Ant Breach
@antbreach.bsky.social
Director of Policy and Research at Centre for Cities, working on Housing, Planning, Devolution. Stuff on Ukraine + Eastern Europe and Japan + East Asia too. YIMBY. Views own etc. 🥑🇺🇦
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Ant Breach
@antbreach.bsky.social
· Nov 14
Instead the Government should treat big cities and the shires differently. Combined authority style structures work for the big cities, and move to single tier county government in the shires, as we've set out in our briefing Economy First: www.centreforcities.org/publication/...
It is probably too low for large parts of Inner London. This is the problem with trying to run local finance entirely from central government. Different property tax rates are suitable for different places, but central gov doesn't have the insight or ability to get it correct everywhere.
Either you support a tax on wealthier people or you don’t.
on.ft.com/44azcE6 Rachel Reeves under pressure to scale back Budget raid on expensive homes
on.ft.com/44azcE6 Rachel Reeves under pressure to scale back Budget raid on expensive homes
November 21, 2025 at 1:38 PM
It is probably too low for large parts of Inner London. This is the problem with trying to run local finance entirely from central government. Different property tax rates are suitable for different places, but central gov doesn't have the insight or ability to get it correct everywhere.
Reposted by Ant Breach
V good this. Would add: we also need to demolish more!
British cities are too flat — and it’s holding back housing supply.
Our new blog shows a big density gap with France and Japan, driven by missing mid-rise homes.
Read more 👉 buff.ly/mm3GBRX
Our new blog shows a big density gap with France and Japan, driven by missing mid-rise homes.
Read more 👉 buff.ly/mm3GBRX
November 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
V good this. Would add: we also need to demolish more!
Reposted by Ant Breach
Great data in this thread.
And 100%, we never demolish any Victorian terraced houses, even if wrecked, its like they are sacred temples.
And 100%, we never demolish any Victorian terraced houses, even if wrecked, its like they are sacred temples.
(Incidentally this is because we demolish hardly anything. Contrary to claims that Britain is "addicted" to demolition, we only demolish 0.02 per cent of stock every year - 1 in every 5,000 homes)
November 20, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Great data in this thread.
And 100%, we never demolish any Victorian terraced houses, even if wrecked, its like they are sacred temples.
And 100%, we never demolish any Victorian terraced houses, even if wrecked, its like they are sacred temples.
Reposted by Ant Breach
Ah, but what price can we put on Birmingham successfully protecting its character while Japanese and French cities lose theirs through overdevelopment in pursuit of high quality modern and affordable housing in more prosperous and liveable cities?
The reason is because the built form of the urban core *outside the city centre* of British big cities is essentially frozen.
This is totally different to French and Japanese big cities which see construction across their urban core.
This is totally different to French and Japanese big cities which see construction across their urban core.
November 20, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Ah, but what price can we put on Birmingham successfully protecting its character while Japanese and French cities lose theirs through overdevelopment in pursuit of high quality modern and affordable housing in more prosperous and liveable cities?
Reposted by Ant Breach
You love brownfield? Name three petrol stations you'd demolish.
Everybody loves brownfield-first. But where exactly should we densify our cities? And how?
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
November 20, 2025 at 12:48 PM
You love brownfield? Name three petrol stations you'd demolish.
Thanks! We call for smaller space standards to address that point. We touch on viability a little in the paper itself but previous research of ours has focused on the viability question www.centreforcities.org/publication/...
Restarting housebuilding III: New towns and land value capture - Centre for Cities
This report identifies possible locations for large-scale urban extensions each with good access to one of 15 big cities by public transport.
www.centreforcities.org
November 20, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Thanks! We call for smaller space standards to address that point. We touch on viability a little in the paper itself but previous research of ours has focused on the viability question www.centreforcities.org/publication/...
If you'd like to find out more, check out the report (with even more charts) in the OP, or sign up to our event in twenty minutes here: bsky.app/profile/cent...
🚀LAUNCH EVENT | Flat Britain: The urban density gap and how to solve it
We'll explore where higher densities could be expected in UK cities, and what policies and other mechanisms can help deliver higher density development.
Book your place 👉https://buff.ly/46BR2Ks
We'll explore where higher densities could be expected in UK cities, and what policies and other mechanisms can help deliver higher density development.
Book your place 👉https://buff.ly/46BR2Ks
November 20, 2025 at 12:34 PM
If you'd like to find out more, check out the report (with even more charts) in the OP, or sign up to our event in twenty minutes here: bsky.app/profile/cent...
This is a big problem and it will require big changes to fix it. But the politics for planning reform have never been better, and the evidence never clearer. If we want a richer country with cheaper housing, we need more apartment buildings in British big cities.
November 20, 2025 at 12:33 PM
This is a big problem and it will require big changes to fix it. But the politics for planning reform have never been better, and the evidence never clearer. If we want a richer country with cheaper housing, we need more apartment buildings in British big cities.
Local government and the metro mayors need to:
Think about the wider urban core (not just boroughs and sites) and embrace rules-based decision-making
Intervene with national government to derisk densification in the biggest cities where there should be latent demand
Think about the wider urban core (not just boroughs and sites) and embrace rules-based decision-making
Intervene with national government to derisk densification in the biggest cities where there should be latent demand
November 20, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Local government and the metro mayors need to:
Think about the wider urban core (not just boroughs and sites) and embrace rules-based decision-making
Intervene with national government to derisk densification in the biggest cities where there should be latent demand
Think about the wider urban core (not just boroughs and sites) and embrace rules-based decision-making
Intervene with national government to derisk densification in the biggest cities where there should be latent demand
National Government needs to:
Replace the TCPA 1947 discretionary planning system with a new flexible zoning system
Go as bold as they can on their current within-system planning reform agenda
Replace the TCPA 1947 discretionary planning system with a new flexible zoning system
Go as bold as they can on their current within-system planning reform agenda
November 20, 2025 at 12:32 PM
National Government needs to:
Replace the TCPA 1947 discretionary planning system with a new flexible zoning system
Go as bold as they can on their current within-system planning reform agenda
Replace the TCPA 1947 discretionary planning system with a new flexible zoning system
Go as bold as they can on their current within-system planning reform agenda
So, what needs to change? We need to:
Focus on the big cities, particularly the big cities outside London
Density outside the city centres, but not the outer suburbs
Make it much easier to build new mid-rise flats
Focus on the big cities, particularly the big cities outside London
Density outside the city centres, but not the outer suburbs
Make it much easier to build new mid-rise flats
November 20, 2025 at 12:32 PM
So, what needs to change? We need to:
Focus on the big cities, particularly the big cities outside London
Density outside the city centres, but not the outer suburbs
Make it much easier to build new mid-rise flats
Focus on the big cities, particularly the big cities outside London
Density outside the city centres, but not the outer suburbs
Make it much easier to build new mid-rise flats
This matters as the underperformance of the big cities outside London is a key reason the British economy underperforms.
We need denser big cities to increase their efficiency, as the only alternative is lots more sprawl made viable by extensive urban motorways
We need denser big cities to increase their efficiency, as the only alternative is lots more sprawl made viable by extensive urban motorways
November 20, 2025 at 12:32 PM
This matters as the underperformance of the big cities outside London is a key reason the British economy underperforms.
We need denser big cities to increase their efficiency, as the only alternative is lots more sprawl made viable by extensive urban motorways
We need denser big cities to increase their efficiency, as the only alternative is lots more sprawl made viable by extensive urban motorways
We really need big changes to achieve this. We would need to quadruple housebuilding in Manchester's urban core to close its gap in 25 years, and increase by 10x to close it in 10 years.
November 20, 2025 at 12:32 PM
We really need big changes to achieve this. We would need to quadruple housebuilding in Manchester's urban core to close its gap in 25 years, and increase by 10x to close it in 10 years.
London has a density gap of 492k with Paris and 775k with Osaka.
But as London is already quite dense, this is only a 22-35% increase in existing stock - increasing Manchester's density to Lyon's would be a 124% increase, and for Leeds to Fukuoka would be a 166% increase.
But as London is already quite dense, this is only a 22-35% increase in existing stock - increasing Manchester's density to Lyon's would be a 124% increase, and for Leeds to Fukuoka would be a 166% increase.
November 20, 2025 at 12:31 PM
London has a density gap of 492k with Paris and 775k with Osaka.
But as London is already quite dense, this is only a 22-35% increase in existing stock - increasing Manchester's density to Lyon's would be a 124% increase, and for Leeds to Fukuoka would be a 166% increase.
But as London is already quite dense, this is only a 22-35% increase in existing stock - increasing Manchester's density to Lyon's would be a 124% increase, and for Leeds to Fukuoka would be a 166% increase.
So what's the size of the prize?
There are huge gaps for some cities. Manchester has 236k fewer homes in its urban core than Lyon, Birmingham 228k fewer than Fukuoka, and Leeds 250k fewer than Marseille.
By contrast, Bristol's gap with Nantes is 31k.
There are huge gaps for some cities. Manchester has 236k fewer homes in its urban core than Lyon, Birmingham 228k fewer than Fukuoka, and Leeds 250k fewer than Marseille.
By contrast, Bristol's gap with Nantes is 31k.
November 20, 2025 at 12:31 PM
So what's the size of the prize?
There are huge gaps for some cities. Manchester has 236k fewer homes in its urban core than Lyon, Birmingham 228k fewer than Fukuoka, and Leeds 250k fewer than Marseille.
By contrast, Bristol's gap with Nantes is 31k.
There are huge gaps for some cities. Manchester has 236k fewer homes in its urban core than Lyon, Birmingham 228k fewer than Fukuoka, and Leeds 250k fewer than Marseille.
By contrast, Bristol's gap with Nantes is 31k.
Croydon's suburban design guide - which allocated the entire borough for new 3 storey flats if they follow design rules - shows the potential of reform.
But political opposition from Nimbys and candidates for Mayor killed the policy after three years - because it worked!
But political opposition from Nimbys and candidates for Mayor killed the policy after three years - because it worked!
November 20, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Croydon's suburban design guide - which allocated the entire borough for new 3 storey flats if they follow design rules - shows the potential of reform.
But political opposition from Nimbys and candidates for Mayor killed the policy after three years - because it worked!
But political opposition from Nimbys and candidates for Mayor killed the policy after three years - because it worked!
We also have lots of rules that block new homes in existing urban areas. Parking rules, vague vibes on 'overdevelopment' and new regs like the dual staircase rule and minimum space standard all make it harder to build new flats.
November 20, 2025 at 12:30 PM
We also have lots of rules that block new homes in existing urban areas. Parking rules, vague vibes on 'overdevelopment' and new regs like the dual staircase rule and minimum space standard all make it harder to build new flats.
The French and Japanese systems work differently because they have zoning systems.
As they are setting rules for development across their entire urban core, much more land is available for new flats, even if they are still banned in some locations.
As they are setting rules for development across their entire urban core, much more land is available for new flats, even if they are still banned in some locations.
November 20, 2025 at 12:30 PM
The French and Japanese systems work differently because they have zoning systems.
As they are setting rules for development across their entire urban core, much more land is available for new flats, even if they are still banned in some locations.
As they are setting rules for development across their entire urban core, much more land is available for new flats, even if they are still banned in some locations.
Our discretionary planning system thinks in terms of "sites" rather than "neighbourhoods". This means non-sites are expected to not change, and so new flats are implicitly banned nearly everywhere.
November 20, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Our discretionary planning system thinks in terms of "sites" rather than "neighbourhoods". This means non-sites are expected to not change, and so new flats are implicitly banned nearly everywhere.
So why do we see these trends?
In short Britain's planning system does two things - restricts developable land to 'one-off' sites rather than the whole urban core + imposes lots of rules that make densification hard where there are already houses.
In short Britain's planning system does two things - restricts developable land to 'one-off' sites rather than the whole urban core + imposes lots of rules that make densification hard where there are already houses.
November 20, 2025 at 12:29 PM
So why do we see these trends?
In short Britain's planning system does two things - restricts developable land to 'one-off' sites rather than the whole urban core + imposes lots of rules that make densification hard where there are already houses.
In short Britain's planning system does two things - restricts developable land to 'one-off' sites rather than the whole urban core + imposes lots of rules that make densification hard where there are already houses.
(This likely isn't due to preference - English and Welsh big cities have far fewer families *and* single people living in flats than Scottish, French, and Japanese big cities)
November 20, 2025 at 12:28 PM
(This likely isn't due to preference - English and Welsh big cities have far fewer families *and* single people living in flats than Scottish, French, and Japanese big cities)
The importance of more mid-rise in driving density can be seen by the number of people living in flats. English and Welsh cities have far fewer flats than their peers - not a coincidence Glasgow and Edinburgh are both relatively dense and have lots of flats.
November 20, 2025 at 12:28 PM
The importance of more mid-rise in driving density can be seen by the number of people living in flats. English and Welsh cities have far fewer flats than their peers - not a coincidence Glasgow and Edinburgh are both relatively dense and have lots of flats.
The important thing is that we don't need a "Barcelona-style" built form of exclusively mid-rise blocks to achieve higher densities. French and Japanese big cities have a *mix* of houses and mid-rise next to each other. That's why their densities are higher than ours.
November 20, 2025 at 12:27 PM
The important thing is that we don't need a "Barcelona-style" built form of exclusively mid-rise blocks to achieve higher densities. French and Japanese big cities have a *mix* of houses and mid-rise next to each other. That's why their densities are higher than ours.
The answer is the urban cores of French and Japanese big cities contain a jumbled mix of houses and mid-rise (four to nine storey) apartment buildings.
This urban form is rare in the urban core of British big cities - the 'missing mid-rise' is what underpins the density gap.
This urban form is rare in the urban core of British big cities - the 'missing mid-rise' is what underpins the density gap.
November 20, 2025 at 12:27 PM
The answer is the urban cores of French and Japanese big cities contain a jumbled mix of houses and mid-rise (four to nine storey) apartment buildings.
This urban form is rare in the urban core of British big cities - the 'missing mid-rise' is what underpins the density gap.
This urban form is rare in the urban core of British big cities - the 'missing mid-rise' is what underpins the density gap.