) Eva Jablonka and Simona Ginsburg; (3) Nicholas Humphrey; (cont'd)
Contributions by (1) Irina Mikhalevich; (2) Eva Jablonka and Simona Ginsburg; (3) Nicholas Humphrey; (cont'd)
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences: Vol 380, No 1939
royalsocietypublishing.org
November 13, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Our special issue on Evolutionary Functions of Consciousness, coedited with Tecumseh Fitch and Adina Roskies, now online royalsocietypublishing.org/toc/rstb/202...
Contributions by (1) Irina Mikhalevich; (2) Eva Jablonka and Simona Ginsburg; (3) Nicholas Humphrey; (cont'd)
Contributions by (1) Irina Mikhalevich; (2) Eva Jablonka and Simona Ginsburg; (3) Nicholas Humphrey; (cont'd)
This week's episode is on the Manipulation Theorem, which is not well-known in the broader causal community, but has hugely influenced philosophers. I cover hard vs soft interventions, why causation doesn't require human agents, and whether causation requires open systems.
youtu.be/fg1ApidilVM
youtu.be/fg1ApidilVM
E9: Using Causal Graphs to Change the World
YouTube video by Causal Foundations
youtu.be
November 14, 2025 at 5:57 PM
This week's episode is on the Manipulation Theorem, which is not well-known in the broader causal community, but has hugely influenced philosophers. I cover hard vs soft interventions, why causation doesn't require human agents, and whether causation requires open systems.
youtu.be/fg1ApidilVM
youtu.be/fg1ApidilVM
"Are we the baddies?"
November 9, 2025 at 12:03 AM
"Are we the baddies?"
I was honored to be asked to comment on David's talk. Many of you know him from his philosophy of physics work, though my interaction goes back to his teaching the 1st course I took in philosophy of science.
Full talk in Sean's link. For my commentary, start here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
Full talk in Sean's link. For my commentary, start here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
November 8, 2025 at 5:17 PM
I was honored to be asked to comment on David's talk. Many of you know him from his philosophy of physics work, though my interaction goes back to his teaching the 1st course I took in philosophy of science.
Full talk in Sean's link. For my commentary, start here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
Full talk in Sean's link. For my commentary, start here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
Continuing our drive to rate the classics, here are two maximally LA-coded suburban DAGs from Judea Pearl. There's thirsty lawns and sprinklers, burglars and earthquakes, and neighbors who call you if your alarm goes off.
9/10 because there's no mention of the traffic.
9/10 because there's no mention of the traffic.
November 8, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Continuing our drive to rate the classics, here are two maximally LA-coded suburban DAGs from Judea Pearl. There's thirsty lawns and sprinklers, burglars and earthquakes, and neighbors who call you if your alarm goes off.
9/10 because there's no mention of the traffic.
9/10 because there's no mention of the traffic.
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
Kids don't need us to be their buddies. They need us to be what our teachers were—firm, fair, and just a little out of touch. Someone's got to show them how to age with style.
Last week I asked my students to create some memes and I realized with a certain degree of horror that the classic meme templates I suggested meant nothing to them.
I have become that Principal Skinner “am I out of touch?” meme. Which they also wouldn’t recognize.
I have become that Principal Skinner “am I out of touch?” meme. Which they also wouldn’t recognize.
I made a “how do you do, fellow kids?” joke to someone in their mid 20s who, it turns out, was too young to have heard of that meme.
So “how do you do, fellow kids?” is now an example of “how do you do, fellow kids?”
So “how do you do, fellow kids?” is now an example of “how do you do, fellow kids?”
November 8, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Kids don't need us to be their buddies. They need us to be what our teachers were—firm, fair, and just a little out of touch. Someone's got to show them how to age with style.
I'm revising a paper, and I still haven't managed to force myself to remove a snarky comment that doesn't seem uber-professional, but which best captures the reaction I'm trying to pre-empt. What do y'all think?
November 7, 2025 at 6:23 PM
I'm revising a paper, and I still haven't managed to force myself to remove a snarky comment that doesn't seem uber-professional, but which best captures the reaction I'm trying to pre-empt. What do y'all think?
We swear that Bielefeld exists! We even had a speaker coming from there. And his train was delayed. In Bielefeld! Which totally exists!
November 6, 2025 at 5:54 PM
We swear that Bielefeld exists! We even had a speaker coming from there. And his train was delayed. In Bielefeld! Which totally exists!
What does it mean to assign probabilities to causal parameters? In just one minute and 33 seconds, I explain why this is puzzling, and how you can nevertheless make sense of it.
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
How to make sense of probabilities over causal parameters
YouTube video by Causal Foundations
youtu.be
November 6, 2025 at 4:25 PM
What does it mean to assign probabilities to causal parameters? In just one minute and 33 seconds, I explain why this is puzzling, and how you can nevertheless make sense of it.
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg
Reposted by Naftali Weinberger
Next talk from the #NaturalPhilosophy Symposium is David Albert on Fundamental Laws of Physics and the Idea of Agency, with commentary by Naftali Weinberger @dagophile.bsky.social.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
November 5, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Next talk from the #NaturalPhilosophy Symposium is David Albert on Fundamental Laws of Physics and the Idea of Agency, with commentary by Naftali Weinberger @dagophile.bsky.social.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...